As the 2024 college football season approaches, fans and bettors alike are eagerly analyzing teams and schedules to find those hidden gems poised to outperform expectations. One of the most popular ways to capitalize on these insights is through betting on season win totals. Whether it’s a perennial powerhouse that seems underrated or an up-and-coming team ready to take the next step, identifying which teams will surpass their projected win totals can offer great value.
4 College Football Teams To Go Over Projected Wins Totals in 2024
I have chosen four teams that I believe will surpass their win totals in 2024. I have explored and outlined the key factors that could drive them to exceed their expectations this season.
Iowa o 8.5 (+160)
Iowa’s 2023 season was one of very high highs and very low lows. Last year, they had the best defense in the nation. They ranked fourth in scoring (14.8 PPG) and seventh in total defense (282.5 YPG). Turning to the other side of the ball, they had the worst offense in the nation. Their offense ranked ranked 129th in scoring (15.4 PPG) and 130th in total offense (234.6 YPG). With all of that being said, they finished the season with a 10-2 record.
17 of Iowa’s 22 starters from week one of last season are returning in 2024, and 13 of those players started in at least 12 games. This will be virtually the same defense, with their most impactful departure being CB Cooper DeJean, who was drafted in the second round of this past NFL draft.
On top of their once again loaded defense, Iowa’s offense figures to be much better this year. They hired a new offensive coordinator Tim Lester, and will have their starting quarterback Cade McNamara back, who missed most of last season due to a knee injury. With a full offseason to recover and prepare, McNamara and Lester are positioned to lead a more dynamic and effective offense. In 2021 with Michigan (his last full season), McNamara threw for 2,576 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Their schedule is fairly similar to last year in terms of difficulty, as they play many of the same teams, and swap out Penn State for Washington. The only game that the Hawkeyes will almost certainly lose is against Ohio State – the rest are genuinely up for grabs. Not only will Iowa win nine games, but they very well could eclipse the double-digit mark once again.
Colorado o 5.5 (-142)
The reason that this number is so low is because of how poorly the Buffaloes finished last season. After an impressive 3-0 start to the 2023 campaign, Colorado went 1-8 to finish the season 4-8. They showed flashes of greatness, however, they also proved that the hype from having Deion Sanders as your coach can only take you so far. They needed to add depth to their roster, which is exactly what they did.
Sheduer Sanders, the Colorado quarterback, is one of the best in the nation. The projected future first-round pick is truly a one-of-a-kind talent, who set the program’s season single passing yards record in 2023 (3,230). He will be surrounded by some of the best receivers in the nation in 2024(Travis Hunter, Wil Sheppard, LaJohntay Wester, etc).
The defensive side of the ball is where they made much more significant improvements, though. Through the transfer portal they added pass rushers such as B.J. Green and Dayon Hayes, both of whom had success in their previous programs. They also added Nikhai Hill-Green, Johnny Chaney Jr., DJ McKinney, and Preston Hodge to round of their linebacker unit and secondary.
After their season opener against North Dakota State (FCS), Colorado will not face an opponent with a winning record from last season until Week 7 when they play Kansas State. The Buffaloes have a strong chance of being 5-0 by then, needing only one more victory to surpass their projected win total for the season.
Georgia o 10.5 (-122)
The reality is that this team probably won’t lose two games this season. They are so skilled and talented on both sides of the ball. The Dawgs are returning 16 starters this fall, led by Heisman favorite quarterback Carson Beck. To put that into context, that’s the highest number of returning starters Georgia has had since 2021, and they have gone 42-2 in that stretch.
Their offense shouldn’t even skip a beat from last season and should quickly prove to still be one of the nation’s best. They are returning five starting offensive linemen all of which started more than eight games last season, and have a plethora of receiving options for Beck to target.
Something we have learned about Kirby Smart over his eight seasons as Georgia’s head coach is that he is resilient and does not like to lose. Smart and the Bulldogs were upset in the SEC championship game by Alabama last season and narrowly missed out on a playoff appearance because of it (finishing sixth in the nation). They then went on to beat the fifth-ranked Florida State Seminoles in the Orange Bowl 63-3. Expect them to show no mercy in 2024.
Like all other SEC teams, Georgia has a difficult schedule. However, unlike all other SEC teams, Georgia will be favored in all 12 of their contests, and deservedly so. They have dominating records over the past few seasons over Tennessee, Auburn, and Ole Miss – The only team I see giving them trouble is ‘Bama. Still, even if ‘Bama was somehow able to beat them, that would be one loss, resulting in Georgia finishing 11-1.
Auburn o 7.5 (+124)
This one will be close. Auburn will either win seven or eight games in 2024. It really comes down to whether or not they can improve in the fundamental areas that caused them to lose close games like against Alabama and New Mexico last year. I believe that they will improve, which is why I am taking the over here.
Last year, in head coach Hugh Freeze’s inaugural season, the Tigers finished with six wins. Their offense lacked consistency and durability, and because of this, the playcalling often looked weird and seemed out of sorts. Now, the offense, led again by senior Payton Thorne, should look completely different. The team has introduced two promising true freshmen Cam Coleman and Perry Thompson. Additionally, Freeze brought in seasoned transfers such as Robert Lewis from Georgia State and KeAndre Lambert-Smith from Penn State. The Tigers are retaining their entire running back roster, which ranked fourth in the SEC for rushing yards per game in 2023 (189.0). With the passing game anticipated to be more formidable this season and the running game expected to maintain its high level of productivity, the playcalling figures to be more relaxed and stable.
Auburn has replaced defensive coordinator Ron Roberts with former Texas A&M DC DJ Durkin. The defense boasts star potential across all three levels. Linebacker Jalen McLeod is set to be one of the SEC’s top pass-rushers, Eugene Asante is expected to excel in the new defensive scheme, and cornerbacks Keionte Scott and Kayin Lee are poised to shine in the secondary.
Auburn’s most difficult stretch will be from October 5th to 26th, when the Tigers will travel to face Georgia, Missouri, and Kentucky in that order. If they can manage to win two of those three games, this bet will hit. Apart from that stretch, outside of the SEC, the Tigers only play two Power 5 teams who had a winning record this past season.