Playoffs? Are you kidding me?! Playoffs?? Jim Mora would be shocked to hear that the FedEx Cup Playoffs are already upon us. The Top 70 scorers from this season are heading to TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee for the first of three rounds. Following the FedEx St. Jude Championship, the Top 50 will continue their quest for the $18 Million prize at the BMW Championship in Chicago. FedEx points are quadrupled for these next two events, so all 70 players truly have a chance to win the PGA Tour’s ultimate cash prize.
While the playoff rendition of TPC Southwind is still fairly new, the course has been on the PGA schedule for the past 35 seasons. In 2019, the WGC took charge of the event, changing the format from your prototypical large field and 36-hole cut to a smaller field featuring no cut. With there only being 70 golfers in the field this week, the playoffs have adopted the WGC no-cut rules. Let’s take a deeper look at TPC Southwind, its important data points, and the field it will face.
The Course: TPC Southwind
The par 70 course will be around 7,250 yards long each round. Both Par 5s will be reachable for most golfers that find the fairway. Unless for a deep pin placement, each of the four Par 3s will be below 200 yards. The 12 Par 4s are what really separate the winners and losers at TPC Southwind. Expect a winning score in the mid-teens.
Ball-striking will be as important as always. 11 holes have water in play, so accuracy off the tee ensuring safety from these hazards will be extremely important. Double bogeys can pile up very quickly with a few errant shots. The green size is noticeably lower than Tour average, highlighting not only approach play but also scrambling for when you miss. Important stats this week would include Total Driving, which highlights both distance and accuracy, Strokes Gained: Approach, Scrambling, and Par 4 Performance. Any putting success will come in handy, although Justin Thomas was able to win here in 2020 while losing strokes to the field on the greens.
Best Bets: FedEx St. Jude Championship
Scottie Scheffler Wire to Wire Win (+2000)
These days, if you’re betting on Scottie Scheffler, you’ve got to find a way to add some value! I have no doubt in my mind that Scheffler will win this week, so adding some juice with the Wire to Wire tag could be worth it. He’ll have to have at least a share of the lead after every round, but compared to the measly +330 odds to win, I believe the 20-1 is worth a shot.
Why am I so confident in Scheffler winning The FedEx St. Jude Championship, and doing so in an incredibly easy fashion? Firstly, he has somehow gotten better over the last 12 months. He ended 2023 as the second-greatest golfer in the history of the sport, statistically speaking. And yet, with his newly founded putting skills, he’s improved by over half a stroke in 2024. Had it not been for Ted Scott’s son graduating during the PGA Championship, we could have had a serious bid for a grand slam. That’s in the past, though, and Scheffler will leave no doubt in Memphis.
If he continues to putt well, this will be over by Friday. I like the value of a Wire to Wire win for Scottie Scheffler at 20-1, especially in this small field. I also think parlaying him winning with a few Top 20 finishers is another great way of multiplying his low odds. If you can’t beat him, use him!
Jake Knapp (+30000, Top 10 +1400)
Jake Knapp is the perfect fit for TPC Southwind. He fits in with the big guns that can bomb and gauge their way to victory. He comes in having struggled over the past month, but I will not complain because that means we get odds as high as these! If this event had been in March, Knapp’s odds would be cut in half, and maybe even more.
Jake Knapp’s current form is not great but he is certainly on the rebound from a rut. He peaked in February when he had a win, T3, and T4 in a span of 4 weeks. He had a stretch of 10 straight events gaining strokes on Approach. Most importantly, he hits the ball 20 yards further than the average Tour player. Knapp will have wedges in his hand on most of his approach shots, and that’s where he thrives. He’s top 10 in this field in proximity with wedges. His putter is hit or miss, but I will gladly take the chance on it getting hot at 300-1.
Jake Knapp has already shown us that he’s a winner. The 30-year-old rookie can absolutely smack the ball, which paired with his elite wedge game makes him the perfect fit for this course. If Knapp can get hot on the greens, I have no doubt he can join Rory, Scottie, and Xander as the fourth player to win twice in 2024. And at 300-1 in a small field, why not take a small chance? It could be well worth your dollar! His top 10 odds are fantastic as well. 14-1 is a crazy number in a field with 70 golfers for a guy who has already shown his ability to win!