It’s decision time. You are on the clock. The seconds are ticking down and you have to make a selection. Tough decisions are commonplace in fantasy football at this time of year and ADP battles are quite common. While it doesn’t make it any easier, the good news is that you can at least plan for some of those decisions. Current drafts have the tight end position truly dropping off after the first eight are chosen. Of course, things are progressively stronger in the top tiers, but once the ninth and tenth options are drafted, there really are more questions than answers. With that being said, should we be drafting Jake Ferguson or David Njoku?
ADP Battles: Jake Ferguson vs. David Njoku
Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
With Dalton Schultz heading to Houston last year, Jake Ferguson took full advantage at the top of the depth chart for Dallas. Ferguson turned his 102 targets into 71 receptions for 761 yards and five touchdowns. What was most notable though, is how the Cowboys utilized Ferguson.
While the offense clearly runs through CeeDee Lamb, Ferguson was second in targets last year. He finished with 21 more targets than Brandin Cooks, and there were no notable upgrades to the Dallas receiving tree. With Ezekiel Elliot sitting atop the running back depth chart, it’s clear that the Cowboys offense will be, once again, focused on the passing game.
For the most part, Ferguson was consistent last season before having a strong Wild Card game to close out the season. Granted Dallas was playing from behind, but Ferguson did catch 1o passes for 93 yards. The big takeaway here though, and the path to his real value, was Ferguson’s three touchdowns.
Despite the low regular season scoring production, it wasn’t for lack of trying. Whether it was the 20, 10, or five-yard line, Ferguson led all tight ends in targets. If a few more of those targets, or receptions, are turned into touchdowns, this becomes a different conversation.
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
The production really isn’t the largest concern here. In 2023, David Njoku seemingly capitalized on his potential and tools with a career year. Njoku was targeted 123 times and came away with 81 receptions, 882 yards, and six touchdowns. For those following Njoku’s career, the biggest question, was what took so long?
Unfortunately, and it’s unclear how much of this is a coincidence, the bulk of Njoku’s production came once Joe Flacco was under center. The problem is that Flacco is no longer in Cleveland and Deshaun Watson is back running the Browns’ offense. Just because we haven’t seen it recently, Watson is a very good quarterback who has had periods of sustained success.
While it is still Training Camp, the good news is that Njoku has kept the positive momentum going so far this summer. What’s even better, is that the connection with Watson appears to be operating in full force. The key here is that Njoku needs to continue seeing targets in the red zone. Last year, he was targeted 18 times from 20 yards and closer which was third among tight ends. On his own team, Njoku was second in targets and finished just behind Amari Cooper and his 128 targets.
With Nick Chubb still coming back from his gruesome knee injury, the Browns will likely rely on the passing game to begin the season. However, the Browns did add Jerry Jeudy this off-season so there is some concern here as it relates to Njoku.
Finals Take
For those who choose, either on purpose or by default, to wait on the tight end position, both Ferguson and Njoku are solid options. However, there are two factors that push Ferguson ahead of Njoku for me. This is the case even if Ferguson’s ADP dictates that he be drafted about a full round earlier.
Ferguson has already proven to have chemistry with his quarterback, and we know that Dallas’ offense will be focused on the passing game. He is a beast in the red zone, and there is also less competition for targets as compared to Cleveland.