Richmond certainly gave us more excitement, than good racing. When the short track package struggles, who can complain about a dramatic ending? Austin Dillon got the win last week, but at what cost? He intentionally wrecked Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin to get to victory lane. But heavy penalties were dropped on Wednesday. Dillon gets to keep his win. However, he’s no longer eligible for the playoffs and he’s docked 25 driver and owner points. It’s a heavy penalty, but it sets a precedent regarding race manipulation. There’s enough evidence to levy such a punishment. And Richard Childress Racing has already announced they’ll appeal. For this week’s action, we at least head to a larger intermediate track. Let’s re-focus and take a look at this week’s FireKeepers Casino 400 preview.
Michigan International Speedway is a larger oval at two miles in length. It’s on the bigger end of the spectrum, which is fine because just last month we watched two races at higher speed intermediates in Pocono and Indianapolis. We can also consider the remaining “cookie cutter” intermediates such as Charlotte and Vegas. But Kansas and its multiple grooves also translate very well when researching for this race.
FireKeepers Casino 400 Preview: The Top Plays
Ryan Blaney (#12 Ford)
We’ll lead off the FireKeepers Casino 400 preview with someone not named Denny Hamlin or Kyle Larson. They’ll still appear in the article, but let’s put someone new at the top, shall we? Michigan has two fairly comparable tracks in terms of size and the horsepower required to be competitive. Blaney led 44 laps at Pocono in a winning effort and then he finished third at Indianapolis. Track history is also on his side as well. Blaney has a win here from back in 2021. In the NextGen era he finished fifth in 2022 after starting P24. Then last year he started and finished ninth. Blaney is free from the storylines and drama that emerged from Richmond. For this race, perhaps it suits him well to be flying under the radar a bit.
Denny Hamlin (#11 Toyota)
Now back to our regularly scheduled programming. Hamlin was involved in the drama that unfolded at Richmond. And while Hamlin gets a ton of hate, he gave a fairly reasonable post-race interview after being screwed out of a win. If Hamlin can re-focus we’re getting him at a track he’s had plenty of success at. His last win here came 13 years ago. However, he’s been great at Michigan in recent memory. Over his last six races here, he hasn’t finished worse than sixth while leading laps in each race. He’s finished third in both NextGen races at Michigan. Hamlin had speed at both Pocono and Indy. He led 31 laps at Pocono and finished second. Then he led 21 laps at Indy but was caught in a wreck. You have to imagine he’s once again in play for a win.
Kyle Larson (#5 Chevrolet)
Larson may have some of the best Michigan track history of anyone in the field. But his best performances came prior to the NextGen car. Sure, he grabbed a top five last year here and in 2022 he finished seventh. But in 2021, he led 70 laps and finished third. Larson even managed to win three straight races at this track in 2016 and 2017. He did win at Indianapolis prior to the break, albeit in somewhat controversial fashion. But he also claimed wins this season on other intermediate tracks like Vegas and Kansas. Perhaps he can turn back the clocks a bit to his old Chip Ganassi days. But Larson and the 5-team should be bringing a fast car to this track.
FireKeepers Casino 400 Preview: Wouldn’t Bet Against Them
Brad Keselowski (#6 Ford)
Keselowski was mentioned in last week’s preview article. The result at Richmond wasn’t great, but he started deep enough in the field where he was fine for cash games and he finished 16th. Now he comes to Michigan, which his home track. He’s never won here. But he’s made it known that he desperately wants a win here. He led 15 laps in a top-five effort at this track a year ago. Even this year we saw him lead 20+ laps at both Pocono and Indianapolis. He’s had speed on the intermediates and the larger ovals might even be better for them. And there’s less pressure for him now that he got a win out of the way earlier in the year at Darlington.
Bubba Wallace (#23 Toyota)
A larger, intermediate track certainly seems to play to Bubba’s strengths. About a month ago he started P29 and grabbed a top 10 at Pocono. Then at Indianapolis, he finished fifth and led 26 laps. And some may consider Kansas to be a comparable track to Michigan in terms of it being a multiple groove track. In the first NextGen race at Michigan in 2022, Bubba actually won the pole and led 22 laps while finishing as the runner-up. And last year he may have finished 18th, but he once again led over 20 laps. There’s always risk with Bubba. But on paper, he does jump off the page as a viable play this weekend with some win juice.
Chris Buescher (#17 Ford)
Time to take a look at last year’s Michigan winner for the FireKeepers Casino 400 preview. Buescher had a career year in 2023 but is winless at the moment in 2024. He’s certainly come close but would love to get back to victory lane. He led 52 laps in that race and posted a 130.6 driver rating when he won in 2023. A month ago, he led 19 laps at Pocono and finished 11th. There’s also a belief that Brad Keselowski understands the importance of getting Buescher into the playoffs and possibly aiding him in a win. Buescher is in the middle of fighting for his playoff chances. He currently holds the last spot based on points, but a win locks him into the postseason. We know the equipment is good enough, but it’ll certainly need to be a “ceiling” race for Buescher.
The Sleepers and Values
Erik Jones (#43 Toyota)
Jones is riding a bit of a high currently. He actually signed an extension with Legacy Motor Club within the last week. Previously, he had been rumored to join Spire Motorsports next year. But this signing gives him some breathing room. Similar to Keselowski, this is considered to be Jones’ home track. Despite Legacy’s shortcomings, Jones does have a pair of top 10 finishes at his home track in the NextGen era. He didn’t have the greatest showing at Indianapolis last month, but he did finish 14th at Pocono prior to that race. Despite missing this year’s race at Kansas, his car has been sporty at times at the other intermediate tracks so the $6,700 price tag on DraftKings truly isn’t awful.
Noah Gragson (#10 Ford)
Gragson’s a tricky play almost any given week. We’ve seen this year the equipment is plenty capable of finishing top 10, including at a comparable track like Indianapolis. But he also finished top 10 at other intermediates like Vegas, Kansas, and Nashville. Gragson wrecked very early at Pocono, but the Indy result is promising. In three Xfinity Series races at Michigan, Gragson never finished worse than third. He even won at Pocono in 2022 while with Jr. Motorsports. I’m not saying he has much win equity for this race. However, there’s enough to possibly sway us to play him with a little confidence this weekend.
Corey LaJoie (#7 Chevrolet)
This one is tough. LaJoie is currently without a ride next year. He’s a likable guy but probably doesn’t deserve to be in the Cup Series. But from a DFS perspective, there’s reason for optimism. In his last six races at this track, he’s finished 23rd or better. And in the NextGen era, he’s started outside the top 30 in both races and finished top 20 in each. Moreover, he started P30 at Pocono and finished 19th. He followed that performance up at Indianapolis starting P19 and he finished 14th. I’d feel better about the play if he started deep in the field once again, but we’ll see how that shakes out on Saturday. LaJoie doesn’t appear in these articles often, but I’m fine giving him a spot in the FireKeepers Casino 400 preview.