[the_ad id=”567″]If you look up crapshoot in the dictionary, the word saves should be there right next to it. Saves are one of the most difficult statistics to predict in Fantasy baseball. Closers are one-inning specialists who in most cases, throw as hard as they can to get three outs and as a result, often run into arm trouble. There are a grand total of five closers pitching for the 30 teams in MLB who began 2016 as their team’s undisputed closer and completed the season in that role without missing any time for injury. Inexperienced closers are typically on a short leash and closers on second division teams are frequently offered as bait at the trade deadline. This is the position that is far and away the most volatile in baseball.
What lessons can be drawn from this inherently unpredictable situation? First of all, we need to recognize that in choosing closers we are paying not just for innings, strikeouts, and saves, but also relative stability. It’s difficult to predict cost-effectiveness when job security at the position is so fleeting. When choosing your bullpen, you want to balance cap considerations and point-scoring potential with the job security of your stable of closers.
Implications for Roster Construction
There are some strategies that can be employed in assembling your bullpen including starting the season with a fifth closer on your bench instead of an additional bench hitter. Because many very different strategies have been used to great effect, I’ve enlisted some top Fantrax Salary Cap players to lend their insight.
John from Pennsylvania (aka Mr. Will) was the overall Silver champion in 2014 at Fantrax –
Bryan from West Virginia (aka Cool Guys) was Overall Salary Cap Champion in 2009 and a top player at Fantrax –
As for carrying a 5th RP: I personally don’t agree with it as a strategy to start the year off with or to use for long periods. I think it limits your roster flexibility, especially once injuries start to hit. Plus, trying to predict which RP to bench each week is a fool’s errand It always seems to backfire. However, I have used a 5th RP in season for short periods. Usually when a productive RP has a minor injury that might keep him out a week or two. If I have an easy hitter drop, I’ll sometimes add a new RP, bench the injured guy instead of dropping him, and then re-evaluate the situation the next time I want to add a hitter.
Roy from Maine (aka Catcher in the Rye) is a regular on the leaderboard and finished #11 overall in the Bronze game in 2016)
My personal strategy on closers over the years has been to use a mix of RPs – generally 1 or 2 slightly cheaper (and riskier) RPs, and 2 or 3 more established RPs. Of those 2 or 3, I like to target one who I believe will give me elite save totals AND who I believe will be extreme low percentage owned. Some managers like to find that low % cheap sleeper RP, and while I’d like to find him too, I just have a different way of looking at low % RP sleeper. If you are willing to pay a higher salary, that low % sleeper may be right in front of your eyes – I’ve had Melancon the past year or two and Kimbrel and Mariano Rivera before that. As much as I don’t like to pay for a closer who costs between 2500-3000, sometimes you can find one who just dominates, and you may gain 100-150 points on your competition by year’s end.
TOP TIER
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Kenley Jansen (2790)
[the_ad id=”693″]Jansen has now improved both his strikeout rate and walk rate in each of the past two seasons, and as a fly ball pitcher, Dodger Stadium suits him perfectly. The Curacao native notched 47 saves pitching for one of the top teams in baseball. If you’re looking for a sure thing, this is as close as it gets.
Aroldis Chapman (2770)
Check out the 2016 Statcast Fastest Pitch Leaderboard for a good chuckle. The Cuban flamethrower’s 44% strikeout rate over the past three seasons is unprecedented. This young man throws a baseball with some pretty good velocity.
Jeurys Familia (2660)
In 2016 Familia notched the first 700-point season by a closer since Craig Kimbrel did it in 2013. He faces a 15-day suspension to start the season due to domestic violence concerns.
Zach Britton (2580)
Nobody has ever induced ground balls at as high a rate (80%) as the Oriole closer did in 2016. Britton’s WHIP (0.836) was higher than his ERA (0.54). Both were microscopic.
Mark Melancon (2530)
The Giants had one of the worst bullpens in MLB last season. As the reliever who has recorded the most saves in MLB since 2014, Melancon is the perfect antidote. The 32-year-old doesn’t possess the strikeout potential of others on this list, but there are plenty of low-scoring games at spacious AT&T Park with his name on them.
MID-RANGE
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Seung Hwan Oh (2400)
The former KBO star struck out 103 batters while walking just 18 in his MLB debut. Oh ran away with the closer gig once Trevor Rosenthal faltered last summer and inherits a plum job with a perennial playoff contender.
Wade Davis (2360)
You could argue that Davis was the best reliever in MLB from 2014-2015. His velocity dropped off somewhat last season, and he spent time on the DL with a strained forearm. His velocity has been down again this spring. At this point, it’s hard to tell if we’re going to see the dominant Davis or an injured facsimile of the original.
Robert Osuna (2330)
Osuna has a couple of plus secondary pitches to complement his 97 MPH heat and no real competition for the closer role in the Jays bullpen. With this 22-year-old you get job security at a mid-level price tag.
Alex Colome (2200)
Colome wound up in the closer role last spring when Brad Boxberger was injured and ran with it by posting a 47% ground ball rate and a 31% strikeout rate. While save opportunities are nearly impossible to predict, the 28-year-old Ray offers elite skills while toiling for a team likely to be involved in its share of low-scoring contests.
Kelvin Herrera (2190)
Herrera dramatically improved upon both his K/9 rate (10.75 ) and his command (1.50 BB/9) in 2016, With Holland and Davis departed, he has the potential to be a top-end closer at a mid-level price.
Cody Allen (2160)
While Terry Francona is committed to Allen as his closer with Andrew Miller putting out brush fires in the middle innings. Miller is still likely to steal enough save chances here and there to cut into Miller’s value.
Edwin Diaz (1920)
Diaz had an off-the-charts 15.3 K/9 rate as a rookie. While the Seattle closer sports a 97 mph heater, he generates swings and misses with his elite slider (38.3% swinging strike rate). There are questions about whether his rookie season is repeatable given the fact the Diaz never had a K/9 rate above 11.9 while in the minors.
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BARGAIN BASEMENT
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Raisel Iglesias (1830)
The Cuban right-hander is ideally suited to a bullpen role given his arsenal (a plus fastball and a 12 mph difference between the heat and his slider), the movement on his pitches, and his lack of stamina a starter. Unfortunately, Iglesias throws for one of the weak sisters of the NL Central and is stuck in the dreaded closer-by-committee.
Greg Holland (1800)
Holland pitched on back-to-back days for the first time this spring on Monday and Tuesday – fanning the two batters he faced on Tuesday. The 31-year-old missed all of 2016 after Tommy John surgery but has the inside track to be the Rockies closer.
Jeanmar Gomez (1780)
Gomez somehow managed to rack up 37 saves despite an ERA/WHIP of 4.85/1.456. While the journeyman reliever will start the season as the Phillies closer, Hector Neris is actually the best pitcher in the Philadelphia bullpen. Buyer beware!
Blake Treinen (1720)
On Thursday the Nationals finally revealed that Treinen was the winner in their spring closer sweepstakes. The 28-year-old sinkerballer offers the possibility of terrific cost-effectiveness as the closer on a top-3 National League squad. On the other hand, the new Nationals closer will likely have a relatively short leash given the available competition. There’s also the possibility that the Nats go get a more traditional closer at the trade deadline. I may wait and see how things pan out over the course of the season before jumping into that fire.
Cam Bedrosian (1740)
Bedrosian posted a 31% strikeout rate and with Andrelton Simmons and Danny Espinosa manning the middle infield for the Angels, his 50% ground ball rate should play well. The former first round pick’s career took off with the increased usage of his slider (32.3%). Thirty-three year old Huston Street is likely to begin the season on the DL with a strained lat and Bedrosian is hoping to run away with the job.
Neftali Feliz (1180)
The 28-year-old had a bounce-back season in 2016 under the tutelage of Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage – recording a 3.52/1.137 ERA/WHIP. While his increased velocity (96.1) and 10.2 K/9 rate are encouraging, I don’t expect his propensity to give up the long ball (10 homers in 53.2 innings) will play well in the launching pad that is Miller Park. His meager salary will produce cap space, but if you start with him on your roster be prepared to use a player claim.
SUMMARY
Closer is historically the most volatile role on an MLB team. A closer losing his job due to injury, ineffectiveness, or even a trade deadline deal are common. I generally start with 4 closers and pick up a bargain basement model (last season it was Sam Dyson at 1400) as a cheap option eventually emerges during the season. While the likes of Joe Borowski or Jeanmar Gomez can wind up being an effective Fantasy closer, try to choose closers with swing-and-miss stuff or an effective sinker to ensure that the odds are ever in your favor. While I may start with four closers, I like to finish the season with a closer on my bench as insurance against injury or ineffectiveness. Because of the volatility of the position, there is not an accepted best strategy for playing the position. My hope is that hearing from more than one Fantasy manager will allow you to take the best ideas from multiple sources and use them to put together your own plan.
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