We have now entered the top three rounds in our series. With that comes not only access to the top players in Fantasy but a longer wait between our first pick and second. When you have a top 3 pick in the draft, your success is very heavily determined by what happens in rounds two and three. As it does with picks on the opposite end of the board, we also have a quick turn and it will be key to this mock draft weighing what we need vs what others need.
Picking Third Overall in Standard Leagues
This mock draft will simulate a 10-team, 1-quarterback, standard league. The roster will consist of 2 wide receivers, 2 running backs, 1 tight end, and 1 Flex position along with seven bench slots. The kicker and D/ST picks will not be included. I’ll make my way back through the draft in reverse order over the coming weeks.
ROUND ONE
1.01- Breece Hall NYJ – RB
1.02- Christian McCaffrey SF – RB
1.03- Tyreek Hill MIA – WR
1.04- Bijan Robinson ATL – RB
1.05- CeeDee Lamb DAL – WR
1.06- A.J. Brown PHI – WR
1.07- Justin Jefferson MIN – WR
1.08- Ja’Marr Chase CIN – WR
1.09- Amon-Ra St. Brown DET – WR
1.10- Jonathan Taylor IND – RB
MY PICK: Tyreek Hill
Tyreek Hill leaves you no reason to not take him as the first receiver off the board, especially in standard leagues. In the last season two seasons for Tyreek Hill in Miami, he had over 1,700 yards receiving. While he came up shy of his 2,000-yard goal, he came awfully close and could have reached it had he not missed Week 15. Their offensive system hasn’t been overhauled and nobody has come or gone which leaves me to believe the split of touches or targets will change. Cheetah has also shown no signs of slowing down. Tyreek Hill not only has the highest ceiling amongst WRs he has the highest floor too. If you want to start your standard league draft with a wide receiver, choose Tyreek as we did in this mock draft.
ROUND TWO
2.01- De’Von Achane MIA – RB
2.02- Saquon Barkley PHI – RB
2.03- Jahmyr Gibbs DET – RB
2.04- Garrett Wilson NYJ – WR
2.05- Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI – WR
2.06- Puka Nacua LAR – WR
2.07- Chris Olave NO – WR
2.08- Derrick Henry BAL – RB
2.09- Davante Adams LV – WR
2.10- Travis Etienne Jr. JAC – RB
MY PICK: Derrick Henry
Henry continues to be a regular selection of mine in round two. Week after week in these mock drafts, I go into this draft aiming to take different players (all I still like), in order to show different paths that can unfold. Henry is just someone I keep finding in round two and can’t convince myself to take anybody else. I understand passing on him for another round if you are in a PPR league. However in standard, and even half PPR. He is the lead back in one of the few run-first offenses left in the NFL. Don’t overthink it.
ROUND THREE
3.01- Brandon Aiyuk SF – WR
3.02- Deebo Samuel Sr. SF – WR
3.03- Isiah Pacheco KC – RB
3.04- Kyren Williams LAR – RB
3.05- Josh Allen BUF – QB
3.06- Nico Collins HOU – WR
3.07- Josh Jacobs GB – RB
3.08- Drake London ATL – WR
3.09- Michael Pittman IND – WR
3.10- Mike Evans TB – WR
MY PICK: Isaiah Pacheco
This was a tough decision. I’m picking in round 3 and it’s a long break before I pick again. I haven’t picked Pacheco in any of my mock drafts thus far but it’s not because I dislike him. I feel like Pacheco gets overlooked sometimes. He is the top dog in Kansas City and the ideal back for their system. While Mahomes is full of razzle-dazzle, Pacheco is the uppercut you don’t see coming. He runs hard all the time (sometimes comically), and last season was often the punch that set up much of the offense.
Defenses should be softer for Pacheco this season. Nobody ever truly played a ‘let’s see if Mahomes can beat us,’ defense against the Chiefs, but with the speedy additions of Xavier Worthy and Marquis Brown, safeties and linebackers can’t afford to play as downhill as they used to. Pacheco may not finish as a top-five RB. He may not finish top 10 when all is said and done. However, it’s hard to imagine he finishes outside the top 15, let alone the top 20.
ROUND FOUR
4.01- Sam LaPorta DET – TE
4.02- James Cook BUF – RB
4.03- Travis Kelce KC – TE
4.04- Jalen Hurts PHI – QB
4.05- Mark Andrews BAL – TE
4.06- Kenneth Walker III SEA – RB
4.07- DK Metcalf SEA – WR
4.08- Joe Mixon HOU – RB
4.09- Patrick Mahomes II KC – QB
4.10- Lamar Jackson BAL – QB
MY PICK: Joe Mixon
Again I was tempted to go another direction. However, as I do these mock drafts, one thing keeps coming back to me. The RB falloff is real, and it comes faster and sharper than it does for WR. In a few rounds after now I find it hard to find RBs who I can trust to play consistently unless something happens. Sometimes something outside their control such as an injury.
So I decided to go RB three rounds in a row after starting with a WR in this draft. I couldn’t pass on a top 20 RB like Joe Mixon with fringe top ten upside because I might not see an RB like him available again. I can find WR2s not far off from the top receivers available in the next couple of rounds. Same with the difference in value between the TEs and QBs. If you are going to aggressively favor any position early, it should be RB.
ROUND FIVE
5.01- Jaylen Waddle MIA – WR
5.02- David Montgomery DET – RB
5.03- Trey McBride ARI – TE
5.04- Rhamondre Stevenson NE – RB
5.05- Rachaad White TB – RB
5.06- Alvin Kamara NO – RB
5.07- Aaron Jones MIN – RB
5.08- James Conner ARI – RB
5.09- D’Andre Swift CHI – RB
5.10- Cooper Kupp LAR – WR
MY PICK: Trey McBride
I was happy to see McBride fall to me a few picks later because this was the move I was considering making instead of Mixon. McBride was a top-end TE in the second half of last season, establishing a high level of trust between him and Kyler Murray. I think that chemistry will not be interrupted by the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. I think there is enough football for McBride to feast after Harrison Jr. gets his first. McBride has a legitimate chance to not just finish as one of the better TEs this year but THE best.
ROUND SIX
6.01- Raheem Mostert MIA – RB
6.02- Dalton Kincaid BUF – TE
6.03- Najee Harris PIT – RB
6.04- Zamir White LV – RB
6.05- Kyler Murray ARI – QB
6.06- Tony Pollard TEN – RB
6.07- Anthony Richardson IND – QB
6.08- DJ Moore CHI – WR
6.09- Brian Robinson Jr. WAS – RB
6.10- Malik Nabers NYG – WR
MY PICK: DJ Moore
I could just copy and paste my blurb about Moore last week because my opinion has not changed. He is the top WR on an offense that will run through Caleb Williams. Have you seen what he can do? Caleb is the rising tide that will raise all boats. The Bears offense will get a boost from Williams, and even with Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen taking some targets from Moore, the good of all these additions heavily outweighs the bad.
ROUND SEVEN
7.01- George Pickens PIT – WR
7.02- Zay Flowers BAL – WR
7.03- C.J. Stroud HOU – QB
7.04- Amari Cooper CLE – WR
7.05- Gus Edwards LAC – RB
7.06- Javonte Williams DEN – RB
7.07- Stefon Diggs HOU – WR
7.08- Joe Burrow CIN – QB
7.09- Jordan Love GB – QB
7.10- Dak Prescott DAL – QB
MY PICK: C.J. Stroud
I passed on Stroud last round and with good reason. Look back to round four. After I took Joe Mixon, the two teams who picked after me both took QBs. I knew I could take Stround in round seven, and take DJ Moore in round six. Three WRs came off the board in the next four picks.
Once again, round seven is my ideal round to take a QB. In this mock draft, I once again find C.J. Stroud. Last season as a rookie Stroud lit the football world on fire. Now he has a year under his belt, Joe Mixon behind him and Stefon Diggs to throw to. Stroud has a chance to launch himself into the top tier with Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts. He was close last season, expect a leap to put him there this year.
ROUND EIGHT
8.01- DeVonta Smith PHI – WR
8.02- Tee Higgins CIN – WR
8.03- Tank Dell HOU – WR
8.04- Nick Chubb CLE – RB
8.05- Jonathon Brooks CAR – RB
8.06- Devin Singletary NYG – RB
8.07- Chase Brown CIN – RB
8.08- Terry McLaurin WAS – WR
8.09- Zack Moss CIN – RB
8.10- Austin Ekeler WAS – RB
MY PICK: Terry McLaurin
An intradivisional trade sees Terry McLaurin and his fantasy owners as the big winners as Jahan Dotson makes his way to Philadelphia. He already was the clear-cut number-one target in Washington but now a large chunk of targets has become available and while I don’t think all will go to McLaurin, shy of another move I think he gets a big chunk of them. I talked last week about McLaurin’s year-to-year consistency and reliability. Here, serving as my first player off the bench he is another steal in another mock draft.
*I know Luke McCaffrey is a name everybody is talking about but I wouldn’t be shocked if we see a move for Brandon Aiyuk.
ROUND NINE
9.01- Tyjae Spears TEN – RB
9.02- Ezekiel Elliott DAL – RB
9.03- Jerome Ford CLE – RB
9.04- Jaylen Warren PIT – RB
9.05- Jayden Reed GB – WR
9.06- Blake Corum LAR – RB
9.07- Keenan Allen CHI – WR
9.08- Christian Kirk JAC – WR
9.09- Chris Godwin TB – WR
9.10- Rashee Rice KC – WR
My Pick: Jerome Ford
This is what I alluded to earlier. This late in the draft, all the RBs available have an asterisk. They’re either coming off a significant or still dealing with an injury, need a player ahead of them to get injured, or need to make a SIGNIFICANT leap. For Ford, his asterisk is his value has a time limit. At a certain point, Nick Chubb will return. At a certain point, he will overtake Jerome Ford in the backfield. I believe at a certain point Ford will go back to his previous role of handcuff. Still, as I’ve said before, you are drafting your team for week 1, it is not your roster for the entire season. Ford will be one of the few good RBs late in the draft with an early return in value.
ROUND 10
10.01- Trey Benson ARI – RB
10.02- Jayden Daniels WAS – QB
10.03- Brock Purdy SF – QB
10.04- Rome Odunze CHI – WR
10.05- Rico Dowdle DAL – RB
10.06- Calvin Ridley TEN – WR
10.07- Christian Watson GB – WR
10.08- Xavier Worthy KC – WR
10.09- Chuba Hubbard CAR – RB
10.10- Kyle Pitts ATL – TE
MY PICK: Xavier Worthy
Worthy has looked good in camp, working with the first-team offense frequently and his speed plays on the field in real time. It’s hard to say he is the next Tyreek Hill because we have seen so many WRs come to Kansas City and not fill his shoes. Be it Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore, or Kadarius Toney to name a few, nobody has come close to being Hill. Worthy doesn’t have to be Hill. It’s really simple what he has to do. Get open deep, and catch the ball when Mahomes throws it. He hasn’t had a WR who can do both with any shred of consistency since Hill left. Worthy represents the best chance to do that in a long time. I’ll take the risk and see if he’s up for the task.
ROUND 11
11.01- George Kittle SF – TE
11.02- Diontae Johnson CAR – WR
11.03- Caleb Williams CHI – QB
11.04- Jameson Williams DET – WR
11.05- Brian Thomas Jr. JAC – WR
11.06- Tyler Allgeier ATL – RB
11.07- Jordan Addison MIN – WR
11.08- J.K. Dobbins LAC – RB
11.09- Zach Charbonnet SEA – RB
11.10- Hollywood Brown KC – WR
My Pick: Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams feels like one of the best steals in each of these mock drafts when I come away with him. It isn’t impossible to imagine him ending the year as a top 5 QB. How often do QBs of his talent, number one picks come into the league throwing to a trio of WRs like Moore, Odunze and Allen? Talents at other positions like TE Cole Kemet and RB D’Andre Swift? When has a top pick ever had talent remotely near this around him? Williams has talent of his own and has shown the league he is legit through the preseason and camp so far. Finding a quarterback with that upside as a backup in round eleven is one of the best values of this draft.
ROUND 12
12.01- Ty Chandler MIN – RB
12.02- Antonio Gibson NE – RB
12.03- Jaleel McLaughlin DEN – RB
12.04- Ladd McConkey LAC – WR
12.05- Courtland Sutton DEN – WR
12.06- DeAndre Hopkins TEN – WR
12.07- Keon Coleman BUF – WR
12.08- Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA – WR
12.09- Tyler Lockett SEA – WR
12.10- MarShawn Lloyd GB – RB
MY PICK: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was an interesting case study last season. Watch the tape and he played well, but the opportunity was never there, buried on the depth chart behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. JSN in year two will need to overcome one of them, likely Lockett, to be fantasy-relevant. He’s had a good camp but is it good enough? I’m not sure but this late I will take the chance that it is and believe in his talent.
STARTING LINEUP
QB – C.J. Stroud
RB – Derrick Henry, Isaiah Pacheco
WR – Tyreek Hill, DJ Moore
TE – Trey McBride
FLEX – Joe Mixon
Bench: Terry McLaurin, Jerome Ford, Xavier Worthy, Caleb Williams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jaylen Wright. (13.03), Pat Freiermuth (14.08)
CONCLUSION
This is a draft that continually felt like the right place right time. After coming away with the top receiver in the draft I load up behind him with great values like DJ Moore and Terry McLaurin. Behind them added sleeper picks like Xavier Worthy and Jaxon Smith-Njigba allow me a ton of upside and time to see if they pan out.
At RB I came away with a nice three-headed trio between Derrick Henry, Isaiah Pacheco, and Joe Mixon. Those three give me three lead-backs who will be the lead rushers on their teams week after week. Jerome Ford will play a similar role, at least early in the season. He allows me some nice depth early in the year in case I have a few injuries.
I have a TE and QB who both look to continue their second-half successes between C.J. Stroud and Trey McBride. Those two players were key waiver additions to many championship teams last season and with where they were found in this mock draft, represent steals who could win me my league.
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