For the next 17 weeks, I’ll be writing the DraftKings DFS Main Slate covering both cash and GPP plays to help YOU win big. Creating a player pool usually centers around a game’s over/under, player salaries, and points allowed by skill positions. During my 8 years as a DFS player, I discovered that investing time to make the perfect lineup is so worth it when everything comes together. Week 1 is a 12-game slate featuring 5 projected high-paced games and 7 games that could make watching football tough. Without further ado, let’s this week’s cash and GPP recommendations.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen (QB – BUF): DK $8,000 vs ARI
The Bills went through a lot of change over this past off-season, losing both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis via free agency. But Josh Allen is the one constant and he’ll put the team on his back. The season opener against Arizona is such a delightful matchup. It features the third-highest O/U of (48), with Buffalo being a big home favorite (-6.5). Last season Arizona gave up the third most TDs (32) to opposing QBs (per pro-football-reference). Arizona’s secondary leaves a lot to be desired. I expect Josh Allen to have a field day and potentially be the top scorer overall.
Anthony Richardson (QB – IND): DK $6,300 vs HOU
As a rookie, Anthony Richardson showed flashes of legendary upside. Before his season was abruptly cut short, Richardson finished as a QB1 in 50% of his games played. If he can stay healthy during year two, a special season is imminent. And it all starts in division vs. Houston. The Colts are three-point home dogs and have the seventh-highest implied team total (23.25). Last year Richardson averaged 21 pass attempts per game. The Texans allowed the 10th most passing yards at 234.1 (per Pro Football Reference). If Richardson can get closer to 30 P/A, he should return value on his salary.
Baker Mayfield (QB – TB): DK $5,600 vs WAS
Last year was a renaissance for Baker Mayfield. Then Bucs offensive coordinator (now Panthers head coach) Dave Canales turned Mayfield into a viable QB option. He finished as QB10 and averaged 16.7 (FPPG). This game versus the Commanders has the biggest chance to shoot out and exceed the O/U of 44. The Bucs are -3.5 home favorites and tied with the Colts for the 7th-highest implied total of (23.25). In 2023, the Commanders allowed the most YPG of 262.2 (per Pro Football Reference). Washington also gave up the most passing TDs (39). Washington’s secondary could eventually be better, but it will not be in Week 1.
Dak Prescott (QB – DAL): DK $7,100 at CLE
Dak Prescott finished the last 10 games in 2023 red hot as a top 3 fantasy QB. However, opening the season in Cleveland as (2.5) point road dogs does not give me confidence to play him. The game against the Browns is tied for the lowest O/U of the week at (40). Cleveland was the stingiest team against opposing QBs, allowing just 164.7 passing YPG (per pro-football-reference). I would rather pay the extra $400 DK salary and play C.J. Stroud.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL): DK $7,700 vs PIT
Some would say Bijan Robinson had a solid 2023 rookie campaign; he was the RB9, averaging 14.5 (PPG). Others may argue Arthur Smith denied Robinson a top 5 season. New Falcons HC Raheem Morris is on record saying “Get the ball to Bijan as much as possible”. The Falcons open the season as (3.5) point home favorites versus Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh surrendered the 10th most rushing YPG to RBs last season (per Pro Football Reference). Bijan… time to rise up.
James Cook (RB – BUF): DK $6,900 vs ARI
James Cook was quietly the 4th leading rusher in football last year (1,122 yards). But only 2 rushing TDs. Entering year 3, Cook has every opportunity to be a premier back in the NFL. Arizona presents a juicy opportunity to lead the charge. Arizona allowed the most fantasy PPG and rushing YPG (143.2) to RBs (per Pro Football Reference). Cook has a chance to break the slate if the Bills build up a big enough lead.
Zack Moss (RB – CIN): DK $5,800 vs NE
The Bengals RB room looks a bit different heading into 2024. Joe Mixon departing for Houston left a void. Enter Zack Moss. He comes over from Indianapolis to become Cincinnati’s RB1. Chase Brown is also in the backfield sharing duties. For that reason, Moss will go overlooked. The matchup against New England is not great, but it’s ok. As (-8) point home favorites, Joe Burrow should not have to throw the ball more than 25 times. Moss could see 20+ opportunities and hit pay dirt.
Tony Pollard (RB – TEN): DK $5,900 at CHI
Tony Pollard has a new team in 2024. Hopefully, a change of scenery can return him to fantasy glory. Pollard’s week 1 matchup at Chicago is not ideal. In 2023, Chicago allowed the fewest rushing YPG to RBs. In addition, Chicago gave up the 2nd fewest rushing TDs (per Pro Football Reference). The Titans are (-4) point road dogs. For $200 DK salary more, Ken Walker is a play I would pivot to.
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA): DK $8,700 vs JAC
Tyreek Hill is a nightmare to game plan against. A difference maker and slate breaker. The Jaguars-Dolphins game is tied for the highest O/U of (49). Miami has the second-highest implied team total (26.5) and are (-3) point home favorites. In Hill’s seven home games played last year, he averaged 7.7 receptions, 131 YPG, and 0.71 TDs. Jacksonville gave up the 12th most fantasy points to WRs last year. Good luck Jags secondary trying to stop the man known as Cheetah.
Nico Collins (WR – HOU): DK $7,000 at IND
Let me just say this…Nico Collins is underpriced. Perhaps his salary is suppressed because Stefon Diggs was added to the Texans’ WR room. Whatever the reason is, I will take the discount. Collins should be priced $500-800 higher on DraftKings. In Collins’ last two games vs IND, he posted 7-146-1 & 9-195-1. Houston is a (-3) point road favorite and has the 3rd highest implied team total (25.75). Collins just may be my favorite point-per-dollar play (regardless of position) on the entire Week 1 slate.
Chris Godwin (WR – TB): DK $5,800 vs WAS
Chris Godwin has a lot working in his favor for 2024. Bucs new OC Liam Coen stated that Godwin will return to playing the slot. Five years ago, Godwin was the overall WR2 living inside the boundary. WR2 overall is no longer in Godwin’s range of outcomes but a WR2 finish against Washington is possible. Washington allowed the most fantasy points to WRs. Until the Commanders figure out their secondary situation, they will be a weekly DFS target.
Chris Olave (WR – NO): DK $6,600 vs CAR
One look at this game and it is easy to see why Chris Olave is my WR Week 1 fade. The Panthers-Saints game has an O/U of 40. Carolina yielded the 3rd fewest fantasy points last season. Olave’s last 2 games combined against Carolina were 10/114/1. Game script feels more like an Alvin Kamara game. Options to consider playing instead of Olave: Amari Cooper ($200 DK salary less), Nico Collins ($400 DK salary more).
Tight Ends
Evan Engram (TE – JAC): DK $5,500 at MIA
Evan Engram was a league winner last year finishing at TE2. He garnered 143 targets, averaging 8.3 P/G. If the Jaguars plan to stay competitive against Miami as a (-3.5) point road dogs, pepper Engram with targets. In 2023, Miami allowed the 7th most yards to opposing TEs (per Pro Football Reference).
Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL): DK $4,600 vs PIT
Kyle Pitts is a polarizing name. After Pitts had a disappointing 2023 campaign, folks are ready to write him off. Truth is, he was hurt and not himself. A date with Pittsburgh is an opportunity for people to buy in again. Falcons QB Kirk Cousins needs someone to throw the ball to. The Drake London matchup is not good. Pittsburgh did allow the 14th most receiving yards to TEs (per Pro Football Reference).
Zach Ertz (TE – WAS): DK $3,600 at TB
Some folks may have forgotten about Zach Ertz, but he still plays football. Ertz reunites with Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury as TE1. In 7 games played last year, Ertz averaged 6 targets and 29 receiving YPG (per pro-football-reference). Last year, TB gave up the 3rd most fantasy points to TEs. Jayden Daniels has to look Ertz way early and often.
Cole Kmet (TE – CHI): DK $4,100 vs TEN
After coming off a career year in receptions 73, yardage 719, and TDs 6, Cole Kmet is the 4th option on a brand-new Bears offense. Chicago has the 4th highest implied team total (24.25). The Titans were among the top 3 teams at limiting opposing TEs last year. Just too many question marks to play Kmet with confidence.
Top Stacks
1. Bills- Josh Allen, Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir
2. Dolphins- Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
3. Texans- C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Tank Dell
4. Bucs- Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
5. Commanders- Jayden Daniels, Terry Mclaurin, Zach Ertz
Make sure to check out all of our Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings and analysis!