The final games of the fantasy baseball season are being played this weekend. The goal of any fantasy writer is two-fold. First and foremost, the goal is to help you, the reader, improve your knowledge and take your fantasy team to the next level. Second, the selfish goal is to make sure we, as writers, are up to date and can use the time spent writing these articles to our advantage. Just prior to each season, I release an article detailing the players that I am targeting the most in drafts labeling them as my guys. However, the key to any fantasy baseball writer should be accountability. Not everything I write is going to come to fruition. However, learning from the process and seeing where things went wrong is always a good idea. This article flashes back and recaps which picks I got correct and what went wrong with the ones that were a swing and a miss.
2024 Fantasy Baseball My Guys
Catcher – Sean Murphy, Atlanta Braves
Recapping the 2024 Season:
Sean Murphy’s 2024 season could not have gotten off to a worse start, and it did not get much better as the season moved along. Murphy drew the start on Opening Day but suffered an oblique injury in his third at-bat. The oblique injury forced Murphy to miss two months, and he never seemed to regain his timing this year. After batting just .216 with five home runs the rest of the first half, Murphy moved into a timeshare with Travis d’Arnaud for the rest of the year. With just a few games left in the season, Murphy owns the lowest wRC+ of his career. His nine home runs, .196 batting average, and 87.8 mph average exit velocity are all also the lowest of his career. In his age 29 season, not many were expecting Murphy’s offensive production to fall off a cliff. Entering the season, catcher eight seemed like great value, but turns out the smart move was to stay away.
Verdict: Failure
2025 Outlook:
The 2025 outlook for Sean Murphy is a bit murky. Prior to this season, Murphy owned a career 119 wRC+ with at least 17 home runs in the past three seasons. This season was a disaster, but it is possible Murphy was dealing with a lingering injury the entire season. Looking ahead to next year, Travis d’Arnaud has a club-option and posted a 102 wRC+. The team however also has Drake Baldwin in Triple-A who hit 16 home runs this season. In two seasons with Atlanta, Murphy has averaged 88.5 games. Murphy is unlikely to ever live up to the lofty expectations fantasy managers set for him. He is a possible bounce back candidate in 2025, but is not somebody I am likely to advocate for again in 2025.
First Base – Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers
Recapping the 2024 Season:
Easy to say, 0/2 to start this recap. With Murphy, at least fantasy managers were able to stash him on the IL. Meanwhile, Spencer Torkelson remained healthy, but could not seem to recapture his magic from 2023. After hitting 31 home runs in his first full Major League season, it took Torkelson 160 plate appearances to hit his first home run this season. The lone bright spot was that Torkelson was striking out under 23% of the time, but that did not make up for the lack of power. Part of what made Torkelson an attractive fantasy option at first base was the safety net of his power. Without that, Torkelson’s fantasy value quickly bottomed out and he found himself down in Triple-A.
Torkelson came back to the Major Leagues in the middle of August. Torkelson has certainly looked better since returning although his strikeout rate is back up to 33%. His slash line over the back half sits at .250/.326/.460. Seeing Torkelson’s barrel rate jump back up is certainly nice and he has provided solid value to the Tigers down this incredible stretch run. Even with this pleasant bounce back, this was still far from the breakout season many expected to see in 2024. Torkelson was a big disappointment this season and was an unsuccessful pick of a my guy at first base.
Verdict: Failure
2025 Outlook:
The final stretch of 2024 provides a glimpse of optimism heading into 2025. The key to fantasy value at first base is power. Over his final 138 plate appearances, Torkelson was on pace for 26 home runs across 600 plate appearances. This is not nothing for fantasy managers, but his strikeout rate and batting average floor remains a major concern. Despite the high strikeout rate, Torkelson’s plate discipline was still excellent. He chased under 24% of the time and maintained a contact rate right around the rate it was at before. It will be interesting to see where Torkelson will go in 2025 drafts. As the former first overall pick, Torkelson has plenty of upside and is still just 25 years old. He has the power to hit 35+ home runs and be an anchor in Detroit’s lineup. 2024 was a disaster. Despite this, there is a chance that I might be buying right back in next season. The good part is that his draft price will be majorly discounted from where it was this season.
Second Base – Jorge Polanco- Seattle Mariners
Recapping the 2024 Season:
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. This is the unfortunate stance I have taken here in 2024. Jorge Polanco put up several solid seasons in Minnesota before being traded to Seattle this past off-season. Although Seattle marked a bit of a park downgrade, Polanco seemed primed to put up another reliable fantasy season. The season got off to a dreadful start for Polanco. At the end of April, he was slashing just .170/.314/.290 and was hitting just .195 when he landed on the IL. IL trips have become a common recurrence for Polanco throughout his career and the injury bug bit him again this season. Polanco missed just under a month of action before returning to a starting role in Seattle’s lineup.
The rest of Polanco’s 2024 season was inconsistent. He hit 11 home runs across the back half but still posted just a .232 batting average. From July 19 to August 20, Polanco slashed .277/.365/.564 giving fantasy managers the impression he was back. In his next 55 plate appearances, Polanco collected just four hits. Then from September 8 forward, he hit .276 with another three home runs. Unfortunately, inconsistencies and injuries have reigned supreme throughout Polanco’s professional career. Part of the value seen in drafting Polanco was how late he was going in drafts. Despite being drafted as 2B24, Polanco’s 2024 season still managed to be a disappointment. According to FanGraphs Auction Calculator, Polanco finished as 2B45 on the season behind guys like Jeff McNeil, Otto Lopez, and Geraldo Perdomo.
Verdict: Failure
2025 Outlook:
Typically, most players peak in production at some point in their 20s. Looking ahead to next season, Jorge Polanco will turn 32 in July and has not eclipsed 120 games played since the 2021 season. 2024 marks the third consecutive season that Polanco has seen his wRC+ drop and marks the first time since 2020 it sat below the league average. Despite the down season, Polanco managed to reach 16 home runs on the season which ranks ninth amongst all second baseman this year. However, there was far more bad than good. His strikeout rate increased for the fourth consecutive season, his batting average was the lowest of his career, and his barrel rate dropped into the single digits for the first time since 2020. Simply put, Polanco’s best days may be behind him. Coming off a down season with a $12 million team option, it is likely Polanco will be searching for a new home in 2025. His 2025 fantasy value relies entirely on his new situation and whether a team is willing to pay Polanco to be their everyday second baseman after his dreadful 2024 season.
Shortstop – Ezequiel Tovar, Colorado Rockies
Recapping the 2024 Season:
So, not all of my picks were complete busts. Part of the love for Ezequiel Tovar came from some off-season research I did looking at players who were likely to increase their home run output in 2024. After hitting just 15 home runs in his rookie season, Tovar exploded for 25 this season making good on that research. In his second season, Tovar quickly moved up Colorado’s lineup leading to 82 runs and 76 RBIs on the season. Amongst batters 23 years old or younger, Tovar’s 25 home runs ranked second behind Gunnar Henderson. Like all young hitters, Tovar went through his slumps, but he was a reliable fantasy asset for managers throughout the 2024 season.
Usually in all fantasy leagues, you have to pay up for the second-year breakout but that is part of what made Tovar such an attractive option. He was going as SS20 in drafts while being locked into an everyday role in one of the best parks for hitters to play in. FanGraphs Auction Calculator scores Tovar as the 10th best shortstop in fantasy this season ahead of guys like Corey Seager, Nico Hoerner, and Anthony Volpe who were all being drafted ahead of him. This pick was certainly a successful one for those who jumped on the Tovar bandwagon with me.
Verdict: Success
2025 Outlook:
Entering his age-23 season, Tovar has solidified himself as the shortstop of the future in Colorado. Despite posting just a 93 wRC+, his elite defense and offensive potential will keep him locked into an everyday role for 2025 and beyond. For fantasy managers, Tovar’s ability to swat 25 home runs is certainly encouraging and his prime lineup spot should ensure strong counting stats throughout the season. Tovar’s 2025 draft slot will be interesting to see. As mentioned, there are plenty of positives and at 23, he has tons of time to continue developing. However, Tovar went just 6/11 on the base paths signaling speed may not be apart of his future skillset. He also continued to post horrible whiff and chase rates which could cause issues if his BABIP falls below .344 next year. The trends in his plate discipline and stolen base metrics signal that SS10 could be near his fantasy ceiling and we never want to draft a player at their ceiling.
Third Base – Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
Recapping the 2024 Season:
This was the pick made with far and away the highest level of confidence. As mentioned in the original article, the pick here was originally going to be Noelvi Marte who was then suspended for the first 80 games of the season. The pivot and suggestion to other fantasy managers was to attack the third base position early and go get one of the elite guys. Truthfully, almost any of the big-name third basemen would have been successful. Jose Ramirez, EDLC, Rafael Devers, and Manny Machado all finished inside of the top six at the position. My preference was to draft Gunnar Henderson as the 3B5 off the board and he wound up finishing as the 3B2.
Henderson wound up posting massive numbers in his second full season. He crushed 37 homers, stole 21 bases, scored 118 runs, and drove in just under 100. He was a true five-category contributor for fantasy managers which not many other people can say. In fact, there were only five other players in all of baseball who finished with better fantasy numbers than Henderson. Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt, Jose Ramirez, and Juan Soto. That is it. Henderson is the youngest of the bunch by nearly a year. Henderson’s draft price was high, but boy did it pay off. Just imagine if he kept his first-half pace of a 170 wRC+ instead of the lowly 136 wRC+ he posted down the stretch.
Verdict: Success
2025 Outlook:
What is there even to say here? Henderson was incredible this season and is going to be incredible in 2025. At 23 years old, there is no reason to believe his speed and stolen base numbers are going to decline. He is a near lock for 30+ homers (barring injury), and he gets to play in one of the elite lineups in baseball. The only slight knock on Henderson is that he will shift to shortstop only in 2025 after maintaining dual eligibility this season. Henderson still would have ranked as SS2 in drafts so this should not alarm fantasy managers much. If you want Henderson in 2025, be prepared to pay up for him. He is certain to go in the first round of drafts next year and is going to be an early betting favorite for MVP.
OF1 – Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers
Recapping the 2024 Season:
Riley Greene was as polarizing a top prospect as they come. Greene routinely found himself toward the top of prospect ranking lists, but many in the fantasy community were skeptical he would become a reliable fantasy asset. Entering 2024, Greene had battled injuries in each of his first two Major League seasons. This combined with a suspect hit tool pushed Greene down in drafts this year. His affordable draft price and upside at just 23 years old made Greene one of the most obvious players to target. Even if Greene did not continue to develop, a season of health would surely return more than the OF40 price you had to pay for him.
Those who took a shot on Greene were nicely rewarded with Greene’s best season yet. He hit a career-best 24 home runs this year while playing in 134 games. This season, Greene walked more, struck out less, and improved his launch angle leading to a career season. Amongst players 23 or younger, Greene’s 136 wRC+ ranked second in all of baseball behind only Gunnar Henderson. This means offensively Greene was better than Jackson Merrill, Elly De La Cruz, and Julio Rodriguez this season. Now that does not equate to fantasy production, but Greene produced solid returns there as well. He finished the season as the OF24 which is much higher than where he was drafted. This was a successful pick late in fantasy drafts.
Verdict: Success
2025 Outlook:
One of the bigger knocks on Greene early in his career has been a high strikeout rate. In 2024, Greene managed to lower his whiff rate and improve upon his already impressive chase rate. These improvements led to a career-best walk rate and strikeout rate helping to improve his floor as a player. The other big knock on Greene was his launch angle which he nearly doubled in 2024. More fly balls allows Greene to tap into his raw power more. We saw this, especially down the back half of the season. If you take Greene’s final 137 plate appearances and prorate them over a normal season, he would be on pace for 31 home runs. The Tigers lineup is also improving which should lead to more counting stats in the future. Greene shed the injury-prone label in 2024 and should be a reliable fantasy asset for years to come.
OF2 – Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets
Recapping the 2024 Season:
If Riley Greene was an easy pick, Brandon Nimmo was an obvious pick to make. In 2024 drafts, a lot of Mets players seemed to be discounted but none as much as Nimmo who was going as OF44. After hitting a career-high 24 homers in 2023 with improvements to his launch angle and exit velocity, it seemed criminal to let Nimmo slide that far in drafts. This season, Nimmo continued to produce strong results despite a slow start to the season. Nimmo’s batting average certainly dipped this season (down to .226), but the rest of his profile remained stable. He hit 22 home runs and surprisingly stole 14 bases this season. His average dipped, but his OBP was still solid thanks to a 12% walk rate. Batting at the top of the Mets’ lineup helped propel Nimmo 80+ runs and RBIs for the first time in his career. Nimmo wound up finishing the 2024 season as OF23. Both he and Riley Greene proved to be valuable fantasy assets that managers were able to get late in drafts.
Verdict: Success
2025 Outlook:
The biggest area of concern for Nimmo next season is going to be his age. Nimmo turns 32 prior to Opening Day next year and could be past his best days. Although he has shed the injury-prone label, he does have a history with injuries that could come back as he ages. Although expected stats do not have a strong correlation to future production, his expected batting average and slugging percentage both dipped significantly from 2023. The possibility remains that Nimmo remains an “unsexy” pick in 2025 and is once again a draft-day value. My willingness to buy back in next season will rely heavily on what his draft price is. If he is going outside of the top 30 outfielders, he will be an easy buy next season.
Pitcher – Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles
Recapping the 2024 Season:
Grayson Rodriguez’s 2024 season was certainly interesting. Rodriguez finished the season with 20 starts, 13 wins, his strikeout rate increased, and his walk rate decreased from his rookie season. The issue is that his ERA still felt like a letdown. Rodriguez posted a 3.86 ERA with a 3.66 FIP. Really though, Rodriguez’s pedestrian ERA boils down to a few starts. There were three starts in which Rodriguez allowed 20 of the 50 earned runs he gave up all season. If you take those three starts out, Rodriguez’s ERA sits down at 2.64. An ERA that low would have certainly qualified him as a successful my-guy pick. However, inconsistent results and two stints on the IL resulted in an indifferent outcome. Rodriguez was solid for fantasy managers while he was on the mound, but this was far from the breakout many hoped for. He did not hurt your fantasy team, but he was not close to a league-winning pick.
Verdict: Indifferent
2025 Outlook:
A lat injury forced Rodriguez to miss the end to 2024 but expectations are that he will be healthy and ready to go for 2025. Rodriguez does not turn 25 until November and has already shown flashes of what his ceiling could be like at the Major League level. He has also battled inconsistencies and injuries making his future outlook a bit murky. Rodriguez could become a value in drafts next season if the prospect pedigree and name value have worn off. Fantasy managers could also push him up way too high hoping for a third-year breakout making him a player to avoid. The potential is there for Rodriguez to be a front-line starter although he will likely never become a fantasy ace.
Bonus Relief Pitcher – Adbert Alzolay, Chicago Cubs
Recapping the 2024 Season:
Readers and fantasy managers would have been better off if I did not include a bonus pick this year. Adbert Alzolay entered the season locked in as the Cubs’ closer but that quickly fell apart. Alzolay struggled with this opportunity posting a 4.67 ERA across 18 innings prior to landing on the IL. Alzolay went just 4/9 in save opportunities and quickly lost hold of the closer role. His strikeout rate plummeted below 20% with his walk rate increasing. His FIP actually suggests he was incredibly lucky and believes his ERA should have been over seven. This was a disaster of a pick and potentially the worst one here. Hopefully, you stopped reading before you got to the bottom of this article and avoided Alzolay in drafts.
Verdict: Failure
2025 Outlook:
Alzolay underwent Tommy John Surgery this past summer that will keep him sidelined through the majority of 2025. At this point, he is not on any fantasy radars and will likely need to work his way back into a high-leverage role in the Cubs’ bullpen once he is healthy.