Zigging when everyone else is zagging is the key to success in most areas of life. It is certainly true in fantasy basketball – if you do what everyone else does, don’t expect to finish ahead of the pack. Below, you’ll find a list of players who, I think, have been overrated by the masses and should probably not be drafted at the pick/price they’re available. Not all of these players are definitely going to be busts per se but there will be better options available. All rankings are for standard 8 or 9-category leagues (let’s call it 8.5-category).
2024-25 Fantasy Basketball Busts
Anthony Davis (PF, C – Los Angeles Lakers)
Last Season’s Rank: 3
This Season’s Projected Rank on Fantrax: 5
Current ADP: 7
Is it harsh to call a top 5 or a top 10 player a bust? Maybe, but building your fantasy team around such an injury-prone player is a huge risk. In 23-24, he played 76 games, sure, but that was an absurd outlier. In the 5 seasons before that, Davis played 56, 40, 36, 62, and 56 games. If you’re in a snake draft, you’d want a surer thing in the first round, and in an auction, just let Davis be someone else’s problem.
Alperen Sengun (C – Houston Rockets)
Last Season’s Rank: 76
This Season’s Projected Rank on Fantrax: 31
Current ADP: 27
Sengun is in an interesting situation in his career – on one hand, he’s been drawing comparisons with Nikola Jokic, on the other, he doesn’t quite seem to be a great fit within the Houston Rockets’ roster. And it makes total sense too. A worse version of Jokic will be a liability on defense and cause spacing issues on offense. Jalen Green, in particular, has been amazing with Sengun out of the lineup but pedestrian with Sengun on the court. So what’s the solution? The Rockets are almost certainly not going to trade Sengun and risk looking like fools. More likely, they’ll play everyone together and if they won’t come out clicking, some players might find their minutes and roles decreased.
Evan Mobley (PF, C – Cleveland Cavaliers)
Last Season’s Rank: 109
This Season’s Projected Rank on Fantrax: 43
Current ADP: 38
Evan Mobley is an excellent defensive big. The problem for fantasy basketball is that excellent real-life defense rarely pays the bills. What pays the bills is ball-in-hand creation for yourself and your teammates, which Mobley doesn’t do so there will be a natural ceiling for him in fantasy. In fact, his stats are remarkably similar to fellow Cavalier Jarrett Allen’s who is also an excellent defensive big that doesn’t create. The main difference here is that Allen can be drafted a couple of rounds later.
Josh Giddey (SG, SF, PF – Chicago Bulls)
Last Season’s Rank: 81
This Season’s Projected Rank on Fantrax: 87
Current ADP: 64
Josh Giddey is at his best with the ball in his hands. The problem is that so are Coby White, Zach LaVine, and probably even Matas Buzelis and Nikola Vucevic. There is nothing wrong with having many highly skilled players on a team but from a fantasy perspective, it will water down everyone’s stat production. In fantasy, you really want this type of player to dominate the ball on his team. And for that reason, I’m out on Josh Giddey. Now, there is a chance for LaVine and Vucevic to be traded, which could increase Giddey’s role on the team depending on who the Bulls get in the trades.
Klay Thompson (SG, SF – Dallas Mavericks)
Last Season’s Rank: 78
This Season’s Projected Rank on Fantrax: 102
Current ADP: 117
Post-injury Klay just isn’t the same. Sure, he can still shoot it (led the league in FT% last season) but the movement is gone and the defense is gone. There are three reasons why I think this year will be a major step backward for Thompson: 1) no Steph gravity to help him out, 2) the Mavs will find it awkward to play three smalls who can’t defend, and 3) Klay won’t be sought out by his teammates the way he was in Golden State.
Damian Lillard (PG – Milwaukee Bucks)
Last Season’s Rank: 23
This Season’s Projected Rank on Fantrax: 28
Current ADP: 24
The Bucks look to be outside their championship window with an aging roster and no young prospects to speak of. Even Giannis will turn 30 in a couple of months. And Damian Lillard seemed to hit the wall badly after arriving in Milwaukee. And by badly, I mean he went from a top 10 player to a top 30 player. Top 30 production would still be reasonable but if the trend holds, which I think it will, we might just see Lillard way outside of the top 30 fantasy players on a struggling team while being injury-prone. Stay away, I say.
Paul George (SG, SF, PF – Philadelphia 76ers)
Last Season’s Rank: 7
This Season’s Projected Rank on Fantrax: 28
Current ADP: 27
George is another player who just happened to have an unlikely healthy contract year. He played 74 games in 23-24 but only 56, 31, 54, and 48 in the four previous seasons. When healthy he’s been a lock for a second-round return though that’s been wavering as he’s aged. George led the Clippers in usage rate for the past four seasons, a feat that he is unlikely to repeat in Philadelphia. He’ll almost certainly be third in the pecking order – behind Embiid and Maxey. And for those reasons – injury risk and decreased role – I say Paul George will be a bust in 24-25.