It was an ugly week for my sneaky starts last week. There is not much else to say about that. This exercise is tricky by nature, but I hold myself to a much higher standard, and I hope you do as well. So, let’s look forward to this week.
We have four teams with a Week 5 bye to contend with. That could skew the percentages a bit, but the thresholds will remain the same. I am only including players who are started (as I write this) in fewer than 50 percent of Fantrax leagues. There are currently 12 quarterbacks, 25 running backs, 38 wide receivers, 10 tight ends, eight kickers, and 12 defense/special team units who are ineligible. This is right around the imaginary line at which we all make our start/sit decisions and should eliminate most of the players considered obvious starts in most formats. So without further ado, here are my Week 5 sneaky starts!
Week 5 Sneaky Starts
Quarterback
Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers
Current Start Percentage: 49 Percent (14th among Quarterbacks)
My Current Week 5 Rank: QB9
Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams are also currently being started in 49 percent of leagues. Richardson got in a limited practice on Wednesday and is questionable for this week’s divisional matchup with Jacksonville. The matchup is certainly right, as Jacksonville has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Coincidentally, Joe Flacco is only being started in four percent of leagues. You could do worse as a streamer if Richardson is unable to go.
Having said all that, I want to show some love to Justin Fields. He was last week’s top fantasy scorer at the quarterback position. Fields ran for two scores last week, which boosted his fantasy production. But while fantasy managers cannot necessarily bank on that every week, Fields could be in for a larger piece of the Pittsburgh rushing pie in Week 5. Neither Jaylen Warren nor Cordarrelle Patterson practiced on Wednesday, and Najee Harris continues to look like a JAG (just a guy). Harris’ 3.4 yards per carry is the lowest average among 14 running backs with at least 60 rushing attempts this year. Dallas ranks dead last in defensive DVOA versus the run. It would not surprise me to see Fields run for a touchdown in this game.
Fields has also improved as a passer in his tenure in Pittsburgh. He has only thrown three touchdown passes but is completing over 70 percent of his passes and averaging over 200 passing yards per game. In a week where Jalen Hurts and Jared Goff are on a bye, Justin Fields could be a sneaky start.
Other Quarterbacks to Consider
- Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
- Current Start Percentage: 31 Percent (22nd among quarterbacks)
- My Current Week 5 Rank: QB14
Running Backs
Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs
Current Start Percentage: 34 Percent (35th among Running Backs)
My Current Week 5 Rank: RB25
Kareem Hunt was not on an NFL roster three weeks ago. And he was not in the starting lineup for Kansas City this past Sunday. Yet, he finished the week as the overall RB26. Hunt took over early down duties soon after rookie Carson Steele fumbled a first-quarter carry. Hunt ended the day with 69 rushing yards, chipping in a pair of catches for another 16 yards. Injuries are hitting the Chiefs hard, and there are seemingly not a lot of players that Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid can trust. Hunt is one of them and could be in for a bigger workload, at least in the short term.
Kansas City has a Week 5 matchup against the New Orleans Saints on Monday night. The Saints are allowing 5.23 yards per carry to opposing running backs. If Hunt continues to get most of the carries, he is probably a top-30 fantasy running back by default, especially with four teams on a bye. And even though the Chiefs are not as explosive as in years past, Hunt would carry some touchdown upside. A touchdown would almost guarantee a top-20 finish among running backs this week.
Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys
Current Start Percentage: 39 Percent (33rd among Running Backs)
My Current Week 5 Rank: RB26
Rico Dowdle was one of my few hits last week, finishing at RB20. Dowdle’s touches have continued to increase, while Ezekiel Elliott’s are declining. Dowdle is not the safest start out there. But I do think he has a chance to hit again when the Cowboys face the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Pittsburgh is stout against the run, holding opposing backs to the fifth-fewest rushing yards in the NFL. However, they rank 28th in DVOA against running backs in the passing game. The Steelers have allowed opposing running backs to catch 18 of 19 targets through four games. With number-two wide receiver Brandin Cooks already ruled out for Dallas, Dowdle may be asked to carry a bigger load both as a rusher and receiver. That could get him into Flex consideration, making him a sneaky start this week.
Other Running Backs to Consider
- Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Current Start Percentage: 40 Percent (32nd among Running Backs)
- My Current Week 5 Rank: RB29
- Trey Sermon, Indianapolis Colts
- Current Start Percentage: 17 Percent (54th among Running Backs)
- My Current Week 5 Rank: RB30
If Jonathan Taylor is ruled out as expected, Trey Sermon would likely be a start this week in most formats. And not necessarily a sneaky one. You may want to consider grabbing him if he is still available in your league.
Check out all of our Week 5 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
Wide Receivers
Dontavion Wicks, Green Bay Packers
Current Start Percentage: 39 Percent (45th among Wide Receivers)
My Current Week 5 Rank: WR29
I was very surprised to see the percentages this low on Packers wide receiver Dontavion Wicks. Green Bay does not intend to put Christian Watson on Injured Reserve. However, he is extremely doubtful for Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Rams. That should bump Wicks up in the pecking order. When thrust into a larger once following Watson’s injury last week, Wicks stepped up with 78 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 13 targets. Sure, that volume is not going to be there every week. But Green Bay gets a great matchup against the Los Angeles Rams this week. Los Angeles ranks 31st in DVOA and EPA against the pass. This is a great spot for Wicks to build on last week’s performance. It is also a great spot for fantasy managers to grab Wicks and insert him into your starting lineup before it is too late.
Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants
Current Start Percentage: 44 Percent (42nd among Wide Receivers)
My Current Week 5 Rank: WR33
For all of the love that Malik Nabers is getting (and deservedly so), his teammate, Wan’Dale Robinson, continues to fly under the radar. Not only is Robinson the overall WR27 entering Week 5, but he has shown a consistent floor. Robinson has yet to finish outside the top 40 in a single week using Half-PPR scoring. Here is a list of the other NFL receivers to finish inside the top 40 in all four weeks so far this season:
Nico Collins
Malik Nabers
Justin Jefferson
Chris Godwin
End of list.
Robinson has some standalone value regardless of format, but particularly in leagues that reward receptions. He has been targeted 38 times in four games. He is tied with Amon-Ra St. Brown for fourth in the NFL in that category. Robinson should continue to pile up the targets and receptions at a rapid rate. Fantasy managers would be well-served to start Robinson in Week 5, even in a fairly difficult matchup.
Jordan Whittington, Los Angeles Rams
Current Start Percentage: 15 Percent (73rd among Wide Receivers)
My Current Week 5 Rank: WR37
For the past couple of weeks, I have listed Demarcus Robinson as a sneaky start. And he has rewarded my faith by finishing outside the top 60 in each instance. They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. So, adios, Demarcus. But what about another Rams wide receiver? Crazy insane or insane crazy? Someone has to catch passes from Matthew Stafford, right? Well, enter Jordan Whittington, at least for now.
Whittington led the team in receptions (six) and targets (eight) last week. More importantly, he played 97 percent of offensive snaps. Even though he did not score or make any huge gains down the field, he still finished the week as the overall WR39. That is more or less all we are looking for, especially from a player who is only being started in 15 percent of Fantrax leagues. That number should be considerably higher. As I just mentioned, the Rams are facing the Green Bay Packers this week. Green Bay is a bit of a pass funnel. This could lead to Whittington being deployed as he was last week. Considering how widely available he still is, Jordan Whittington is one of my favorite Week 5 sneaky starts.
Other Wide Receivers to Consider
- Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers
- Current Start Percentage: 36 Percent (50th among Wide Receivers)
- My Current Week 5 Rank: WR39
- Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
- Current Start Percentage: 47 Percent (41st among Wide Receivers
- My Current Week 5 Rank: WR41
- Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons
- Current Start Percentage: 48 Percent (40th among Wide Receivers)
- My Current Week 5 Rank: WR42
Tight End
Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers
Current Start Percentage: 36 Percent (18th among Tight Ends)
My Current Week 5 Rank: TE10
Included in the numbers outlined above regarding the struggles of the Los Angeles Rams defensively against the pass is that they rank dead last in the NFL at defending the tight end position. Opposing tight ends have caught 17 of 18 passes for 207 yards and a touchdown against Los Angeles this season. Tucker Kraft caught six of nine targets for 53 yards and a score last week. As I mentioned with Wicks, that level of involvement is not likely to remain consistent. Green Bay fell behind 28-0 last week and was forced to throw the ball nonstop for the entire second half. Still, the tight end position has been a complete mess this year. So why not chase a little upside? Tucker Kraft may have a low floor, but so does virtually every other tight end.
Other Tight Ends to Consider
- Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
- Current Start Percentage: 31 Percent (21st among Tight Ends)
- My Current Week 5 Rank: TE11
Kicker
Chase McLaughlin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current Start Percentage: 23 Percent (19th among Kickers)
My Current Week 5 Rank: K8
Chase McLaughlin has posted double-digit fantasy points in three of four games this year. Tampa Bay takes on the Atlanta Falcons in Week 5. No team has given up more fantasy points to opposing kickers than Atlanta through four games. They have already allowed 12 field goals this year. And eight of those have been from over 40 yards out. McLaughlin has made all of his field goal attempts this year, including three from over 50 yards. Now he gets a great matchup in the confines of Atlanta’s domed stadium. In leagues that reward longer kicks, McLaughlin is a sneaky start that can help you get a leg up (see what I did there?) in your head-to-head Week 5 matchup.
Other Kicker to Consider
- Chris Boswell, Pittsburgh Steelers
- Current Start Percentage: 45 Percent (10th among Kickers)
- My Current Week 5 Rank: K10
Defense/Special Teams
New England Patriots
Current Start Percentage: 21 Percent (21st among D/STs)
My Current Week 5 Rank: D/ST7
This is not a sexy pick by any means. The New England Patriots enter Week 5 18th among D/ST in total fantasy points. However, they did score 11 in Week 1 against Joe Burrow and company. They were the D/ST7 that week, so there is some precedent for positive results.
New England faces the Miami Dolphins this week. Miami’s offense looks to be in shambles without Tua Tagovailoa at the helm. Each of the last two teams to face the Dolphins has gotten at least 10 points out of their defense and special teams.
Other Defense/Special Teams to Consider
- Washington Commanders
- Current Start Percentage: 25 Percent (19th among D/STs)
- My Current Week 5 Rank: D/ST8
Make sure to check out all of our Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!