This college football season has been excellent so far, already providing so many memorable moments. This week brings another slate of must-watch games, as well as many games that fans (such as myself) will be betting on. I have decided to write only about over/under college football bets again this week, as I am hitting these at a high rate(9-3 W/L on o/u bets this season). Anyway, let’s get to it!
CFB Bets to Make This Saturday
Northern Illinois vs UMASS: o 42.5 (-110)
This one really will be a battle of the offenses. Northern Illinois comes into the game at 2-2, averaging 26.8 points per game overall and an impressive 37.0 points per game at home. Led by star running back Antario Brown, who averages 88.8 rushing yards per game, the Huskies have a favorable opportunity against a UMass defense that ranks 77th in rushing defense, allowing 120.8 yards per game. This matchup could allow Brown to find his stride and push Northern Illinois into multiple scoring opportunities, as UMass has shown weakness against the run.
UMass, although sitting at 1-3, has a sneakily good offense. Their quarterback, Taisun Phommachanh, is a true dual threat, and his versatility makes the Minutemen’s offense difficult to contain. Phommachanh has passed for 1,017 yards (203.4 per game) with five touchdown passes while also contributing on the ground with 226 rushing yards (45.2 per game) and a rushing touchdown. The Minutemen’s offense has more potential than they have shown thus far, and this game could serve as a breakout opportunity against a Northern Illinois defense that has had inconsistencies.
Indiana vs Northwestern: o 41.5 (-110)
Indiana’s offense ranks as one of the best in the nation, averaging 520 yards per game (ninth), along with 48.8 points per game (third). Indiana has demonstrated consistent offensive power, scoring 42 or more points in four consecutive games—a notable statistic considering the total set for this matchup is below that.
The big question for this game is whether Northwestern will be able to contribute offensively, as they have struggled early this season, averaging just 17.3 points per game (122nd). However, Northwestern is coming off a bye week, providing them with an extra week to rest and prepare, which could make a difference. With extra time to strategize, they may find ways to move the ball against Indiana’s defense. I expect Indiana to jump out to an early lead, allowing Northwestern to score later in the game when Indiana is likely playing more conservatively. Considering the spread (-13.5) and the o/u, the implied score is Indiana 28, Northwestern 14.
Tennessee vs Arkansas u 59.5 (-110)
Tennessee has EMBARRASSED opponents so far this year, averaging 569.5 yards of offense (third) and 54 points (first) through their first four games of the season, and that is likely why this total is so high. However, when taking a closer look, three of the Volunteers’ first four opponents—Chattanooga, Kent State, and NC State—are not particularly strong. While NC State was the best of the three, they have struggled significantly since Week 2, which casts some doubt about the level of competition they provided.
On the other side, Arkansas’ offense has been far from impressive, remaining mediocre at best. The Razorbacks will likely struggle to produce against Tennessee’s explosive defense, which will severely limit their ability to put points on the board.
Tennessee’s most competitive outing came in Week 4 against Oklahoma, where they won 25-15. Heading into another road SEC matchup, it seems more likely that this game will resemble their low-scoring contest against the Sooners rather than Tennessee’s previous blowouts.