Well, that was fun while it lasted. Every time I think I have things figured out this NFL season, that goes out the window. Again, we don’t want to make excuses, but we have to work within the confines of reality that we have. All we can do is to continue with our process and put in the work. Apologies if that sounds boring, because it is, but overreaction is always going to be the enemy. Now, let’s jump into the games we are targeting for our Week 5 NFL Survivor Picks.
How Did We Do?
In following suit with the first four weeks of the season, Week 5 brought with it mixed results. It shouldn’t be that surprising that our easiest victory of the week came on the tightest spread that we targeted. That is simply how 2024 is going to this point. Watching the Washington Commanders make quick and easy work of the Cleveland Browns really shouldn’t have been that surprising. Jayden Daniels and the Commanders’ offense is truly finding it’s groove, but Deshaun Watson and the Browns really are that bad.
Our other victory of the week came as the Kansas City Chiefs defended their home field against the New Orleans Saints. There were some moments when it was tough to relax, but time and a Derek Carr injury took care of that.
Injuries kept Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary out of action on Sunday, and that only seemed to push that narrative closer to a New York Giants’ loss. An early Seattle touchdown only cemented that thought process until the Giants, Daniel Jones, and Tyrone Tracy found their groove. Ultimately, it was too much for the Seahawks to handle as their home-field advantage was rendered useless. In San Francisco, the 49ers took the Arizona Cardinals down to the wire, but ultimately couldn’t make enough plays and came up short. We knew that the Seahawks weren’t an elite team, but maybe the 49ers are not at that point either. At the same time, we should give the Giants and Cardinals credit as they played better on the road than expected.
We didn’t have a fade last week as all the other games were forecasted to be tight.
Week 6 NFL Survivor Picks
As we embark on another exciting week of football, we have four new teams on bye. This week, there are two less games to review as the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, and Minnesota Vikings get a week off.
Each week, we’ll continue to pick four games to target along with one that we are fading. They will be ranked in order of our preference along with the lines that we hope to see building off each other each week. Let’s jump right into those survivor picks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints – Buccaneers – 3.5
From a point-spread perspective, I would expect to see this margin grow throughout the week. The Saints are coming off a short week as they were just defeated by the Chiefs on Monday. Towards the end of that game, Derek Carr went down with an oblique injury and he is not slated to play on Sunday. That means Spencer Rattler will be under center, which puts New Orleans at a disadvantage.
Aside from a lackluster effort against Denver, this has been a strong start to the season for Tampa Bay. They did suffer their second loss of the season in Week 5 to Atlanta, but it was a valiant effort. The Falcons needed an overtime touchdown in what was an offensive shootout. We shouldn’t have to worry about Haener, or Carr, throwing for 509 yards like Kirk Cousins did so that’s a plus.
Baker Mayfield is up to 1,164 passing yards and 11 touchdowns on the season. This week, he faces a Saints defense that is ranked 26th in passing defense with 251 yards allowed per game. The Buccaneers are in a position to exploit that.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots – Texans -7
The Patriots are coming off a tough road loss in Miami, but that really shouldn’t be surprising. Aside from ruining survivor pools with a Week 1 upset in Cincinnati, the Patriots are winless on the season. Their offense has struggled to move the ball ranking 31st overall with just 275 yards and 12.4 points per game. They are turning to Drake Maye under center, and it will take some time for the rookie to find his groove. Considering that the Texans are allowing just 154 passing yards per game, it’s far from an ideal situation for Maye.
New England’s defense isn’t much better and that bodes well for CJ Stroud and his stable of receiving weapons. You never know what will happen with a rookie quarterback, and road games are tough, but Houston is the better team here.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers – Falcons – 6.5
After switching to Andy Dalton, the Panthers have looked better. However, they were obliterated 36-10 by the Bears. Not only does Carolina rank 29th in the league with just 16.6 points per game, but their defense is the worst in the league. The Panthers are allowing 33 points per game and things aren’t going to get any easier this week.
Kirk Cousins has seemingly found his groove with Atlanta, and after playing on Thursday, they had a few extra off days built in. The Falcons do need to do a better job of working Bijan Robinson into the mix, but that shouldn’t be an issue this week. Generally taking road teams in divisional matchups is less than ideal, but Atlanta is just starting to get comfortable.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Cleveland Browns – Eagles – 9.5
While there haven’t been rumors yet, it should only be a matter of time for Deshaun Watson under center. He has not looked good this season, and by default, neither has the Cleveland offense. Through five games this season, Watson isn’t even averaging 200 passing yards per game (852) with just five touchdowns. It shouldn’t come as a surprise then that the Browns have just one victory. They are last in the league with just 270 yards per game while scoring the third-fewest points (15.8).
That is a welcome development for the Eagles whose defense has struggled to begin the season. Following their bye week, Philadelphia is in a great spot to get back on track. It has been an uneven start for the Eagles who have been able to move the ball but haven’t consistently found the end zone. There is no question who the more talented team is, and home-field advantage also works in the Eagles’ favor.
Check out all of our Week 6 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
Week 6 NFL Survivor Fade
Baltimore Ravens vs. Washington Commanders – Ravens -6.5
The Commanders brought Jayden Daniels along slowly, and his performance has picked up steam over the past few weeks. A strong running game led by Brian Robinson, but supported by Austin Ekeler, has also played a role here. Washington is currently in the midst of a four-game winning streak while leading the league with 31 points per game.
From the Baltimore perspective, it has been an uneven start to the season. On offense, they lead the league with 453 yards per game while scoring the second most points (29,4). It’s shaping up to be an explosive game, and when that happens, the game can go in multiple directions. Baltimore’s defense hasn’t done them any favors as they also allow 25.2 points per game. The Ravens barely escaped Cincinnati with a victory last week and it’s hard to trust them this week.
Line 1
Houston/Kansas City/Philadelphia
Line 2
Washington/Atlanta
Line 3
Houston
Line 4
Tampa Bay
Make sure to check out all of our Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!