I suffered my first losing week of the 2024 season last week. My top three player props produced a 1-2 record. I should have known I was in for a rough week when the lines moved in my favor. All kidding aside, it has still been a successful start to the season. I am now 9-5 on the year. But now is the time to put the past aside and move forward. Below are three of my favorite Week 6 NFL player props. Make sure to shop for the best prices available and always bet within your means.
NFL Week 6 Player Props
Derrick Henry Longest Rush OVER 16.5 Yards (-121, BetRivers)
The matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Washington Commanders should be one of the more entertaining contests on this week’s slate. These teams enter Week 6 as the top two scoring teams in the NFL. Their respective defenses also leave plenty to be desired. There are a lot of ways you can attack this game via player props, but I am going with Derrick Henry to have a long rush of over 16.5 yards. Baltimore’s offensive line has done an outstanding job of opening up holes for Henry. They have generated an average of 1.94 yards per carry before contact. That is the highest number in the NFL. As a result, Henry has gone over this number in four straight games. In each of those outings, his longest rush has been at least 29 yards.
This should play well against a Commanders defense that has had problems stopping the run. They are allowing a league-high 5.28 yards per carry to opposing running backs this season. Washington is allowing 1.57 yards per carry before contact. That is the second-highest number in the NFL. The Commanders have only allowed four running backs to have a long rush over 16.5 yards against them thus far. But I believe that number is a bit misleading. Washington has also allowed five other backs to have a long rush of either 15 or 16 yards. Considering that Henry has carried the ball at least 15 times in four straight games, he should be able to produce at least one run longer than 16.5 yards in this matchup.
Check out all of our Week 6 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
Chase McLaughlin OVER 1.5 Made Field Goals (-145, ESPNBet)
Kicker props FTW! There are a few reasons why this is one of my favorite Week 6 NFL player props. Let’s start with the production Chase McLaughlin has provided. McLaughlin is currently one of the most trustworthy kickers in the NFL. Since joining the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year, McLaughlin has gone over this number in 16 of 22 regular-season games played. He has made 39 of 41 field goals, including 12 of 13 from over 50 yards out. McLaughlin has also cleared this number in all seven games that Tampa has played indoors since the beginning of last season.
His Week 6 opponent should provide ample opportunities for field goals as well. The New Orleans Saints have the stingiest red zone defense in the NFL through five weeks. Their defense has allowed a red-zone touchdown on just 25 percent of trips this year. Overall, the Saints have allowed 13 field goals on defense compared to just six touchdowns. Tampa Bay’s offense ranks in the middle of the pack in red zone offense. I expect them to be able to move the ball but ultimately kick field goals to put points up on the board against this defense.
The injury to New Orleans‘ starting quarterback Derek Carr should also help us concerning this player prop. Whether it is Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler under center for New Orleans on Sunday, the Saints figure to struggle to generate much offense. Because of that, the Buccaneers should have the luxury of being able to settle for field goals as opposed to trying to convert on fourth down to keep up with the Saints on the scoreboard. This feels like a great spot for McLaughlin to kick at least two field goals.
David Montgomery 5+ Receiving Yards (-150, ESPNBet)
Trivia time! Which running back leads the Detroit Lions in receiving yards as we enter Week 6? If you guessed Jahmyr Gibbs, you would be wrong. The answer is David Montgomery. Montgomery has hauled in all nine of his targets this season for a total of 94 receiving yards. Gibbs has just 76 receiving yards on the season. In fact, he has not even drawn a target since Week 2. Now, do I expect that to hold for the remainder of the season? No, I do not. But my point is that the perception that Montgomery is just an inside rusher or that Gibbs is just a pass-catching threat has been disproven over the first quarter or so of Detroit’s season. Both backs have been more or less interchangeable. This is why I am targeting Montgomery’s receiving props this week against the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas has been a sieve in pass coverage when it comes to opposing running backs. Even if you remove Alvin Kamara’s 57-yard touchdown catch in Week 2, the Cowboys have allowed over eight yards per target and 10 yards per reception to running backs this season. The following is a list of running backs that Dallas has faced this year, alongside the number of receiving yards each back has accumulated:
Week 1: Jerome Ford 25, Pierre Strong Jr. 20 (season-high)
Week 2: Kamara 65 (season-high)
Week 3: Derrick Henry 23 (season-high; one target), Justice Hill 21 (two targets)
Week 4: Tyrone Tracy Jr. 19 (season-high; one target), Devin Singletary 14 (one target)
Week 5: Najee Harris 35 (two targets)
David Montgomery has had at least 17 receiving yards in three straight games. Given that production and Dallas’ deficiencies on the defensive end, betting on him to amass just five receiving yards feels like a very small ask. If you want some more bang for your buck, you can play Montgomery to have over 8.5 receiving yards on Bet365 at -110. You can also play some alternative lines for Montgomery’s receiving yardage. Some books have not put out receiving props for Montgomery yet, but here are the best I have seen as of this writing:
15+ Receiving Yards: +175 at ESPNBet
20+ Receiving Yards: +250 at ESPNBet
25+ Receiving Yards: +350 at DraftKings Sportsbook
30+ Receiving Yards: +480 at Caesars Sportsbook
40+ Receiving Yards: +1000 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Make sure to check out all of our Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!