It was another 1-2 week for me last week in this column. I picked a kicker to kick two field goals, and the team scored seven touchdowns instead. It almost would have been funny if it hadn’t cost me money. But that is how the cookie crumbles, which is why I always stress to play within your means. That is Rule Number One whether you play DFS, player props, or meet Joey Numbers at the diner for “coffee”. Below are my top three NFL player props for Week 7. As always, shop for the best price available to you. I am writing these up on Thursday night. Plenty can change between now and Sunday morning, including pricing. Now let’s stack some wins together and beat the books!
NFL Week 7 Player Props
Gabe Davis UNDER 2.5 Receptions (+115, ESPNBet)
An under and a plus-money bet? I’m coming in hot! And there is a method to my madness. Towards the end of last season, I noticed a trend with Gabe Davis. He almost always underperformed when he faced a team that relied heavily on man coverage. I discovered this right before Buffalo played Dallas last year. Sure enough, Davis had zero catches on one target versus the Cowboys. Fantasy football managers in particular were not happy. Many of them swore off Davis the next week against the Los Angeles Chargers. I warned against it, knowing that the Chargers were a heavy zone team. Davis went off for 130 yards and a touchdown against Los Angeles.
The biggest question is whether these trends have changed this season now that Davis is in Jacksonville. And the answer is, “Not really”. Jacksonville has not yet played a team that utilizes man coverage at a top-five rate. The closest they came was in Week 2 when they faced the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland had the sixth-highest man coverage percentage entering that game. Davis had three catches against Cleveland. But overall, Davis’s woes versus man coverage have continued in 2024. Davis has just two catches on 43 routes run against man coverage this year. By contrast, Davis has 15 receptions on 135 routes run versus zone coverage. This is relevant because the New England Patriots play man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.
Davis ranks fourth on the Jaguars in targets per game behind Brian Thomas Jr., Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram. Jacksonville is not a very pass-heavy offense. Trevor Lawrence is averaging just 32 pass attempts per game despite the Jaguars sitting at 1-5. And he ranks 25th in CPOE (completion rate over expected) out of 40 quarterbacks this season. I believe these metrics are relevant because Jacksonville is a prohibitive favorite against the Patriots on Sunday. If the Jaguars can take care of business early, they will not be throwing the ball very often in the second half. Six of Davis’s eight targets last week came in the second half while Jacksonville was trailing by at least 18 points. All of these factors have me fading Gabe Davis in this matchup.
Jaylen Waddle OVER 3.5 Receptions (-135, DraftKings)
A few sportsbooks (most notably FanDuel) have not yet posted player props for the game between the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts. I am assuming they are waiting for confirmation on the status of Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson. Luckily for us, his status does not affect this Week 7 NFL player prop, at least not directly. I am picking Jaylen Waddle to go over his reception number, which is currently set at 3.5.
Waddle has gone over this number in every game this year. That is a bit misleading because he has exactly four receptions in four straight games. But Waddle has been heavily involved in two games with Tyler Huntley under center for Miami. Waddle has been targeted 14 times on 53 pass attempts. That is a 26.4 percent target share. If you were to extrapolate that over the full year, Waddle would be tied for 11th among wide receivers in target share. And most of the top 10 are players that the books are projecting for at least five catches this week. So I think we are getting some value on this player prop from that perspective.
Waddle’s Week 7 matchup should also lend itself to a relatively high number of receptions. The Indianapolis Colts play zone coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Waddle has led the Dolphins in zone coverage targets over the past two weeks. Miami had a bye last week, which hopefully helped Huntley get better acclimated with his top weapons. I expect the Dolphins to get Waddle and Tyreek Hill more involved in this game. For the record, I do not mind playing Hill’s reception prop either (it currently sits at 4.5). However, I do think there is more value with Waddle this week.
Check out all of our Week 7 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
Brock Bowers OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards (-114, BetRivers)
This is another game for which some books have not put out player props yet. You may find better pricing on this player prop elsewhere closer to kickoff. For the record, I would prefer to take Brock Bowers to record at least six receptions if and when that becomes available, depending on the price. I am assuming that line will be 5.5 based on his receiving yardage total being 58.5. Either way, count me in on Bowers this week for multiple reasons. So I am fine playing his yardage total for now.
First and foremost, he is probably already the top receiving threat in Las Vegas now that they have shipped Davante Adams out of town. This is especially true if Jakobi Meyers misses another game due to his ankle injury. Meyers has yet to practice this week. With Meyers and Adams out last week, Bowers had nine catches on 10 targets for 71 yards. Even with Meyers playing in Week 5, Bowers soaked up 12 targets, catching eight of them for 97 yards. Regardless of whether Meyers plays, there is no reason for Vegas to go away from Bowers in what is the best matchup in the NFL for tight ends.
To say that the Los Angeles Rams rank dead last in DVOA versus opposing tight ends might be giving them too much credit. They have been dreadful at containing opposing tight ends this season. The Rams have allowed tight ends to catch 21 of 23 targets thus far. That 91.3 percent catch rate is the highest in the NFL. They also allow 12.83 yards per target to opposing tight ends. No other NFL team allows a mark higher than 9.77 yards per target. As is usually the case with the Raiders, they are one of the biggest underdogs on the Week 7 board. A negative game script would only help Bowers surpass all of his receiving props. All of this should add up to a big game for the rookie tight end on Sunday.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 7 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!