The point of this Sneaky Starts column is to find players that should exceed expectations. These are players who are being started in less than 50 percent of Fantrax leagues. At the risk of being a homer, managers in Fantrax leagues are savvier than on some other platforms. It’s just science. Speaking of science, I base my suggestions on 12-team leagues. That means I think these players have an excellent chance of finishing inside the top 12/24/36 at their given position based on default league settings. I bring all this up to posit the following scenario.
Last week, 14 quarterbacks were started in at least half of leagues. Those players were automatically out of consideration to be sneaky starts. And truth be told, my top 12 quarterbacks were all included in that group of 14. Therefore, I went with Sam Darnold, who was my QB13. Well, it just so happens that Darnold finished exactly at QB13 last week. Boom! Having said that, he wasn’t technically inside the top 12, even though he did exceed expectations. So, do I count that as a hit or a miss? It is a somewhat rhetorical question, but it speaks to the subjective nature of prognosticating in general. You can often be “right” and “wrong” about the same player at the same time. Extrapolate that times hundreds of players per week and it can feel like being in the proverbial hamster wheel.
Whether you want to credit me with a hit or miss on Darnold, last week’s column was mostly positive. I only hit on one of my three wide receivers. But I hit on both running backs and had a top-five player at tight end, kicker, and defense/special teams. Let’s see if we can keep riding that wave in Week 8. There are no teams on a bye this week. That means that hopefully, you do not have to rely on too many sneaky starts this week. But just in case, here you go.
Week 8 Sneaky Starts for Fantasy Football
Quarterback
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Current Start Percentage: 47 Percent (16th among Quarterbacks)
My Current Week 8 Rank: QB9
I am running it back with Sam Darnold in Week 8. At least there will be no ambiguity here. If he finishes where I have him ranked, it will be a hit. Either way, I am a bit surprised that fantasy managers are not showing Darnold more love. Then again, I sold his old jersey for like $12 on eBay a couple of months ago, so I guess I shouldn’t talk. But for fantasy football purposes, Darnold has exceeded expectations. He has finished as QB13 or better in five of Minnesota’s six games. I like his chances of doing so again in Week 8. The Vikings will face the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night. Los Angeles ranks 27th in EPA and 28th in DVOA defensively overall. I expect the Rams to struggle defensively on a short week against a Vikings offense averaging 28 points per game.
Other Quarterbacks to Consider
- Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
- Current Start Percentage: 45 Percent (18th among quarterbacks)
- My Current Week 8 Rank: QB10
Caleb Williams has finished each of his last two games as a top-six fantasy quarterback. I do not think he will quite get to that level in Week 8, but he should be a more reliable performer than at least a few of the quarterbacks who are currently ahead of him in terms of starting percentage.
Running Backs
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current Start Percentage: 42 Percent (35th among Running Backs)
My Current Week 8 Rank: RB27
There are 30 running backs currently started in over half of Fantrax leagues. That seems to indicate that very little is falling through the cracks. But if that is the case, how is Bucky Irving not included in those 30? I would not even consider Irving a sneaky start this week so much as a “probably should start”. That is a lot less catchy, though. Irving missed practice on Wednesday, so perhaps that explains the current percentages. Still, I think we should give him the benefit of the doubt, at least for now. Tampa Bay played on Monday, so some wear and tear early in the week is to be expected. Meanwhile, Irving has finished as a top-24 fantasy running back in four of the past five weeks. As long as he is available on Sunday, I expect that trend to continue in Week 8.
The Bucs host the Atlanta Falcons this week. Atlanta is a below-average run defense based on advanced metrics. They are a bit worse against the pass but may get a reprieve in that respect when facing Tampa Bay. Both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans will be out for this matchup. The Buccaneers are going to have to run the ball more than usual in this game. And when they do, it is much more likely to be with Irving (67 carries, 5.2 yards per carry, 18 missed tackles forced) than it is with Rachaad White (61 carries, 3.7 yards per carry, 11 missed tackles forced). White is currently being started in 56 percent of leagues. I think those percentages should be flip-flopped, and would feel fine starting Bucky Irving as a Flex option at the very least provided he can suit up on Sunday.
Alexander Mattison, Las Vegas Raiders
Current Start Percentage: 48 Percent (33rd among Running Backs)
My Current Week 8 Rank: RB31
If I am being honest, I am much less enthused about picking Alexander Mattison here than I am about Irving. Mattison has a brutal Week 8 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City has allowed the fewest fantasy points and scrimmage yards per game to opposing running backs so far this year. And though the Chiefs offense has not been as explosive as in years past, they defeat the Las Vegas Raiders fairly easily, which could limit Mattison’s workload. Having said that, there is little doubt that Mattison is the lead back for the Raiders. Zamir White returned but earned just four touches last week, while Mattison had 26. He has five top-30 weekly finishes in seven games this season. It may not be pretty, but Alexander Mattison is a reasonable Flex play this week.
Other Running Backs to Consider
- Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys
- Current Start Percentage: 28 Percent (41st among Running Backs)
- My Current Week 8 Rank: RB32
- Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
- Current Start Percentage: 48 Percent (32nd among Running Backs)
- My Current Week 8 Rank: RB33
Wide Receivers
Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers
Current Start Percentage: 20 Percent (62nd among Wide Receivers)
My Current Week 8 Rank: WR31
Jauan Jennings missed last week’s Super Bowl rematch and has yet to practice this week. With San Francisco having a bye next week, the team may decide that discretion is the better part of valor and give Jennings an extended rest. But considering that Brandon Aiyuk is out for the year and Deebo Samuel’s status for this week is very much in doubt, Jennings should at least be on your radar this week. Much has been made of Dallas’ poor run defense this season. But they are also a bottom-five pass defense based on both EPA and DVOA. If the team clears him between now and Sunday, I would consider Jennings a WR3 this week.
Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers
Current Start Percentage: 48 Percent (38th among Wide Receivers)
My Current Week 8 Rank: WR32
It can be difficult to have much faith in any entity attached to the passing offense of the Los Angeles Chargers. They average less than 200 passing yards per game and quarterback Justin Herbert has thrown just six touchdowns all season long. But rookie Ladd McConkey has earned a total of 22 targets over his last three games. No other Chargers wide receiver has more than 12 targets in that span. That type of volume should make McConkey a viable fantasy option in Week 8. Such was the case last week when he finished as the overall WR36 despite not scoring a touchdown. If he were to score this week, he would most likely vault into WR2 territory in 12-team leagues.
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
Current Start Percentage: 33 Percent (50th among Wide Receivers)
My Current Week 8 Rank: WR34
When Buffalo dealt for Amari Cooper last week, many felt it could be a bad sign for both Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman from a fantasy standpoint. So naturally, all three Bills wideouts finished inside the top 24. Shakir paced the team with seven receptions and remains one of the most efficient receivers in all of fantasy football. Josh Allen has targeted Shakir on 28 passes this season and Shakir has 27 receptions. This is nothing new if you watched Buffalo last year. Including the playoffs, Allen and Shakir connected on 49 of 57 targets. Sure, it would be nice if Allen would target Shakir a bit more often given their connection. But Shakir has four top-36 weekly finishes in six games, and I think that is a reasonable threshold for Shakir to hit again in Week 8, making him a sneaky start based on his current percentage.
Other Wide Receivers to Consider
- Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
- Current Start Percentage: 42 Percent (41st among Wide Receivers)
- My Current Week 8 Rank: WR29
- Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears
- Current Start Percentage: 48 Percent (39th among Wide Receivers
- My Current Week 8 Rank: WR41
- Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans
- Current Start Percentage: 40 Percent (42nd among Wide Receivers)
- My Current Week 8 Rank: WR43
I left Chris Olave off the section above because I think if he clears concussion protocol, he will vault well over the 50 percent mark. But I wanted to at least include him here in case there was doubt whether I would start him this week. I would, despite the issues the Saints are dealing with offensively. I may bump Calvin Ridley up a few spots between now and Sunday. It feels gross, mostly because Ridley has 56 total yards in his last four games while securing five of 23 targets. But he should get all the targets he can physically handle this week. Tennessee traded DeAndre Hopkins, leaving Ridley as the team’s only legitimate perimeter threat. The Titans are facing Detroit this week, which means there should be plenty of volume based on expected negative gamescript.
Check out all of our Week 8 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
Tight End
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current Start Percentage: 39 Percent (18th among Tight Ends)
My Current Week 8 Rank: TE11
This sneaky start is not quite as gross to me as the Alexander Mattison selection, but there are parallels. Cade Otton has now finished inside the top 14 fantasy tight ends in four of the past five weeks. Otton is getting a ton of volume, totaling 37 targets in those five games. For reference, Sam LaPorta has been targeted 17 times this season. While Otton’s involvement may not seem sustainable under normal circumstances, that is no longer a viable argument. Tampa Bay lost both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in their last game. Godwin is out for the year, while Evans is likely out for a month or longer. Otton should continue to be peppered with targets from Baker Mayfield in the coming weeks. That makes him a sneaky start considering there are currently 17 more popular tight ends.
Other Tight Ends to Consider
- Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
- Current Start Percentage: 43 Percent (14th among Tight Ends)
- My Current Week 8 Rank: TE13
Kicker
Brandon McManus, Green Bay Packers
Current Start Percentage: 21 Percent (18th among Kickers)
My Current Week 8 Rank: K8
The Green Bay Packers replaced struggling kicker Brayden Narveson with veteran Brandon McManus before last week’s game. McManus rewarded them by nailing a game-winning 45-yard field goal. He finished outside the top 12 (K14 to be exact), but I think there is optimism regarding McManus this week. Narveson had double-digit fantasy points in four of six games this year despite missing five field goals. McManus only had one field goal opportunity last week, but I expect more volume in Week 8 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville has allowed the third-most points per game in the NFL this season. And Green Bay has scored at least 24 points in all five of Jordan Love’s starts. Even if the Packers generate more touchdowns than field goals on Sunday, Brandon McManus can post top-12 results in this matchup.
Other Kicker to Consider
- Cameron Dicker, Los Angeles Chargers
- Current Start Percentage: 38 Percent (15th among Kickers)
- My Current Week 8 Rank: K10
Defense/Special Teams
Los Angeles Chargers
Current Start Percentage: 48 Percent (11th among D/STs)
My Current Week 8 Rank: D/ST7
This is a rare case where there are fewer players at a position (in this case, a unit) being started in 50 percent of Fantrax leagues than are required at that position. That makes sense because many fantasy managers wisely stream defense and special teams units each week. Either way, I am not looking a gift horse in the mouth. I am picking the Los Angeles Chargers as my Week 8 sneaky start at D/ST. This is another instance where I do not even consider this sneaky. It makes sense given that the New Orleans Saints are going to let Spencer Rattler lead their offensive attack once again this week in the absence of Derek Carr. Rattler has five turnover-worthy plays on just 92 dropbacks this year. Opposing D/ST have scored 37 total fantasy points in Rattler’s two starts. Fire up the Chargers this week.
Other Defense/Special Teams to Consider
- Green Bay Packers
- Current Start Percentage: 40 Percent (14th among D/STs)
- My Current Week 8 Rank: D/ST9
Make sure to check out all of our Week 8 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!