Welcome back! This week we will examine three NHL stars off to a slow start on the season. Okay, a slow start is putting things mildly. These guys might want to lay on the ice to thaw out.
No one expected Steven Stamkos, C, Nashville Predators, Zach Hyman, LW, Edmonton Oilers, and Elias Pettersson to have just one goal and three assists through 19 combined games. Yet, here we are.
Let’s take a look.
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NHL Stars Off to Slow Starts
Steven Stamkos, C, Nashville Predators
When the Predators signed Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault, LW/RW in free agency few expected the team to start the season 1-5. Fewer still expected Stamkos to register a lone power-play goal in his first six games. This is a player who, through 1088 career games averages 85.7 points a season.
Earlier this week I mentioned potential off-ice factors that could affect Stamkos’ on-ice performance. After 15 seasons with the Tampa Bay Lighting, Stamkos finds himself on a new team, in a new city, surrounded by new players. With a young family, there are a lot of moving parts. It takes time to get settled as a family. Some players roll in and don’t miss a beat, for others, it takes time.
Stamkos has been too good for too long to dry up and blow away overnight. This isn’t an age-decline-related issue. It is a basic slump. The Predators rely on Stamkos as much as the Lightning, possibly more. His 19:28 ice time is the most per game since 2015-16.
To be blunt Stamkos has been snake-bitten. His 3.7 shots per game is the highest per-game mark of his career. On 22 shots, he should have 3 to 4 goals. His IPP (Individual Point Percentage) is a measly 20%. Only once in his career has this dipped below 65%. This tells us Stamkos is less involved in the play when the Predators score. Normally, Stamkos drives the play.
Don’t be surprised to see Andrew Brunette (Head Coach) unite Stamkos with Ryan O’Reilly, C, and Filip Forsberg, RW. Playing stars with stars is a great way to bust a slump. His shots are coming from his normal spots. He’s generating chances at a similar rate to his career average.
Stamkos is one of many NHL stars off to a slow start. He will get his. It is only a matter of time.
Zach Hyman, LW, Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers started last season in a horrendous slump with a 2-5-1 record in October. The sky was falling. Fans and media alike were calling for someone’s head, anyone’s. We all know how the season ended, game seven of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Sure, it wasn’t the result they wanted but it shows the season was not defined by the bad start.
Here we are seven games in and Hyman is throwing donuts around like there is a Crispy Creme fundraiser. I doubt many expected Hyman to lead the Oilers in scoring for a second-year straight year. His 54 goals surprised everyone, including himself.
His 18.6 shooting percentage was a full 5% above his career average. The point totals were not a surprise. His 77 points were less than in 2022-23 when he produced a career-high, 83.
Hyman is spending 87% of his even-strength ice time with McDavid. Almost half of that ice time includes Leon Draisaitl on the other wing.
Kris Knoblauch is doing everything he can to jumpstart the Oilers offense. This includes the number one power play unit playing over 80% of all power play minutes. That’s up 7% from last year. Hyman is also seeing an 11% increase in offensive zone starts, up to 72.9%. This kind of usage is often saved for rookies receiving sheltered minutes, not a team’s top line.
Tied to McDavid’s hip, Hyman is destined to produce. Like Stamkos, Hyman will get his points. If he returns to his career shooting percentage, Hyman will give 40 goals a run. A safe expectation is 30 to 35 goals and 40 assists. You shouldn’t have expected more than this to begin with. Like Stamkos, he’s another NHL star off to a slow start that you shouldn’t worry about.
Elias Pettersson, C, Vancouver Canucks
Then there is Pettersson. He has by far, the weakest linemates of the three. Conor Garland and Nils Hoglander do not scream top-six forwards. Either/or is fine on a second line, but not both. It is the same story as last year, Pettersson needs a top-six winger.
I swore up and down that Pettersson was hiding an injury in the playoffs when he disappeared against the Oilers. It turns out, that wasn’t true. I’ve never been bitten by a spider, so my spidey sense isn’t that well-honed. The Oilers simply neutralized him.
Here we are, a new season; same Pettersson issues.
One stat that jumps out – 34.6% offensive zone starts. Compared to 53.4% in 2023-24. That 19% decrease in the offensive zone is something to keep an eye on.
Pettersson has also seen an early double-digit reduction in power play ice time, down 13% from last year, at 59.8%.
It is too early to call this a worrisome trend. Regardless, I’m not a fan of 60% defensive zone starts. I’m also not a fan of his five-on-five linemates. If Rick Tocchet won’t give him Brock Boeser, RW, then at least give him more time Jake DeBrusk.
This is one NHL star off to a slow start and may not fully recover. I’m not saying Pettersson will drop to the bottom of the tank, but I wouldn’t hold my breath if he gets to 90 points. A Hyman-esque season feels more likely.
That’s all for this week. Thanks for reading.
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