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NASCAR DFS: Xfinity 500 Picks

It is the penultimate race for the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season. Martinsville Speedway is the site for the final race before Phoenix. What can we expect? Well, despite the fact this is a simple short track, it leads to plenty of drama. Friday night’s Truck Series race certainly didn’t disappoint. You have to imagine Taylor Gray will have no issue ruining Christian Eckes’ championship hopes next Friday. Even early on in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race, Cole Custer and A.J. Allmendinger got into it as Custer worked his way to the front. Fortunately, Allmendinger has already qualified for next week’s Xfinity Series championship. But we’re here to preview Sunday’s race. Let’s examine the top NASCAR DFS Xfinity 500 picks for tomorrow’s action!

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Xfinity 500 Picks: The Top 10

  1. Martin Truex Jr. (#19 Joe Gibbs Racing)
  2. Chase Elliott (#9 Hendrick Motorsports)
  3. William Byron (#24 Hendrick Motorsports)
  4. Chase Briscoe (#14 Stewart-Haas Racing)
  5. Ty Gibbs (#54 Joe Gibbs Racing)
  6. Harrison Burton (#21 Wood Brothers Racing)
  7. Alex Bowman (#48 Hendrick Motorsports)
  8. Ryan Preece (#41 Stewart-Haas Racing)
  9. Kyle Larson (#5 Hendrick Motorsports)
  10. Austin Dillon (#3 Richard Childress Racing)

We have a nice blend of expensive and value options for the Xfinity 500 picks. We see some familiar names from this week’s Xfinity 500 preview. But also, there are some names I wasn’t expecting. Harrison Burton and Austin Dillon might be difficult plays just because of their starting spots. However, Martinsville is unique. We like PD, but we don’t need to force it as much as we do at other tracks. This short track tends to see drivers at the rear being lapped early and often. So while it is likely they go backward, they have the luxury of not being lapped early unless they have an issue. Truex, Elliott, Byron, and Larson are the three from this group that project to lead the most laps. However, there are some drivers outside the top 10 that are in contention as well.

Which Value-Priced Xfinity 500 Picks Got A Points Movement Bump?

  • Austin Cindric – Starting P24
  • Noah Gragson – Starting P25
  • Chris Buescher – Starting P26
  • Carson Hocevar – Starting P27
  • Shane Van Gisbergen – Starting P29
  • Zane Smith – Starting P36

Among the value options for our Xfinity 500 picks, these are the six I’m likely to land on the most. And remember, as we just said in the last section, don’t be afraid to roster value plays starting in the top 20. These six drivers are at higher risk of getting lapped early on unless we have an abundance of cautions. I chose these six drivers mostly for one reason: I buy into their equipment more than other teams in this tier. And to a lesser extent, I trust them more on this track. My big concern with SVG is the overall lack of experience in the NextGen car. However, some believe that road course specialists can do well at Martinsville because of the heavy brake work and the tight corners.

Which Higher-Priced Drivers Got A Similar Bump?

  • Denny Hamlin – Starting P37
  • Tyler Reddick – Starting P31
  • Ross Chastain – Starting P22
  • Kyle Busch – Starting P23
  • Bubba Wallace – Starting P19
  • Brad Keselowski – Starting P18
  • Christopher Bell – Starting P16

Denny Hamlin will likely be the most-rostered driver among the higher-priced Xfinity 500 picks. He’s 18 points below the cut line for Phoenix. He can point his way in, but he has some work to do after he wrecked his car during practice/qualifying. The team did choose to make repairs to the car rather than go to a backup. But Hamlin needs a good run, and arguably a win. I don’t think he has much win equity, however. Tyler Reddick starts deep in the field, but he’s already qualified for Phoenix. This race means little to him. Christopher Bell might be the best play in this range. He has success on comparable tracks and offers both win equity and position differential. Plenty of touts are picking him to win and they won’t hear much of an argument from me.

Xfinity 500 Picks

DraftKings

  • Chase Elliott – $10,500; Starting P2
  • Christopher Bell – $10,300; Starting P16
  • Bubba Wallace – $7,800; Starting P19
  • Chris Buescher – $7,500; Starting P26
  • Ryan Preece – $6,900; Starting P8
  • Carson Hocevar – $6,700; Starting P27

This lineup basically follows the formula I’m looking for on DraftKings. We plug in two value plays starting outside the top 25. But I do feel like Buescher and Hocevar are good enough to move up into the top 15 and avoid losing the lead lap. Additionally, we noted in this week’s Xfinity 500 preview article that Bubba Wallace has quietly gotten better at short, flat tracks. And Ryan Preece is certainly more comfortable on these tracks as well, but he is risky from P8. But he’ll be very low owned, and I just want him to do enough to justify spending up for Chase Elliott and Christopher Bell. Elliott is desperate for a win. So I do expect him to run up front for much of this race. Ultimately, I do expect Bell to get to the front and lead laps while contending for the win.

FanDuel

  • Denny Hamlin – $14,000; Starting P37
  • Chase Elliott – $12,500; Starting P2
  • Christopher Bell – $11,500; Starting P16
  • Ross Chastain – $7,500; Starting P22
  • Zane Smith – $3,500; Starting P36

We take a very similar approach to the DraftKings lineup but with some key differences. Because pricing is more spread out on FanDuel, we can still squeeze in all the win equity with Elliott and Bell while still playing Denny Hamlin. Hamlin is a much better play on FanDuel because dominator points don’t matter as much over there. And while we couldn’t quite squeeze in Carson Hocevar, we’re able to get Zane Smith. Even if Smith loses the lead lap, it’s a long enough race where he can score well if he just keeps running laps and progressively moves up. This build leaves $1,000 on the table if you want to make pivots.

White Flag Thoughts Before You Go

As we close out the Xfinity 500 picks, we should mention the scoring different between both DraftKings and FanDuel. Position differential weighs heavily. You gain or lose a full point on DraftKings based on each spot you gain or lose from where you started. On FanDuel, it’s only a half-point. But DraftKings rewards 0.25 points per lap led and 0.45 points per fastest lap. DraftKings will have at most 350 dominators points. We know that simply won’t be the case since DK doesn’t give out fastest laps during cautions. FanDuel, on the other hand, rewards 0.1 points per lap led. And they give out 0.1 points per lap completed. So you’re penalized heavily if you have a driver wreck and they aren’t running laps. Best of luck for the second-to-last race of the year!

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