If you have read any of my player props columns over the years, you know that I preach the value of price shopping. This should be the case regardless of sport. Shopping for the best number at the best price can often feel like an exercise in futility. But when you can find edges in the market, it feels great. There are two instances this week where I was able to obtain at least five free yards on player props. Finding free yardage on a player prop does not guarantee victory of course. But hopefully, these edges will help lead us to another winning week. I am 19-10 on the year after going 2-1 last week. Let’s see if we can build on those numbers. Here are three of my favorite NFL player props for Week 11.
NFL Week 11 Player Props
Jonathan Taylor OVER 80.5 Rushing Yards (-115, Fanatics)
My first Week 11 NFL player prop is backing Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts. I am taking Taylor to exceed his total rushing yards number. This number is as high as 89.5 on ESPNBet. That gives us nine yards of relative value. If you do not have access to Fanatics Sportsbook, FanDuel has Taylor’s rushing line at 81.5. I would be fine playing it there as well. Taylor has at least 88 rushing yards in five of his last six games. And that production has mostly come in difficult matchups. Taylor’s last four games have come against Buffalo, Minnesota, Houston, and Pittsburgh. All four of those teams rank in the top 10 in defensive DVOA versus the run. The New York Jets… do not. New York ranks 27th in the league in DVOA against the run. And as a fan of the team myself, that feels kind.
The Jets have allowed opposing running backs to amass at least 127 rushing yards in four of their last five games. Since returning to the lineup three weeks ago, Taylor has 54 total carries. All other Colts running backs have combined for two. Even if the newly re-inserted Anthony Richardson siphons a few carries, Taylor should get plenty of work in this game. Taylor’s rushing attempts prop is set at 18.5 at most sportsbooks. Taylor has gone over this week’s rushing yardage total in 22 of 25 career games in which he has carried the ball at least 19 times. As a side note, I do not mind playing the over on Taylor’s rushing attempts prop either. With Richardson back under center, Indianapolis would be wise to attack New York on the ground. Give me Jonathan Taylor to record more than 80 rushing yards in this matchup.
George Pickens OVER 65.5 Receiving Yards (-110, Bet365)
Bet365 has George Pickens’ receiving total at 65.5 this week, with the overpriced at -110. For comparison, FanDuel has his total at 70.5, with the Over at -114. By playing this at Bet365, I get five free yards to play with, and at a better price. For those without access to Bet365, BetMGM also has his yardage number at 65.5, albeit at -115. That is still a great value in my opinion. Most other sportsbooks have this number at either 69.5 or 70.5.
As for the play itself, Pickens has at least 74 receiving yards in each of his last three games. This is significant because it is the first time in his career that Pickens has had at least 70 receiving yards in three straight games. And it hardly seems like a coincidence that this hot streak has come in the first three games of Russell Wilson’s Pittsburgh Steelers tenure. Wilson is the first quarterback that appears qualified to tap into Pickens’ potential. In addition to the chemistry Pickens and Wilson seem to have developed, I like this matchup for Pickens in Week 11. Pittsburgh hosts the Baltimore Ravens this week. Baltimore has allowed the most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers this year. They also rank dead last in the NFL in defensive DVOA versus number-one wide receivers.
Baltimore plays more man coverage than the average NFL team, but they mix up their coverages in general. When they play man, Pickens is most likely to line up against Brandon Stephens. Stephens’ 47.2 coverage grade via Pro Football Focus is the sixth-worst among 109 qualified cornerbacks. The good news for Pickens is that in this recent stretch with Wilson under center, he has produced versus both man and zone. Over this three-game span, Pickens has six catches for 127 yards against man and eight grabs for 149 yards versus zone. Pickens should be able to take advantage of this matchup regardless of what coverage Baltimore deploys. I considered playing Pickens’ longest reception rather than his total yards. But I am going with Pickens to surpass his 65.5 receiving yardage prop in this game.
Amon-Ra St. Brown UNDER 6.5 Receptions (+114, BetRivers)
An under bet at plus money? Now we’re cooking with gas! I’m honestly surprised we are getting this number at this price. Hopefully, that means I am on the right side of it. There are a few reasons I like this play. The Detroit Lions are arguably the best offense in the NFL. They enter this week’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars averaging 31.6 points per contest. Detroit has been even more prolific at home, averaging 34 points per game. That includes 42 and 52 points scored in their last two games at Ford Field. There is a good chance those numbers increase after this week’s outing. Jacksonville ranks 31st in the NFL in defensive DVOA, including 32nd versus the pass. So why would I want to fade one of the best receivers in the league in this spot?
Well, first and foremost, this game should be a mismatch in Detroit’s favor on both sides of the ball. The Lions are favored by 14 points. That is the largest point spread of any game in the NFL this season. I think this line should be even higher, but I digress. If Detroit takes care of business as expected, we should see a decrease in passing volume. The Lions have won four games by at least 10 points this season. Amon-Ra St. Brown has a total of 19 targets in those four games. In fairness to St. Brown, he has caught all 19 and did have seven receptions in one of those outings. But if this game becomes a one-sided affair, St. Brown will not need to do much heavy lifting.
The matchup is also a bit sneaky in its difficulty. While the Jaguars rank last in overall passing DVOA, they rank third in DVOA versus number-one receivers. Jacksonville also plays man coverage at the fifth-highest in the NFL. St. Brown is much more effective versus zone coverage. Per Pro Football Focus, St. Brown has a 15.6 percent target rate versus man coverage, compared to a 28.4 percent rate when facing zone coverage. St. Brown lines up in the slot on over half of his offensive snaps. That means he will line up across from slot corner Jarrian Jones most of the time the Jaguars utilize man coverage. Jones is Jacksonville’s highest-rated cornerback. The Lions have enough weapons to exploit other matchups without having to force-feed St. Brown. This may be a sweat, but that is what makes this one of my favorite Week 11 NFL player props.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!