This might be the last stand for the Dallas Cowboys. They have yet to win at home this season and rumors are lurking in the shadows. We are stuck with Cooper Rush under center for the rest of the season, so it’s certainly an interesting situation. The visitors tonight, the Houston Texans are a team going in the opposite direction as they look to secure an AFC South title. As we consider our DFS picks, there is a lot for us to consider. Houston is favored by a touchdown in what should be a relatively low-scoring game with an over/under of 41.5. Here are some Monday Night Football NFL DFS picks with preferences ranked within each category so you can find success.
Monday Night Football NFL DFS Picks: Texans @ Cowboys
Captain
Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans
A large of this might be because the Cowboys are trailing most weeks, but they are allowing the fourth most DFS points to opposing running backs. Regardless of the cause, running backs have had success against Dallas this year, and Joe Mixon will be next.
Mixon has had a strong debut season with the Texans and that should continue to close out Week 11. He has been a true workhorse option all season, and Mixon has either 24 or 25 carries in each of the last four weeks. He struggled to get going against Detroit with just 46 rushing yards, but Mixon did get score his eighth touchdown of the season. Overall, Mixon is averaging 94 rushing yards per game, and he is in a great spot this week.
CJ Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
There is a lot of good news for CJ Stroud this week. Not only are the Cowboys equally as hospitable to opposing quarterbacks, but Nico Collins is back. That gives Stroud another key weapon in what has been a solid sophomore season for him. To this point, Stroud hasn’t taken the step forward that was potentially expected of him, but the results from a team perspective have been there.
Once again, there is the concern that Stroud averages about 100 more passing yards at home compared to on the road, but this is a matchup to target. Stroud has six touchdowns and three interceptions each along with 2,371 passing yards. Tonight represents a good spot for Stroud to get back on track.
Flex
Ceedee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
If there is anyone to target from Dallas tonight, it’s going to be Ceedee Lamb. For the most part, he is good enough to be considered matchup-proof. However, in this case, it might be more of an issue of whether he is quarterback-proof or not. Last week, that didn’t prove to be the case, but it wasn’t for lack of trying.
Lamb was targeted 10 times and caught six passes which would generally be considered respectable. The problem though, is that he only gained 21 yards. That came a week after Lamb caught eight of 12 targets for just 47 yards. He takes a two-week streak without a touchdown into action tonight and only has four on the season.
Despite the recent struggles, Lamb is averaging 76 receiving yards per game on 59 receptions. Both the talent and opportunity is there as we know Lamb will be heavily targeted once again. The Cowboys will likely be playing from behind, and that lines up for Lamb to be busy.
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
We haven’t seen Nico Collins on the field since Week 5, and it looks like he’s simply jumping back into action tonight. When on the field, Collins averaged 113 receiving yards per game this season on 32 receptions while scoring three touchdowns. He’s clearly capable of big plays and the chemistry with Stroud is well established. It also helps that Stefon Diggs is now sidelined, so Collins should be busier than when we last saw him.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys
If the Cowboys will be trailing, that means Cooper Rush will have to take to the air. As Rush struggles, it also stands to reason that he will target the safety of his tight end. Jake Ferguson should be busy as a safety net for Rush after he was targeted five times last week. He turned that into four receptions for 24 yards. On the surface that doesn’t look too good, but it was about half of Dallas’ passing output. Things should be better tonight, and Ferguson should receive the bulk of that production.
Houston Texans Defense
If we don’t have much faith in Rush or the Dallas offense, the Houston Texans defense should be on our radar. The Cowboys have been a good source of success for opposing defenses, and Houston should be no different. They are coming off a five-interception effort last which gave them 13 on the season. When coupled with five fumble recoveries and 29 sacks, Houston has shown the ability to make things happen. Rush should help facilitate that tonight.
Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans
Just because Collins is making his return, it doesn’t mean we should forget about Tank Dell. In fact, the former can help the latter as it shifts the attention of opposing defenses. Over the last three weeks, Dell had 15 catches on 22 targets for 200 yards and a touchdown. From a statistical standpoint, Dell has taken a step back from last year, but he can still be a solid option.
Value
Brandon Aubrey, K, Dallas Cowboys
If someone is going to score tonight for the Cowboys, it likely will be their kicker. Brandon Aubrey has established himself as one of the best in the league and leg strength is not an issue. Aubrey has seven field goals from between 40 and 49 yards with another nine greater than 50 yards. With a long of 65 yards, he might be Dallas’ best source of offense tonight.
Fade
Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys
While we generally target quarterbacks, and at this point, it’s hard to have confidence in Rush. The problem is that he has also dragged Rico Dowdle down with him. If Dallas is trailing, Dowdle’s opportunities on the ground will be minimal.
In eight games, Dowdle only has 83 carries for 374 yards while adding 166 yards on 24 catches. That is not enough production to meet his cost, and that’s especially the case without Prescott.