Prospects make my fantasy world go ’round, but at the root of every 18- to 24-year-old Minor Leaguer is immense pressure. That pressure comes in many forms, but most notably, external expectations. The combination of organizational pressure, public perception, lofty expectations, and the mental grind that comes with it can break even the most talented athletes. Whether you’re a highly-touted draft pick, a multi-million dollar International signee, or an undrafted JuCO kid, the path to the big leagues is anything but easy.
Getting to the Show and performing in the Show are two very different and independent things. As we saw in 2024, even the best prospects struggle, and nothing is guaranteed. For every Jackson Merrill and Paul Skenes, you have a Coby Mayo or Jackson Holliday. All four players were high-end prospects, but only two performed when the lights came on. This article will highlight five former top prospects with the most to prove in 2025.
5 “Failed” Top Prospect With Something to Prove in 2025
Spencer Torkelson, 1B, DET
Torkelson is the poster child of a player who needs a rebound badly in 2025. As the top overall pick in 2020, the pressure on Tork has been present dating back to his time at Arizona State. It was a quick Minor League stint for Tork, as he dominated across three levels, playing in just 121 games, before he debuted with the Tigers in April 2022.
His first three months in the Majors were a struggle. Tork slashed an ugly .198/.289/.305 with four homers and a 26% strikeout rate. His batted ball metrics were acceptable. He had a 90.5 mph average EV and 41.8% hard-hit rate, but he was hitting a lot of groundballs (45.1%) and weak flyouts. The Tigers sent Torkelson back down to Triple-A to work through some things, and when he was recalled in September, things started to look better. His strikeout rate dropped by 6% with more line drives and flyballs and significantly less groundballs (30.1%).
Tork tried to carry the momentum from 2022 into the following season. By June 1, 2023, he was back into a slump. The young slugger was batting a respectable .242, but the power numbers weren’t there, as he had just four homers and 13 extra-base hits in 52 games. From June 1 forward, Torkelson mashed 27 homers with 21 doubles and 70 RBIs, finishing his sophomore season with a bang. The power surge had happened, albeit with a .233 batting average and 28% strikeout rate. But as fantasy managers, we can deal with a subpar batting average in exchange for a 31-homer corner infielder.
Torkelson took a significant slide in 2024 just as we got our hopes up. Now 25 years old, Torkelson spent 53 games with the Tigers to open 2024, slashing .195/.262/.327 with the same four home runs he had in 2023 and 2022. Once again, Torkelson was headed to Triple-A, where he’d play 58 games with a .239 average and a 37.6% strikeout rate. The underlying issue is that Torkelson could mash breaking balls but wasn’t hitting the heater. That is typically the opposite of young power hitters, but it was his new normal. Eventually, Torkelson returned to Detroit. He fared better down the stretch, batting .248 with six home runs, but his 32.5% strikeout rate loomed large.
As we approach 2025, there is a dark cloud over Torkelson. It’s too soon to give up on a former top prospect, but things haven’t clicked. I’m not optimistic that Torkelson will even start 2025 in the Majors. The Tigers came out of nowhere last season and are firmly in their competitive window. Torkelson’s struggles will be accentuated even more if he holds back a perceived contender, and that’s not ideal for him or his psyche. My gut is that the Tigers will only put Torkelson in a spot to thrive, which may only happen in the middle of next season after a few months at Triple-A.
Noelvi Marte, 3B, CIN
Over the final month of 2023, Reds third-baseman Noelvi Marte looked the part of a top prospect. After all, success was nothing new for Marte, who signed a $1.5M International deal in mid-2018 to join the Mariners organization as a teenager. Marte excelled at every level in the Minors, posting double-digit homers and steals with above-average walk and sub-20% strikeout rates. During the ’21 season, the Reds acquired Marte as part of the Luis Castillo trade, and he continued dominating for his new club. The only knock on Marte as a prospect was how much bulk he added to his 6-foot frame and how it would impact his running game.
When Marte debuted to close 2023, fans got a brief glimpse of his talent as he hit .316 with three homers and six steals in 123 plate appearances. Optimism for Marte entering 2024 was at an all-time high, but it came to a screeching halt when he was suspended for 80 games for a positive PED test. The disappointment was immense for fantasy managers and baseball fans alike as a budding superstar was now sidelined at such a crucial point in his development. When Marte returned from his suspension, things got rough in a hurry. In his final 66 games, he slashed .210/.248/.301 with just four homers, nine steals, and a 31% strikeout rate. His batted-ball metrics plummeted, and Marte spent the last month of 2024 platooning at third base, a position he once looked to control for the next decade.
As Marte embarks on his age-23 season, he will look to shake off the rust and restore his confidence. He’s been playing in the Dominican Winter League this offseason and will have a complete Spring Training to build back up. A player as talented as Marte doesn’t just lose it overnight. He needs to come out strong this Spring to silence the doubters and put his name back into the upper echelon of elite young players.
Francisco Alvarez, C, NYM
It’s strange to include Alvarez on this list. After all, he had a solid 2023, posting 25 home runs in 382 at-bats. The power was encouraging but came with a similar downside as Torkelson: poor batting average and high strikeout rates. Injuries hampered Alvarez last season, as he played in just 100 games, but managed to hit 11 homers with an improved .237 average. But the pressure on Alvarez is nearing an all-time high.
The Mets had a ‘miraculous’ run in 2024, but the roster will significantly change as franchise cornerstone Pete Alonso enters free agency. Enter Francisco Alvarez. Alvarez was once the top prospect in baseball, a designation rarely assigned to a catcher. The ranking was based mainly on his offensive upside behind the plate, a profile built on advanced control of the strike zone and elite power. The Mets need Alvarez to continue on that path as they look to replace the 40+ homers and 100+ RBIs Alonso provided to the lineup.
A healthy Alvarez is the key to the Mets 2025. They got virtually no production from the catcher position while Alvarez was on the IL last season, leaving a wider gap in their lineup. If Alonso departs, the pressure only gets higher, and the former top prospect will need a career year to fill the void.
Kyle Harrison, SP, SFG
Harrison was among the top prep arms in the 2020 Draft class, ultimately landing with the Giants in the third round over concerns about his commitment to UCLA. Harrison got nearly $2.5M in bonus money and joined the professional ranks. The left-hander carved up hitters in the Minor Leagues, generating a 37.2% strikeout rate and holding batters to a .212 average against. His four-seam fastball was particularly dominant, producing a whiff rate of over 40%, which paired well with an already devastating slider and changeup combination. The main concern was control and command, as Harrison struggled to maintain a walk rate below 12%. Regardless, when Harrison made his MLB debut in August 2023, the Giants had expectations that their future ace had arrived.
Harrison has been so-so in his brief tenure with the Giants. His career mark is 8-8, with a 4.47 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 31 starts spanning 159 innings. After missing a ton of bats in the Minors, Harrison has a career 22.5% strikeout rate in the Majors and is averaging less than a strikeout per inning. On the positive side, his walk rate has drastically improved, cutting from double-digits in the Minors to just under 8%. But his arsenal has not reached the levels we anticipated from a top prospect.
Harrison’s three-pitch mix has seen significant regression since the start of his career. His four-seam fastball, which sat in the mid-90s before his MLB debut, averaged just 92.5 mph in 2024, down from 93.6 mph in 2023. However, it still has elite characteristics, specifically over 15 inches of arm side run away from right-handed batters, which ranked in the 98th percentile in iHB (induced horizontal break). In addition, his curveball (formerly a slider) and changeup have become contact-oriented pitches, leaving Harrison only the four-seamer to put hitters away.
Harrison started his professional career at 19 years old, and it feels like he’s been on the cusp of MLB stardom for a while. But it’s easy to forget that he just turned 23 in August and has so much development time left. The problem is that he’s doing it at the highest level, so 2025 will be a critical year for Harrison. We don’t need him to become the ace of the Giants; we need him to make positive strides toward fulfilling his potential.
Reid Detmers, SP, LAA
Before you get too worked up, I have nothing against left-handers. My dad and grandfather are lefties, and just because you do everything with the wrong hand doesn’t give me any hostility or bias. Coincidentally, Detmers is also a left-hander with much to prove. The 25-year-old southpaw was the 10th overall pick in the same draft that saw Torkelson go #1. His path to the Show was similar in that he was a highly touted collegiate player (Louisville) who spent very little time in the Minors before he debuted. For Detmers, that short time included 14 starts across High-A and Double-A. In that time, he was rather impressive, striking out 108 hitters in 62 innings while issuing just 19 walks. Unlike Torkelson, Detmers hasn’t bounced between the Majors and Minors when he’s struggled. Instead, he’s made 75 of his last 90 starts for the big club.
Detmers made his MLB debut on August 1 and had a brief five-game sample to close out the 2021 season. In his five starts, he posted an ERA over 7.00 and was walloped, but considering his inexperience, adverse outcomes were to be expected. Detmers looked like a reliable arm in 2022, making 25 starts for the Angels and finishing with an ERA of 3.77 in 129 innings. His expected stats, a 4.14 xERA, a 3.86 xFIP, and a 4.12 SIERA, all supported his success, and suddenly, the Angels had a solid back-end starter in their rotation at 23 years old. Detmers was fueled by his slider, a pitch he threw 25% of the time that elicited a 35.6% chase rate and 15.7% swinging strike rate (more on the slider later).
Things got more interesting during the 2023 season. Fresh off a successful rookie campaign, Detmers took his strikeouts up a notch, jumping his K-rate over 4% and using his slider more often with similar effectiveness. Although he finished 2024 with a 4.48 ERA, Detmers still looked like an improved pitcher, and expectations were high entering 2024. Cue the fall from grace. The 24-year-old made 12 starts from April through June 1st, and things were ugly. Detmers had a 6.14 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in those starts, and opposing hitters had a .810 OPS against him. Even though his strikeout rate was north of 25%, Detmers was having trouble finishing hitters, and they were battering him all over the park. After allowing just 19 home runs in 2023, Detmers had yielded ten big flys in those 12 starts, including eight in a five-game stretch in May. The Angels had no choice but to send Detmers to Triple-A.
Sending a suddenly home-run-prone pitcher to the PCL is less than ideal, and after seven starts, Detmers ERA looked like a California area code, sitting at 7.10 after allowing 30 earned runs in 36 innings. After two so-so starts and two blow-ups, things turned around. Over his final three MiLB outings, Detmers had 29 strikeouts with 3 ER in 21 innings of work. He rejoined the Angels on September 3rd and got hammered again. He allowed eight homers in 24 1/3 innings, closed the 2024 season with a portly 6.70 ERA, and left wondering about his status on the 2025 Opening Day roster.
The Angels are going to do Angels things, so Detmers will be in the rotation. The stuff is there for the left-hander; he has to command it better. Each of three pitches, his four-seam fastball, slider, and changeup, have generated high swinging strike rates and, with proper command, can give him one of the better arsenals in baseball. 2025 is a weird breaking point for Detmers. There is a high level of frustration with his ineffectiveness, and the manager, Ron Washington, isn’t the type to wait for it to change. If he starts the season well, he will have the stuff to build and regain his confidence. But if he gets off track, this could end his tenure in LA.