Happy Thanksgiving! I am thankful for many things today. First, I am thankful for you taking the time out of your holiday to read this article. If you’re reading this, you’re just like me in that fantasy football is very much at the forefront of your mind, even on a holiday. Second, I am thankful there aren’t any NFL teams on bye in Week 13. After six teams on bye last week, and six teams on bye next week, I’ll cherish the players’ availability now. Lastly, I’m thankful for another opportunity to write about fantasy football. I take this Week 13 risers, fallers, and hot seat very seriously as many of us are still fighting for a playoff spot in our leagues. Let’s see which players we can trust and who perhaps belongs on benches this week.
Week 13 Risers, Fallers, and a Player on the Hot Seat
Risers
Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans
Some of the plays made by Will Levis this season have seemed like a blooper reel. However, he had a particularly difficult start to the season against some of the league’s toughest pass defenses, at their healthiest. Levis was horrifically bad in his first five games before suffering a shoulder injury in Week 6. Since returning in Week 10, however, Levis has been far better.
Levis has thrown five passing touchdowns over his last three starts. In his most recent two starts, Levis has thrown for 295 and 278 yards respectively. Unfortunately, he has an interception in each of his last two games as well as a fumble lost in Week 12. Still, Levis has scored no less than 16.6 fantasy points and upwards of 19.1 since Week 10. If he can limit the turnovers, which is easier said than done it seems, I’d feel a lot better (and admittedly less foolish) about naming Levis a Week 13 riser.
The big reason Will Levis is a Week 13 riser is that he has the best rest-of-season schedule for any quarterback in fantasy football. All five of Levis’ next matchups are against teams that rank inside the top 14 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. That includes a home matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals, who allow the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, in Week 15. More specifically, Will Levis gets two matchups with the Jacksonville Jaguars in Weeks 14 and 17. Ready or not, there are six teams on bye in Week 14. They include significant fantasy football quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and others. Week 17 is the fantasy football championship in most leagues. If needed, Will Levis has the best matchup in each of these weeks.
Even if you don’t want to invest in Will Levis himself, let him being on the Week 13 riser list instill confidence in starting Calvin Ridley. He is by far the top target on the Titans this season. His 80 total targets are 35 more than the next closest player, Tony Pollard. Ridley is averaging seven targets per game since Week 10, Will Levis’ return. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has scored a touchdown in six of his last seven games. That includes each of the last two. While he has no more than three receptions in each of his last three games, he’s averaging 65 yards per game. He may be worth a bench spot in case of emergency based on Will Levis and the Titans’ matchups ahead.
D.J. Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
Since the change in offensive coordinators, the Chicago Bears are emphasizing getting the ball into D.J. Moore’s hands. After averaging just 6.1 fantasy points from Weeks 5 through 10, Moore has averaged 20.6 points per game over the last two weeks with double-digit fantasy points in each. Moore has logged exactly seven targets in each of his last two games. More importantly, he’s caught all of them. Caleb Williams is getting the ball out quickly and into Moore’s hands. Furthermore, the Bears have continued manufacturing touches for Moore with a rush attempt in each of the last two games, as well.
While the rest of the NFC North seemingly runs away and onward to the playoffs, the Chicago Bears stand in each of their way. Chicago will play an NFC North opponent in four of their next six games. That includes three of their next four games, including this week and the first two rounds of the fantasy football playoffs. Luckily, those three games are against the Detroit Lions (twice) and Minnesota Vikings. While both defenses are stingy against the run, they both rank as top-three teams in receptions and receiving yards allowed to opposing wide receivers. This sets up D.J. Moore nicely not only as a Week 13 riser for his Thanksgiving Day game but as a player that can push those with him on their fantasy rosters toward a trip to their league’s championship.
More Quick-Hitting Risers
Rico Dowdle has the stars aligning for him in Week 13. He and the Dallas Cowboys host the New York Giants on Thanksgiving Day. Though it’s a short week, I still expect Dowdle to be busy. Dowdle is averaging 17.5 opportunities (carries + targets) over his last four games. That includes a season-high 22 opportunities in Week 12. In three games without Dak Prescott as the starting quarterback, the Cowboys have leaned more on Dowdle. He’s commanded 74.5% of Dallas’ running back rush share with Cooper Rush under center. In four of the Giants’ last five games, a running back has finished inside the top three in fantasy points scored that week. The other finished as RB15. He’s a sneaky start for Week 13 especially if the Cowboys jump out to a lead limiting the amount of times Cooper Rush has to throw.
Taysom Hill is a Week 13 riser specifically if the fantasy platform you play on allows tight end eligibility for him. Pick him up! Even if you have an elite option like Brock Bowers, Travis Kelce or Trey McBride, it’s best if your opponents don’t have the opportunity to play Taysom Hill against you. The Saints are desperate for playmakers from now until the end of the season. In Hill’s Week 11 explosive performance, he drew a team-high 10 targets and logged seven carries on just 33 snaps. That’s 17 opportunities, of which no other tight end will likely ever see in a game, on 51.5 % of his snaps played! I don’t expect a consistently heavy dose of Taysom Hill each week, but when you consider the points he can rack up running and throwing the ball, he’s arguably a top-five “tight end” any given week in fantasy football.
Braelon Allen has the potential to be a major Week 13 riser if Breece Hall is ruled out on Sunday. Coming out of the Jets’ Week 12 bye, Hall did not practice on Wednesday. He is reportedly dealing with “knee soreness” from their Week 11 matchup with the Colts. It’s never a good thing when a player is absent for the first practice after their bye week. Consider, too, the Jets are 3-8 this season. There’s not a ton of reason for Hall to put himself at risk of a more serious injury, especially having torn his ACL as a rookie. Perhaps signing Zonovan Knight to the practice squad earlier this week is an indication Hall will miss Week 13. If so, Allen is a top-20 play at home against the Seattle Seahawks. He will command a heavy bulk of the carries and should see a handful of targets, as well. If Hall is out beyond Week 13, Allen has league-winning potential.
Fallers
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, New York Giants
It looks as though the New York Giants will start their third different quarterback for the third straight game. Daniel Jones started Week 10, the Giants had their bye, and Jones was benched for Tommy DeVito in Week 12, but now he has a forearm injury, paving the way for Drew Lock to get an opportunity. Oh, yeah, and Daniel Jones was released and has since signed with the Minnesota Vikings. This isn’t even about the quarterbacks, but with poor play from them, the offense inevitably suffers. The Giants got flat-out embarrassed in a 30-7 loss out of the bye week at home in Week 12. Tommy DeVito threw for just 189 yards and the running backs gained just 44 yards on just 12 attempts.
Specifically looking at Tyrone Tracy Jr., he has now fumbled in two straight games. In Week 12, Tracy fumbled on a direct snap in a goal-to-go situation at the five-yard line on the Giants’ first drive of the second half. He didn’t touch the ball again until he caught a pass from Drew Lock with five minutes left in the game. Overall, Tracy logged 65% of the Giants’ backfield opportunities but relinquished his role as the lead back following his turnover. Devin Singletary, and even Eric Gray, mixed in thereafter.
Tracy Jr. has a chance to bounce back in Week 13. However, with all 32 NFL teams in play, I’m less enthused about starting Tracy on a short week, on the road, with Drew Lock running the offense. In this scenario, I think you’re banking on check-down passes to Tracy to pile up PPR fantasy points. It’s possible the Giants give Tracy yet another chance to command the backfield, but it’s more likely Singletary sees his fair share of work and maybe even “starts” the game.
The shame of it is that the Cowboys allow the third-most fantasy points to running backs. A silver lining here is that a solid performance from Tracy in Week 13 would benefit fantasy managers who need him in Week 14, at home against the New Orleans Saints, in a week with six teams on bye. The Saints allow the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs.
Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy looks like he could miss another week with a sore throwing shoulder. He was unable to finish practice last Thursday. That ultimately forced him out of Week 12. Heading into Week 13, reports out of practice are equally as discouraging. Consider, too, the 49ers travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills Sunday night in below-freezing temperatures. Even if Purdy plays, and I don’t think he does, I doubt we see many passes deep downfield.
It’s hard to imagine trusting Purdy in Week 14, either, when you may need a fill-in quarterback with six teams on bye. The 49ers host the Bears. They’ve allowed just nine passing touchdowns this season. At this point, if you have Purdy stashed hoping he is back for that matchup, it may be wise to replace him with a higher upside option. Derek Carr (@ NYG), Kirk Cousins (@ MIN), and even Will Levis (vs. JAX) all come to mind.
You can’t really sit Christian McCaffrey or George Kittle based on their positional value. However, if Purdy isn’t playing, Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings have considerably lower ceilings. So, not only is Brock Purdy a Week 13 faller, but the entire offense might as well be. The 49ers are 5-6. They’re still in the playoff hunt, but for how much longer?
More Quick-Hitting Fallers
Najee Harris has been a steady faller since the Steelers’ Week 9 bye. A lot of this has to do with a healthier Jaylen Warren getting more involved. Since Week 10, Najee Harris has running back rush shares of 55%, 64%, and 57%. He has no more than 63 rush yards in either game. Harris also has a yards-per-carry average of 2.6 yards or worse in two of these three games. Above all else, Harris may have the worst schedule of any running back for the remainder of the fantasy football season. All of his final five opponents rank as bottom-12 teams in fantasy points allowed to running backs. That includes a playoff schedule with two road games against the Eagles (28th) and the Ravens (26th) capped off with a home matchup against the Chiefs (32nd).
Javonte Williams is a player I can’t in good faith recommend starting in Week 13. In fact, I may give up on him altogether. After leading the Broncos with a 9/59/1 rushing line in Week 11, he followed it up with eight carries for negative two yards in Week 12. Six different Broncos recorded a rush attempt in Week 12. All three of Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and rookie Audric Estime remain involved. Over the Broncos’ last four games, Javonte Williams has led the three with 30 total carries. However, Estime has 28 of his own with 20 for McLaughlin. The Broncos play on Monday night. I wouldn’t want my Week 13 matchup to rest in Javonte Williams’ hands. There are plenty of guaranteed high-volume options to play in place of him.
Check out all of our Week 13 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
The Week 13 Hot Seat
Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Walker is on the Week 13 hot seat as a player once trusted as an RB1 that we may have to accept as an RB2, at best. The talent is obvious when watching Walker play. However, first and foremost, the Seahawks offensive line is brutally bad. Walker has just 222 yards before contact on 129 carries this season. That’s an average of 1.72 yards per carry before contact. Compare that to some of the top running backs playing behind obviously better offensive lines: Saquon Barkley (4.16), Jahmyr Gibbs (3.72), Derrick Henry (3.22).
The Seahawks also continue to deploy Zach Charbonnet more frequently than those with Kenneth Walker on fantasy rosters would like. This season, Charbonnet has just three fewer carries than Walker inside the 10-yard line and just one less carry from five yards and in. In Week 12 specifically, two of Charbonnet’s six carries were at the four and one-yard lines, just after the two-minute warning, before halftime. He did not score on either. These were also his second and third carry of the game four drives after his first carry. Make it make sense!
Let’s look at some concrete numbers, though, that really have Walker on the Week 13 hot seat. In his last four games played, Walker is averaging just 2.96 yards per carry. He’s averaging just 12.35 fantasy points per game with no more than 13.9 points in either of them. This is after averaging 22.3 fantasy points per game in his first five games played earlier this season. Walker scored seven touchdowns across his first five games, scoring in all but one of them. He has just one touchdown in his last four games and has surpassed 55 rushing yards just once.
If your trade deadline has not passed yet, Walker is still big enough of a name that you may be able to pair him with another player to upgrade the position. You may also be able to move Walker for another position of need if you have decent running back depth to carry you through the rest of the season. When it comes to Week 13, I’m optimistic about Walker. Prior to their Week 12 bye, the Jets defense allowed at least one rushing touchdown to an opposing running back in four of their last five games played. This is an important week when it comes to evaluating Walker’s value for the fantasy football playoffs.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!