Happy holidays everyone. There are a lot of things to be thankful for. Right near the top of my list is breaking down another DFS slate. On tap for Week 13 is an awesome 10-game slate. Based on upcoming matchups, I expect this week’s scoring in contests will be inflated. This means if any of your rostered players fail to return value off their salary, it could make for a long frustrating day. Nevertheless, I have done the research to identify my top three cash and GPP plays at the skilled positions, top positional fade, and top stacks to help YOU win big. Without further ado, let’s dive into my Week 13 NFL DraftKings picks for the main slate.
Week 13 NFL DFS Picks for the Main Slate
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI): DK $7,700 at BAL (Cash)
The Eagles-Ravens is a fascinating matchup with the highest over/under of (50.5) and huge playoff ramifications for both teams. In a rare occurrence, Philadelphia are (+2.5) road underdogs. A perfect time for Jalen Hurts to have a spike week. Hurts has not been asked to do much the last couple weeks with Saquon Barkley leading the way, but now is his time to step up. Baltimore, schedule adjusted allow the third most DK points per game to QBs with 22.6 (per Pro Football Reference). I can not say enough how much I love Hurts in a negative game script environment.
C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU): DK $6,400 at JAC (Cash)
It has been a bumpy ride for Houston the last few weeks losing two of three games. The good news for C.J. Stroud is Jacksonville returns from their bye. The Jaguars are abysmal against QBs, allowing the most DK points with 24.5 per game (per Pro Football Reference). The last time these two teams met, Stroud had his highest DK output (26.5), passing for 345 yards and throwing two touchdowns. Ironically, Stroud has not scored over 20 DK points since Week 5. Expect that to change this week.
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI): DK $6,100 at MIN (GPP)
Every week you never know which Kyler Murray is going to show up. In Seattle last week Murray burned a lot of people with his poor play scoring 11.3 DK points. Arizona is heading to Minnesota in back-to-back road games. This is a sneaky good spot for Murray. Minnesota is solid against the run but gave up over 300 passing yards to Caleb Williams last week. Murray should have no issues connecting with his playmakers in a controlled environment. Give me the Cardinals in an upset led by a monster game from Murray at low rostership.
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN): DK $7,000 vs. PIT (Fade)
This week’s division matchup against Pittsburgh is do-or-die for Cincinnati. If the Bengals were first place in the AFC North Joe Burrow would be an MVP candidate. Burrow’s play over the last three weeks has been phenomenal, averaging 345 passing yards, four touchdowns, and 32.93 DK points per game. However, the Steelers are a difficult matchup for QBs. On the season, Pittsburgh are allowing a league-low 13.3 DK points per game (per Pro Football Reference). Although Cincinnati are (-2.5) point home favorite, I would pivot to Baker Mayfield in a better spot for $400 less DK.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR): DK $7,200 at NO (Cash)
Over the last month, Kyren Williams’ production has been pedestrian averaging 10.87 DK points per game. Despite that, Williams’ usage has been solid with 18 opportunities during this time. Just like winning, a juicy matchup against the Saints can quickly get things back on track. New Orleans, schedule adjusted, allows the seventh most DK points to RBs with 26.3 per game (per Pro Football). As confident as I am in Los Angeles winning this game, I am even more enthusiastic about Williams’ chances to finish as a top-five RB this week.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE): DK $5,900 vs. IND (Cash)
Consider last week’s game against Miami an anomaly. Rhamondre Stevenson only had eight carries for 13 yards. In Stevenson’s previous four games, he averaged 21 touches, 71.25 total scrimmage yards, and one touchdown per game. Next up for Stevenson is a date with the Colts. Indianapolis is fresh off of giving up 127 rushing yards, 45 receiving yards, and three touchdowns to Detroit RBs. New England are (+2.5) point home dogs to Indy, but if Stevenson can get a rhythm early on, I like his chances to exceed value.
Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT): DK $5,500 at CIN (GPP)
It finally appears that Jaylen Warren is becoming more involved. Warren played 57% of snaps and was RB11 last week. Warren may see plenty of targets with Pittsburgh presumably playing from behind. Cincinnati gives up the 10th fewest DK points to RBs (per Pro Football Reference). Warren will be overlooked by more attractive options, but do not be surprised if he puts up borderline RB1 numbers.
James Conner (RB – ARI): DK $6,600 at MIN (Fade)
Fresh off of receiving a two-year 19 million extension, James Conner is back in action to take on the Vikings. As much as I love Conner’s talent, this spot is brutal. On the season Minnesota allows the second-fewest DK points to RBs with 17.5 per game (per Pro Football Reference). Conner is also a solid pass catcher, but I just do not think there is enough meat on the bone for him to pay off his price tag.
Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown (WR – PHI): DK $8,300 at BAL (Cash)
The Philadelphia Eagles can become the third team to eclipse 10 wins this season if they are victorious in Baltimore. Getting there will not be easy but Baltimore’s secondary has been susceptible to WRs. This is a delightful spot for A.J. Brown. The Ravens give up the second most DK points to WRs with 43 per game (per Pro Football Reference). Brown was the WR6 last week and has an opportunity to break the slate and this week’s WR1.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI): DK $6,000 at MIN (GPP)
Like his QB, Marvin Harrison Jr. was a disappointment last week scoring 7.7 DK points. Harrison Jr’s upcoming schedule is solid with Minnesota, Seattle, and New England on the docket. Speaking of Minnesota, they currently allow the most DK points to WRs with 43.1 per game (per Pro Football Reference). Because Harrison Jr been so boom-bust, he is going to be a nice leverage play.
Darnell Mooney (WR – ATL): DK $5,600 vs. LAC (Cash)
There have been a lot of gems in football this year. Darnell Mooney may be the biggest gem of them all. Mooney is the WR12 on the season with 81 targets, 48 receptions, 711 yards, and five touchdowns. Mooney’s matchup versus the Chargers is decent. Los Angeles surrenders the 14th most DK points to WRs (per Pro Football Reference). Furthermore, in the last two weeks, Los Angeles has allowed WR2s to have big games. Tee Higgins had nine catches for 148 yards and a touchdown off of 13 targets in Week 11. Rashod Bateman recorded two receptions for 43 yards and a touchdown off of three targets in Week 12. Mooney is going to smash this week.
DK Metcalf (WR – SEA): DK $6,400 at NYJ (Fade)
Last week Seattle had a huge win against division rival Arizona Cardinals. DK Metcalf was not much of a factor, but he did have four catches for 59 yards off of five targets. I expect a similar output this week versus a tough Jets defense. On the season, New York is the stingiest team against WRs with 27 DK points allowed per game (per Pro Football Reference). For $300 less DK, I prefer Ladd McConkey in a better matchup.
Tight Ends
Cade Otton (TE – TB): DK $4,500 at CAR (Cash)
It has been three quiet weeks for Cade Otton, yet he is the TE6 on the season. Otton will not be silent again this week with a fantastic matchup against the Panthers. Carolina concedes the most DK points to TEs with 18.4 per game (per Pro Football Reference). To put this in context, both Noah Gray and Travis Kelce finished in the top 12 last week. Now it is Otton’s turn to go off.
Hunter Henry (TE – NE): DK $4,200 vs. IND (GPP)
With many looking to pay up at TE this week, it is causing Hunter Henry to go under the radar. This is a mistake. Henry is one of Drake Maye’s most trusted targets. In the last two weeks, Henry has averaged five and a half receptions, 53.5 yards, and eight and a half targets. Indy, schedule adjusted, allows the ninth most DK points to TEs (per Pro Football Reference). Get Henry in your lineups.
Mark Andrews (TE – BAL): DK $3,900 vs. PHI (GPP)
In five of the last seven games, Mark Andrews has scored double-digit DK points. For some time it had looked like Andrews had fallen off a cliff with how poorly he was playing. The matchup against Philly is not ideal but someone has to catch the ball from Lamar Jackson. The Eagles defense has been stout across all skill positions. Out of everyone from Baltimore’s passing attack, I trust Andrews the most. The best part about rostering Andrews this week is you are getting major upside without him being popular.
Zach Ertz (TE – WAS): DK $3,800 vs. TEN (Fade)
Washington has experienced a funky losing streak but that does not take away how Zach Ertz has been playing. Ertz has scored double-digit DK points while averaging seven and a half targets per game. However, this week against Tennessee I am pumping the brakes. The Titans allow the seventh-fewest DK points to TEs (per Pro Football Reference). I would take my chances on Pat Friermuth for $300 less DK.
Check out all of our Week 13 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
Top Stacks
1. Bucs-Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Cade Otton
2. Texans-C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon, Nico Collins
3. Eagles-Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith (if he plays)
4. Cardinals-Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey Mcbride
5. Rams-Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua
Make sure to check out all of our Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!