Welcome to the 2024 fantasy football playoffs. If you’re reading this, you still care. You still care because you still have a shot at your league’s title. Whether it’s your first time or you’re a frequent flyer in the playoffs, you’ve probably heard the phrase “start your studs” before. While it’s a good rule of thumb, there are a lot of studs unavailable to us for one reason or another as we begin this final three-game stretch. That being said, this list of Week 15 risers, fallers, and a player on the hot seat is here with the intention of identifying players worth trusting in or leaving out of your quarterfinal lineups.
Week 15 Risers, Fallers, and a Player on the Hot Seat
Risers
Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings
This Week 15 riser is for the playoff managers who got here streaming the quarterback position. After posting a season-high 34.58 fantasy points last week, Darnold has firmly given us the confidence we may (or may not for some) have needed to set and forget him in playoff lineups. His season-best fantasy showing in Week 14 is just the most recent of a four-game heater. Since Week 11, Darnold is the QB5 on a points-per-game basis (24.7) with the third-most total points over this span.
Sam Darnold has been in a fantasy-friendly spot all season long. Not only does head coach Kevin O’Connell have a history of success with quarterbacks, but the weapons in Minnesota make it that much easier to do so. Darnold has had his full compliment of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones from Week 9 onward. His 21.9 fantasy points per game since then make him the QB5 too.
Enough about the past. Let’s look at Darnold’s road ahead in the fantasy football playoffs. He begins hosting the Bears, then travels to Seattle to face the Seahawks, with a fantasy championship game back at home against the Packers. All three teams rank in the bottom half of the league in matchups for opposing quarterbacks. The Bears and Packers specifically are both bottom-10 matchups. However, Darnold has faced both teams before. He scored 21.5 points against the Packers in Week 4 and just dropped 21.1 against the Bears.
Including Darnold’s own score against the Bears, Chicago’s defense has allowed an average of 20.04 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks over the last three weeks. There’s a clear top-four at the position of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow. I think Sam Darnold is a proven Week 15 riser and should remain firmly in that top-five conversation, just as he has over the second half of the season.
Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers
It’s hard to imagine telling yourself back in September that Adam Thielen would be a legitimate option in the 2024 fantasy football playoffs. Over the first three weeks, Thielen averaged four targets per game. He failed to reach 50 receiving yards in any of them and scored one touchdown in Week 3, but injured his hamstring while doing so. It caused him to miss a significant amount of time. He did not return until Week 12. Above all else, Bryce Young looked like the absolute worst quarterback in the league at the start of the season. I think there was a legitimate narrative that the Panthers would be drafting a quarterback in the 2025 NFL Draft.
And yet here we are. Thielen is a Week 15 riser, especially after his last two games. In Weeks 13 and 14, Thielen has logged 10 and 11 targets respectively, the most on the Panthers in each game and in totality, of course. He’s also produced 99 and 102 yards respectively, as well, with a touchdown in Week 13. Though Bryce Young still has room to grow, he has eight total touchdowns over his last six games after failing to throw any, and rush for just one, in his first four games.
Thielen and the Panthers have a very favorable fantasy football playoff schedule. They host the Cowboys and Cardinals then wrap up in Week 17 on the road against the Buccaneers. All three teams rank inside the top nine in receptions allowed to opposing wide receivers. This bodes well for Thielen who is the obvious top target for Bryce Young as of late. Thielen’s fantasy floor as a result is that much higher heading into Week 15. All three teams rank inside the top 15 in yards allowed to the position, as well. The Cowboys and Buccaneers specifically rank inside the top 10.
It’s hard to bank on touchdowns to begin with, but a bit more when it comes to Bryce Young. Though he has thrown a touchdown pass in six straight games, his one and only game with multiple passing touchdowns came at the end of October when he threw two against the Broncos. Plugging Thielen into your Week 15 lineup is purely a high-floor WR3 with the potential for more if he can in fact connect with Young in the end zone.
More Quick-Hitting Risers
Sincere McCormick deserves a spot on the Week 15 risers list again after living up to his place on the Week 14 risers list. Heading into the fantasy football playoffs, we have assurance that McCormick will remain the lead back in Las Vegas even with Alexander Mattison (ankle) set to return. Though McCormick has just 32 total carries this season, all in the last three weeks, he is averaging a strong 5.5 yards per carry. An impressive 18.75% of McCormick’s runs have gone for 10 or more yards. He has a run of at least 17 yards in each of the last three games, as well. Though he has yet to find the end zone, volume should eventually prevail. McCormick doesn’t play until Monday Night Football in Week 15, but is a high-floor flex play worth waiting for in most leagues.
Isaiah Davis is another Week 15 riser running back who should and could have a late-season surge. There’s justifiably hype around Braelon Allen. The 20-year-old rookie has looked like a veteran at times sharing the backfield with Breece Hall this season on a dysfunctional Jets team. However, Davis was taken just a round after Allen and held his own in a season-best game last week. He played just one less snap than Allen and logged just two fewer touches in Week 14. However, Davis still produced a 10/40/1 rush line adding another 27 yards on three receptions as a pass-catcher. I don’t expect Breece Hall (knee) to return in Week 15 and perhaps not this season. Davis belongs on rosters everywhere, even if just to block other playoff teams from utilizing him.
Pat Freiermuth is the TE13 on a fantasy points-per-game basis since the Steelers’ Week 9 bye. However, Taysom Hill is technically the TE1 over this five week span despite playing in just three games, one of which he scored three rushing touchdowns and 42.5 fantasy points. So, really, Freiermuth is the TE12 since Week 10 if you remove Hill. That just sounds better, doesn’t it? What really sounds good is that Freiermuth has caught 22 of his 23 targets from Russell Wilson for 276 yards and three touchdowns since Wilson took over as the starting quarterback. Especially with George Pickens tending to a hamstring injury, Freiermuth is a Week 15 riser in a likely neutral or negative game script against the Eagles.
Fallers
Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Before the season started, I did a “Week 1 Risers, Fallers, and Hot Seat” piece for players whose values changed heading into the start of the season. The entire Atlanta Falcons offense was on my first hot seat of the season; a hot couch, if you will. Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson make up three straight top-10 picks for the Falcons. This season, they seemingly got the quarterback upgrade we’ve been waiting for, now with understandable pressure to produce. Unfortunately, as we head into the fantasy football playoffs, this entire offense is hard to trust again. A lot of it has to do with Week 15 faller, Kirk Cousins.
Kirk Cousins has thrown eight interceptions and zero touchdowns over his last four games. Read that again.
The Falcons have lost the NFC South divisional lead on their current four-game losing streak. Cousins is a statue just waiting to crumble every time he drops back to pass. In Week 15 specifically, he shouldn’t be anywhere near fantasy football playoff lineups. The Las Vegas Raiders have allowed 27.8 points per game this season, the third-highest average in the league. If the Falcons were to approach this number in Week 15, I expect most of the scoring to be done on the ground. However, the Raiders have tightened up as of late on defense. Over their last three games, they’ve allowed just 92.7 rush yards per game. That’s the eight-lowest average in the league over this span.
Since Kirk Cousins is a Week 15 faller, it’s worth questioning how valuable those around him are in your lineup. Kyle Pitts is useless at this point and doesn’t even belong on redraft fantasy football rosters. Ray-Ray McCloud has more targets (18) than Darnell Mooney (13) since their Week 12 bye. Drake London has 26, good enough for an elite 34.6% target share. He is the only Atlanta pass catcher worth a serious start in Week 15. Despite not scoring a touchdown, London has still managed a 14.0 fantasy points per game as the WR26 since Week 10.
I’ve gone on talking about the entire Falcons offense again, but this is about Kirk Cousins. If he doesn’t show up against the Raiders in Week 15, he will be truly impossible to trust against the Giants and Commanders in Weeks 16 and 17. I doubt it happens, but there’s always a chance rookie Michael Penix gets a chance at the end of this season. Plugging Cousins into your 2QB or Superflex lineups could cost you your season.
More Quick-Hitting Fallers
D’Andre Swift is having a roller coaster of a season. After looking like one of the worst running backs in the league over the first three weeks, Swift went on to average 18.3 PPR points per game as the RB7 from Weeks 4 through 11. Since then, however, he has not scored more than 9.5 points in his last three games. It’s time to get off of the ride. Swift faces the Vikings and Lions in the next two weeks. They are both bottom-five fantasy matchups for opposing running backs.
Travis Etienne is a Week 15 faller after logging just four carries in Week 14. It was Tank Bigsby who led the way for the run game with an 18/55/1 rushing line. How can we trust Etienne at this point when it matters most? He has not reached 50 rushing yards in a game since September. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 2. The only silver lining is the potential to score points as a pass catcher. Etienne caught all four of his Week 14 targets for 50 yards. However, that ties a season-high receptions, of which he’s hit just once, and is a season-high in yards accounting for 30.4% of his receiving yards this season. I prefer someone like Week 15 riser Sincere McCormick to Etienne at this point in the season.
Jayden Reed probably belongs on the hot seat after a Week 14 goose egg, but I’ll discuss my apprehensions briefly here as a Week 15 faller. Reed has led the Packers offense in targets in just three games this season. While he leads the team with 59 targets, three other Packers have over 50 targets, as well. Reed isn’t the clear-cut top target for Jordan Love that many, including myself, thought he would be. Let’s hope Week 14 was more of a fluke than anything, but Reed playing a season-low 25 snaps (50%) is concerning. If you want a piece of the Packers, consider starting tight end Tucker Kraft. He plays the Seattle Seahawks who are tied in allowing the seventh-most receptions to tight ends this season. You’re more than likely looking for upside at that position with anlternative options to Reed among your wide receivers.
The Week 15 Hot Seat
A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Just because a player is on the hot seat, doesn’t mean you should bench them. Some players I’ve put on the hot seat this season have come with a warning expressing my disbelief that they will improve. Others on the hot seat have been put there due to poor performance, but with the expectation that they can turn it around. That’s the case for A.J. Brown on the Week 15 hot seat. All week there’s been a perception that Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown have been at odds with each other. This, of course, is a result of a question Brown received as to what the offense needs to improve upon (even after their ninth-straight win) to which he provided a one-word response: Passing.
I’ve done my best this week to remove my fandom bias when looking at this situation. I do believe the Eagles have handled putting out the ensuing fire well. The comment comes across more as an honest approach to the standard this team should have for itself not being met, especially through the air on offense. So, what do I think the Eagles will emphasize at home in Week 15 against the Pittsburgh Steelers? Passing.
Since the Eagles’ Week 5 bye, A.J. Brown is averaging just over six targets per game. He’s just under 80 receiving yards per game this season and has scored just four receiving touchdowns with just one in the last seven games. Week 1 is the only week in which Brown logged double-digit targets. It’s easy to understand why Brown may be frustrated as those with him on their fantasy football rosters are, too. You’re not benching A.J. Brown, however. In fact, the last time he played the Steelers, he caught six of 10 targets for 156 yards and three touchdowns in 2022. That, of course, is before the Steelers bolstered their secondary, specifically by drafting cornerback Joey Porter Jr.
I do believe Brown will show up in Week 15. He has to, especially as the Eagles push for a franchise record of 10 straight wins and remain in the hunt for the top seed in the NFC. They’ve beaten their last nine opponents by an average of 13.5 points per game. The Steelers should be more of a competitive contest demanding more from the Eagles’ passing game. Let’s hope A.J. Brown gets going quickly and the Week 15 hot seat cools off just as fast.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!