We have had some fun with the Cook Out Clash and Daytona Duels but now it’s time to get down to business as the 2025 regular season is finally here! Unlike any other sport, the NASCAR season begins with one of the biggest races of the year, the Daytona 500.
From a fantasy perspective, the Daytona 500 is one of the least predictable and has a very high variance in terms of lineup building. This is a common theme when it comes to superspeedway racing due to the draft and high-risk nature of the overall racing atmosphere. This is why we are always talking about the “big one” referring to a wreck that eliminates multiple cars from the field. There have also been plenty of superspeedway races where we have seen multiple wrecks leaving very few cars on the lead lap in the closing stages of the race. With this, we see almost every driver in the field garner some sort of value and always, fantasy strategy comes down to place differential more than anything.
The Duels are over and the field is set so let’s dig in and look at some of the top plays for DraftKings and FanDuel. Here are the Top 10 drivers in my post-qualifying model this week:
- Alex Bowman
- Kyle Busch
- Christopher Bell
- Cody Ware
- Brad Keselowski
- A.J. Allmendinger
- Zane Smith
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Ty Gibbs
- Justin Haley
Daytona 500 Picks: Core Plays
Brad Keselowski (DK $9,200 / FD $12,000)
Keselowski and the #6 team will be going to a backup car and will start 34th on Sunday. I am not at all concerned about the backup car but love the second-tier pricing on DraftKings to go along with some elite place differential upside. Brad always presents some risk at superspeedway tracks as he loves to take risks and it shows with his track history. Over his last 10 races at Daytona, he has four Top 10s but also has four wrecks and finishes outside of 30th. He is one of the best superspeedway racers in NASCAR and is tied for the lead with five Top 10’s on the track type over the last two years and has the 5th-best average finish(13.9). He is easily a core play for me this week.
Alex Bowman (DK $8,200 / FD $7,800)
Like Keselowski, Bowman is also going to a backup car but offers some elite place differential upside starting 38th on Sunday. What is even more enticing is the mid-tier price point on both sites combined with some excellent track history at Daytona. Over the last 10 races, he has tallied five Top 10’s, seven finishes of 16th or better and only failed to finish the race once in that time. Looking at his superspeedway form over the last two years, he has four Top 5’s, five Top 10’s, nine Top 20’s and the 4th best average finish(13.8). He is #1 in my model this week and my favourite play on both sites.
Martin Truex Jr. (DK $7,200 / FD $6,200)
After retiring following the 2024 season, the 2017 Cup Series Champion and long-time crew chief Cole Pearn is returning to run the Daytona 500. He had to race his way in with the Tricon #56 car and did so in Duel #1 with a 15th-place finish. With that, he will start 39th and like the two drivers above, provide us with elite place differential upside. While the track history is in another car, Truex has finished 15th or better in three straight Daytona 500s and 25th or better in eight of his last nine trips to Daytona overall. He is #8 in my overall model and while there is some risk, the price is very cheap on both sites making him a top play for me this week.
Daytona 500 Picks: Secondary Plays
Kyle Larson (DK $9,900 / FD $10,000)
While Larson doesn’t provide elite place differential like the drivers above, he starts 22nd on Sunday. Even with the second-highest price on DraftKings, that means he can still return 6x value with the Top 4 finish. There is risk here as Larson doesn’t have the best recent track record here at Daytona but did have three straight Top 10s at the Daytona 500 from 2019-2021. This is also the most place differential upside he has given us since back in 2019 so I am willing to take on some risk as he looks to complete the Crown Jewel quest.
Zane Smith (DK $5,800 / FD $4,800)
Smith moves to Front Row Motorsports in 2025 to drive the #38 car and returns to Daytona with some excellent track history considering the equipment. He has now raced at Daytona three times in a Cup car and finished 13th in each one including back-to-back Daytona 500’s in 2023 and 2024. In 2022, he won the Truck Series race at Daytona en route to a championship-winning season.
What stands out the most here is that he is near the minimum price on both sites and is starting way back in 37th, providing elite place differential upside. He will likely be highly owned but really helps if you are loading up on drivers near the top of the salary.
Daniel Suarez (DK $7,300 / FD $6,500)
Suarez is a driver who checks off almost every box for fantasy purposes this weekend. First of all, he gives us elite place differential value starting 36th, combined with a value price tag on both sites. While his performance at Daytona was less than ideal in 2024 as he got caught up in crashes in both races, he did have Top 25 finishes in five straight before that. He also has some decent superspeedway results over the last two years with a win at Atlanta last year with three Top’s, five Top 10s, and the 11th-best average finish(17.3).
