From one drafting style track to another as the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Ambetter Health 400 this Sunday. This style of racing tends to lead to a lot of carnage and that is what happened at the Daytona 500 with multiple wrecks and a lot of good equipment being tore up along the way. It was William Byron who slipped through potential danger in overtime to capture his second straight Daytona 500 win.
While both Daytona and Atlanta fall under a similar track type umbrella, they are quite a bit different. Atlanta was classified as a standard mile and a half track up until 2022 when it was reconfigured into the setup we see today. The track is still the same worn down asphalt but is now more narrow(55 to 40 feet) and has four more degrees of banking in the turns.
Those changes to the track bumped the importance of place differential similar to what we see at Daytona and Talladega. During the first three races under the new configuration, we saw nine, nine, and eight drivers finish with double-digit place differential. We then saw that increase even more over the last three races with the new configuration as there were 14, 13, and 11 drivers in those races who picked up double-digit place differential.
While place differential importance has gone up at Atlanta, we still can’t discount dominator points. Two of the first three races on the new configuration saw a driver lead 100 or more laps and there were combined 11 drivers to lead 20 or more laps over the two Atlanta races in 2024.The overall lineup building strategy will ultimately be dictated by the starting lineup but as we can see with the data above, we will have to balance both dominator points and place differential to get to the optimal lineup.
The overall lineup building strategy will ultimately be dictated by the starting lineup but as we can see with the data above, we will have to balance both dominator points and place differential to get to the optimal lineup. Let’s take a look at a few drivers who stand out pre-qualifying as good bets and potential fantasy plays.
Ambetter Health 400: Pre-Qualifying Targets
William Byron (#24 Hendrick Motorsports)
No better place to start than with Byron who checks almost every box this week. He is coming off a historic, second straight Daytona 500 win and now returns to Atlanta Motor Speedway where he has had similar success. There have been six races at the newly configured speedway and Byron has won two of them and is second among all drivers with 173 laps led during that stretch. He knows how to get it done on drafting tracks and leads all drivers with an 11.5 average finish which includes three wins, five Top 5’s, nine Top 10’s, and 10 Top 20’s since the start of the 2023 season. Make it four wins if we include the 2022 season.
Byron will most definitely be a favorite to win here in Atlanta once again and has the ability to lead a bunch of laps if starting near the front and also a huge upside should he qualify further back in the pack.
Ryan Blaney (#12 Team Penske)
If any driver was upset about the reconfiguration, it should have been Blaney who had three Top 5’s including a win at the old Atlanta setup before construction started in late 2021. After a 17th-place finish in 2022, he has taken off at the track and posted five straight Top 10 finishes including a 2nd and a 3rd last year. Despite not making it to victory lane on the new configuration yet, he leads all drivers with a 7.2 average finish and is one of five drivers to lead more than 100 laps. That success just added to his already impressive superspeedway success and over the last three years, Blaney ranks 5th in average finish(14.8) on the track type with a win, four Top 5’s, and eight Top 10 finishes. One of the things I like the most about Blaney is that he and his Team Penske teammates are among the best drafters in the series and work very well together. This puts Blaney in a category like Byron where he could be a dominator, place differential king, and possibly both!
Daniel Suarez (#99 Trackhouse racing)
Suarez won a three-wide, photo finish last spring by .003 seconds but it was not a fluke as he has easily been the most dominant driver at the newly configured Atlanta Motor Speedway. Over the six-race sample size since the start of 2022, Suarez has finished 6th or better in five of them with three straight finishes of 2nd or better! He owns a series-leading 7.3 average finish and from a fantasy standpoint, has been dominant averaging 53.7 DK/66.8 FD points per race at Atlanta.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (#47 Hyak Motorsports)
Things didn’t start out well for Stenhouse on the new configuration as he failed to finish both races here in 2022. Things have been much better since as he has four straight finishes of 17th or better with two Top 10 finishes and was fourth in DraftKings scoring average during the two races in 2024. The fantasy scoring with Stenhouse comes from routinely starting further back in the pack (18.2 average start on new configuration) and providing us elite place differential upside. With that, we will want to pay close attention during qualifying on Saturday morning.
Corey Lajoie (#01 Rick Ware Racing)
Looking for some potential value plays, it is hard to ignore Corey Lajoie who returns to Atlanta with three Top 15’s in the six races since the reconfiguration including two impressive Top 5 finishes. From a fantasy perspective, the elite PTS/$ he has earned comes from his average start position of 29.8 so qualifying(not so well) will once again be key. Atlanta isn’t the only drafting track he has been consistent at either as he is 9th in average finish(16.5) and second in DraftKings scoring(40.8) over the last 13 drafting-style races going back to the start of the 2023 season.
