The NASCAR Cup Series returns after an off-week and heads to Talladega Superspeedway for the Jack Link’s 500 this Sunday afternoon. This will be third drafting-style race of the season after Daytona and Atlanta kicked off the 2025 season. Like Atlanta and all other drafting style races outside of the Daytona 500, there will be a qualifying session and no practice.
From a fantasy perspective, place differential will be the core of our lineup construction this week. Looking at the track data, Talladega is 23rd in average correlation of starting position but second only to Daytona when looking at drivers who finish with double-digit place differential. Both races at Dega in 2024 saw 13 or more drivers with double-digit place differential, and there have been at least 10 to do so in eight of the last 10 races here. Only once during that stretch has there been a driver to lead 50 or more laps(Ryan Blaney in 2020).
Let’s dive in and look at some trends leading up to race weekend.
Jack Link’s 500: Track History
No driver has been as consistent at Talladega as William Byron who leads all current drivers with a 10.0 average finish over the last 10 races. He has been even better in the NextGen car with four straight finishes of 7th or better and no finish outside of 15th during that stretch. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won the fall race here in 2024 and is one of just two drivers to finish Top 5 in both races at Dega last year. Due to his lack of top qualifying, he also leads the series with an average of 45.8 DK points per race in the NextGen car. Brad Keselowski finished 2nd here at Dega in both races in 2024, won here in 2021 and has Top 5 finishes in five of his last eight trips. Ryan Blaney is the only driver in the field with multiple wins here at Talladega over the last 10 races and has the 3rd best average finish(12.5) in the NextGen era. From a value standpoint, Erik Jones has been consistent here with seven Top 10 finishes in the last 10 and is 4th in average finish(14.2) in the NextGen era.
Jack Link’s 500: Track Type History
William Byron has not only been consistent at Talladega, but he has been terrific on superspeedway/drafting-style tracks. He has won back-to-back Daytona 500s, has a win at the new setup in Atlanta, and leads all drivers with a 12.6 average finish over the last 14 drafting-style races. Only two other drivers in Joey Logano(2) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.(2), have multiple wins on superspeedway tracks since the start of the 2023 season. Stenhouse has been the far more consistent option with the 6th-best average finish(15.2) during that stretch, versus Logano, who sits with a 19.4 average finish. In terms of consistency, Kyle Busch is right behind Byron with a 12.7 average finish and picked up a win here at Talladega in the spring of 2023. Christopher Bell won the most recent drafting-style race at Atlanta earlier this spring and has also been consistent, finishing 6th or better in four of the last five races on the track type.
Jack Link’s 500: Form
The last four races have been a battle between Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson, as they each have two wins during that stretch. Hamlin has been more consistent with four straight Top 5 finishes and a 6.8 average finish during that five-race stretch. Larson had an incident at Darlington, finishing 37th, but has 491 laps led in the last five races to lead the series and has five Top 10 finishes in the last six races. William Byron won the Daytona 500 to start the year, and while he has just two Top 5s over the last five races, he is second only to Hamlin with his 9.2 average finish and third to Hamlin and Larson with 254 laps led. Christopher Bell was on a roll, winning three straight at Atlanta, COTA, and Phoenix, but like Byron, he has just two Top 5s and three Top 10s in the last five races. Despite that, he has still been consistent with the fourth-best average(10.8) during that stretch. Ross Chastain has been a driving picking up momentum lately with three straight Top 10 finishes and is one of just three drivers with four Top 10s in the last five races. Joining him in building momentum is Ty Gibbs, who had an ugly 25.7 average finish over his first six races but has gone 13th, 9th, and 4th over the last three, adding to a red-hot stable of Joe Gibbs Racing cars.
Jack Link’s 500: Top Targets
William Byron (DK $10,000 / FD $11,000)
It all depends on qualifying here at Talladega, but William Byron is at the top of my list as of now. He has not only been consistent here at Talladega with four straight Top 10 finishes, but he also leads all drivers with three wins and nine Top 10s on drafting style tracks since the start of the 2023 season.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (DK $7,500 / FD $6,800)
Stenhouse won the most recent race here at Talladega during the 2024 playoffs and was one of just three drivers with Top 10s in both races here last year. He is also one of three drivers with multiple wins on drafting style tracks since the start of 2023. He comes at a value price on both sites, checks both track and track history boxes, and also consistently qualifies near the back of the pack in these races.
Erik Jones (DK $6,400 / FD $5,000)
Going even further down the salary is my top pre-qualifying PTS/$ value, Erik Jones. He returns to Talladega with excellent track history with Top 10 finishes in seven of the last 10 races here and with his below-average qualifying runs, sits second in average DraftKings and FanDuel scoring during that stretch.
