When you think you have it all figured out, the NFL laughs at you. Just kidding. Let’s think again about what you thought you knew that isn’t really true.
The Green Bay Packers playing at home against the Carolina Panthers should be a sure victory, right? Guess again. A home matchup for the Detroit Lions against the Minnesota Vikings and a quarterback, JJ McCarthy, who hasn’t played most of the year due to injury? No, that’s another loss too.
The Los Angeles Rams and Los Angeles Chargers did hold up their ends of the bargain, but it was a rough week. That’s not going to stop us, though, as we move onto the next slate of games. Let’s jump right into our Week 10 NFL Survivor Picks.
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Week 10 NFL Survivor Picks
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins – Bills -8.5
Divisional games are always a little tougher, but you have to take what the schedule gives you. The fact that this game is in November removes whatever home-field advantage that Miami might have. With an over/under of 50.5, a lot of offense is expected. However, do you really think that Tua Tagovailoa can outduel Josh Allen?
The Dolphins do have a few extra days of rest, but it comes after they were simply destroyed at home by the Baltimore Ravens. The Dolphins are scoring 20 points per game this season while allowing 27. That’s not exactly a recipe for success. It also stands in direct contrast to a Buffalo team scoring 29.4 points per game compared with the 20.9 points they allow on defense.
With injuries to both Tyreek Hill and Darren Waller, the Dolphins have become light on receiving threats. Buffalo is simply the stronger team, and from a survivor perspective, that’s what matters.
Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders – Broncos -9.5
With the Las Vegas Raiders facing the Denver Broncos to begin the week, you have to make your decision early. It’s an interesting spot as the Raiders enter the week on a two-game losing streak while the Broncos are in the midst of a six-game winning streak. Denver is also unbeaten at home this season, so things line up nicely for the Broncos.
Especially in a short week, things are generally going to favor the better team. In this case, that’s the Broncos. Despite getting Brock Bowers back, it’s not going to be an easy matchup for the Raiders’ offense. They traded Jakobi Meyers this week, and the Raiders have struggled through the air all season (24th overall). Even with rookie Ashton Jeanty, things aren’t so good on the ground either (29th overall). That has translated to the Raiders ranking 29th in the league with just 16.5 points scored per week.
That doesn’t line up well with a Denver defense that’s ranked fourth overall with just 18.4 points allowed per game. It’s also a good matchup for the Broncos when they have the ball as Bo Nix has shown the ability to make things happen.
Divisional matchups are tough, but the Broncos are the hot team and are at home. That makes them one of our survivor picks for the week.
Check out all of our Week 10 Rankings: Flex Rankings | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings
Detroit Lions at Washington Commanders – Lions -8.5
Back to the Detroit Lions we go. Coming off the tough home loss to the Minnesota Vikings, I’d expect to see the Lions bounce back. The fact that Jayden Daniels will be sidelined certainly helps Detroit’s cause.
Washington’s offense hasn’t been especially strong this season as it’s scoring 22.3 points per game (20th overall). The Lions have a middle-of-the-road defense, but they are in a position to succeed this week. Offensively, the Lions have a clear advantage.
Led by Jared Goff, but also a strong running game, Detroit is second in the NFL with 29.9 points per game. Washington allows 26.2 points per game, and they’re likely to struggle against the Lions this week.
Despite being 5-3, the Lions haven’t had a truly dominant season. Goff is clearly a better quarterback than Marcus Mariota, and that’s the starting point here.
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints – Panthers -5.5
There’s the potential for a letdown here as the Carolina Panthers are coming off a strong victory in Green Bay against the Packers. At 5-4, the Panthers are having a solid season with a 3-1 record at home. That’s where they face the New Orleans Saints this week in what’s a very winnable game.
The Saints struggled, which isn’t surprising, last week against the Los Angeles Rams. It was a tough matchup, and it was only heightened as Tyler Shough made his starting debut. After the Saints traded Rashid Shaheed this week, things got that much harder for Shough and the New Orleans offense.
Statistically, the Panthers aren’t going to wow anyone. However, the Saints are even worse as they are scoring 15.3 points per game while allowing 27. That’s not a recipe for success. Carolina has shown the ability to play close games and pick up victories, and this week should be no different.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
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