Wow, what a Thursday night game. The past couple weeks of games on Thursday’s slate have been nothing short of exhilarating to watch. After a slight downtick in passing offense last season we have seen the league rebound with a vengeance. We must begin to come to grips with the numerous records that may fall this year as team after team airs it out. After three games, we have a better idea of what to expect from players we weren’t quite sure about on draft day. For instance, we know the roles of “high upside” picks like Kenny Golladay and LA Rams newcomer Brandin Cooks. We also have a decent sample of what defenses are good against what this season. We know what offenses are creative and what play callers to trust on gameday. Let’s use all we’ve learned and build a winning lineup with my Week 4 Start and Sit.
Week 4 Start or Sit
Start These Quarterbacks
Andy Dalton
The Red Rifle has put together an under the radar excellent season so far. A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, and Tyler Eifert are proving to be extremely difficult to stop this year and Dalton is the main beneficiary of such reliable targets. This week, Dalton will face an Atlanta Falcons defense down two safeties and that currently ranks eighth worst in passing defense so far this year. This matchup could very easily be another of this year’s many shootouts.
Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield is one of two rookies set to make their first start this Sunday. He also couldn’t be in a better spot. As we’ve seen with the most productive quarterbacks this season (Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan), production is directly tied to the quality of their ancillary pieces. Baker now takes over an offense boasting a top-20 receiver in Landry, a top-10 running back in Hyde, and the enormous potential of second-year tight end, David Njoku. Playing against Oakland’s average at best secondary certainly won’t hurt Baker this week.
Ryan Tannehill
Maybe Adam Gase had a plan all along. Maybe all he needed was his quarterback. Ryan Tannehill has quietly put up the 13th most PPR points so far this year with a hodgepodge receiving corps consisting of Albert Wilson, Kenny Stills, and Jakeem Grant. After being shelved for two seasons with multiple lower-body injuries, Tannehill looks to have picked up right where he left off. A “konami code” QB with sneaky rushing upside (25RuYd/g), Tannehill will be a useful start against the Patriots’ bottom-third pass defense.
Sit These Quarterbacks
Andrew Luck
I have concerns about Andrew Luck both for the short and long term. So far Luck is only the 22nd ranked PPR passer this season. The fault isn’t all Luck’s though. His offensive line has been a bottom-third unit in terms of hits surrendered and his pass catchers are nothing to write home about. Still, Luck’s removal from this past weekend’s Hail Mary play and his 5.2 yd a-DOT over 3 games (down from an average of approximately 9 yds over his career) have me wondering if Luck’s throwing power is where it used to be. We would have never included him in a start or sit column before these arm issues.
I am aware that this can all be effectively explained away by reasoning that Luck is simply working off the rust of a two-year stint on the sideline but this week’s matchup against J.J. Watt and co. won’t do him any favors.
Josh Rosen
Unlike Baker Mayfield, co-rookie signal caller, Josh Rosen, finds himself in a much more dicey team situation and should be nowhere near your starting lineup in his first NFL start. Head Coach Steve Wilks and Offensive Coordinator Mike McCoy can’t seem to put together a productive offensive game plan and continue to misuse both Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson. They have also made questionable decision after questionable decision, most recently getting their rookie QB shell-shocked by putting him in a pressure situation against an angry Bears defense this past Sunday. Making matters worse, his offensive line has already surrendered 20 hits in three games and he will face the seventh-ranked passing defense in football. Rosen is a hard sit for Week 4.
Carson Wentz
The Philadelphia Eagles will take on a capable (8th ranked) Tennessee Titans pass defense this week. They will again be absent a number of key offensive contributors. Mike Wallace is on IR, Alshon Jefferey isn’t expected to play again, and Jay Ajayi will be dealing with a back injury when he suits up this Sunday. Until Wentz gets some of his main targets back one can reasonably expect diminished output from the star QB as he continues to work his way back into game shape.
Start These Running Backs
Carlos Hyde
A rising tide raises all ships. Baker Mayfield is that rising tide for this Cleveland offense and getting the Browns to the red zone will largely benefit Carlos Hyde. Hyde has been a steady contributor so far this season and has ranked 10th through three weeks. He also is not lacking for usage. Over the last three weeks, Hyde has averaged 20 carries per game and has scored in each contest. He’s an excellent start against the Oakland Raiders this Sunday.
Matt Breida
If there is a player in the San Francisco offense that actually stands to benefit from Jimmy G’s season-ender, it is Matt Breida. Why? Because C.J. Beathard is a QB that heavily targets players running routes close to the line of scrimmage. For this reason, Breida and Kyle Juszczyk can expect to see boosts to their productivity for the remainder of the season. Negative game scripts, like the one they are likely to see this week against the high-powered Chargers offense, will further increase Breida’s pass-catching opportunities.
Phillip Lindsay
After getting ejected for a questionable “punch” in last week’s contest, Lindsay will return this week to a Broncos offense that will most certainly need him. Playing at home against the offensive juggernaut that is the Kansas City Chiefs, one can certainly expect a lot of passing down work from both Lindsay and Booker in this contest. As the Broncos are extremely likely to be playing catch-up for a large portion of this game, against a bad defense no less, expect points from QB Case Keenum and a lot of work for #30.
Sit These Running Backs
Marshawn Lynch
Beastmode was one of my touts in last week’s start or sit column, and he hit to full effect. I hope you all took that prime opportunity to start him and reaped the rewards of a strong game. The situation will look quite different for Lynch and the rest of that offense this week, however. The Cleveland Browns boast a top third defense and the Raiders have struggled to consistently perform offensively. If the Browns score early and often, which I expect, Jalen Richard and not Marshawn Lynch will be the back with the most snaps in this one.
Chris Carson
I get it. I understand Carson went off last week and rushed for over 100 yards and a TD. I know. I would like to point out that in order to get to that level of production Carson required 34 touches. That workload isn’t something that can reasonably be expected on a week by week basis and much less so against the Arizona Cardinals rush defense that ranks sixth in the league. Expect this to be a low scoring affair with a bomb or two to Tyler Lockett providing most of the scoring. Red zone opportunities will be at a premium in this one.
James Conner
I’m sure to get some hate for this one but you can’t force me to play James Conner this week. Why? Because I don’t think the Pittsburgh Steelers defense will allow him to be used to his fullest potential. The Baltimore Ravens have a competent offense this year and QB Joe Flacco has posted an average of 296 passing yards per game. The Steelers have seen nothing but shootouts so far this season and I expect this is a trend that will continue. Conner also surprisingly split come carries and targets last week with some of Pittsburgh’s other backs, an alarming sign considering Pittsburgh’s recent history of RB1 usage. Pump the brakes on the talented James Conner this week.
Start These Wide Receivers
Its Saturday, I understand we all saw the game last night and already know this, but just in case you’ve missed all of my start or sit columns this year, START. COOPER. KUPP. EVERY. WEEK.
This has been a public service announcement. Let’s continue…
Tyler Lockett
I sat Tyler Lockett last week for the more consistent target share I felt Quincy Enunwa would provide. Nothing against Enunwa, as he is also a quality PPR start, but never again. Much like Kupp, Lockett is solidifying every-week starter status. Entrenched in the number one role vacated by the injured Doug Baldwin for the first three weeks, Lockett did nothing but produce 70 yards and a TD per game on an average of just 5.3 targets per contest. He’s a lighting rod burner type of receiver on every play and that perfectly meshes with Wilson’s style. With Baldwin set to return to the lineup this week, I’m unconcerned with the effect this will have on Lockett because he shouldn’t see any fewer targets than he has thus far. The Cardinals defense the Seahawks will face this week is also much stronger versus the run than the pass so far this season.
Kenny Golladay
Kenny Golladay has officially assumed the No. 2 role in the Detroit Lions offense ahead of Marvin Jones (in terms of targets). He faces a Dallas defense that, while good so far, will have communication issues on the back end due to the absence of Sean Lee this week. So far Golladay has been a relatively unassuming WR1 this year ranking 12th at his position overall in PPR leagues. Look for him to continue to raise his profile in this week’s contest.
Chris Godwin
This Buccaneers offense is officially ridiculous. It’s no wonder why. In terms of targets, Ryan Fitzpatrick might have the most talented group in the league when you add in Mike Evans, OJ Howard, Cameron Brate, and DeSean Jackson to Chris Godwin. It’s simply impossible to cover all of these guys at once and we saw the result against the Steelers last week. Godwin received red-zone target after red-zone target in that game due to the coverage being more focused on the other dangerous receivers playing in Tampa. Every time Godwin has received an opportunity he’s produced. That won’t change against a Chicago Bears defense whose strength is stopping the run.
Sit These Wide Receivers
TY Hilton
Andrew Luck is struggling to win games with the depleted roster he’s been forced to work with off a two-year stay on the sidelines. The reason I downgrade the only legitimate receiver in that Colts offense this week is because of the Houston Texans ridiculous pass rush. So far this year, the Colts have surrendered a bottom third 22 quarterback hits. I don’t believe Luck will have the time to get the ball downfield to TY in this one, and that’s assuming he still has the arm strength to do so.
Quincy Enunwa
Any receiver playing the Jacksonville Jaguars is in for a rough day and Enunwa is no different. That said, of all Jets receivers he is probably in the best position to succeed because he’ll be primarily in the slot and away from lockdown corners Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. Still, the combination of a rookie quarterback and not much talent around Enunwa will lead to a game where this PPR stud will be rendered unusable in fantasy.
Larry Fitzgerald
Josh Rosen will start this week for the Arizona Cardinals, and while that could be seen as an upgrade over the struggling Sam Bradford, I don’t see the turnaround coming this week. For all the negative banter directed toward the Seattle Seahawks defense for losing veterans like Richard Sherman and Michael Bennett in the offseason, their pass defense is still a top-10 unit in the league. For all his faults, it has been shown that Seahawks Head Coach Pete Carroll is as much as responsible for the performance of his DBs as his former Defensive Coordinator, Kris Richard. Expect a lot of David Johnson this week to ease Rosen into the starting role.
Start These Tight Ends
David Njoku
The Baker Effect. See above. Also, he received seven targets in the first two contests and Cleveland has run 3-wide sets at a rate of only 51 percent so far this year (the fourth lowest rate in the league). They are giving their tight ends a ton of snaps and Njoku is getting the playing time to facilitate a breakout. More accurate throws from Mayfield will only help his development. He faces a plus matchup against Oakland on Sunday.
Tyler Eifert
Tyler Eifert’s snaps have been managed this season as a way for the coaching staff to try and preserve the health of their star tight end. Eifert has seen a steady increase in targets in each game, however. Last week Eifert burned Carolina for six catches for 74 yards. This performance is especially notable because of the presence of LB Luke Kuechly on the other side of the line. If Eifert can continue to produce against excellent cover LBs like Kuechly this season, he’ll quickly regain the elite level status he held in 2015.
Eric Ebron
Ebron was the inexpensive chalk in DFS last week because of the absence of Jack Doyle and not much has changed. Fantasy gamers cringed at yet another costly Ebron drop in the endzone, but he did still put on a display that provided starter level production from the TE spot. Fire him up again this week as he is still set to be heavily involved in this offense with Doyle out. He commanded 11 targets against the Eagles in week 3.
Sit These Tight Ends
Will Dissly
The Seattle offense as a whole is a somewhat unimaginative one. Because of that, a lot rests on Russell Wilson’s shoulders when it comes to creating extra time for scramble drill throws. Doug Baldwin returns this week and will be sure to command targets as will the so far ever-present Tyler Lockett. In an offense willing to run Chris Carson 32 times last week it is hard to see where the targets come from to feel comfortable starting Will Dissly.
Jared Cook
We’ve learned this lesson before. Never overreact to a big game from Jared Cook. Just don’t do it. It will always inevitably leave you in tears. Cook is a solid football player and one of the most athletically gifted tight ends in the league, but consistency is not his strong suit. Like teammate Amari Cooper, the highs and lows of a Jared Cook season have as much to do with Derek Carr as they do himself. Cook faces a stiff defense from Cleveland this week.
Dallas Goedert
Last week was a good one for Goedert as he snagged every one of his seven targets from Carson Wentz for 73 yards and a score. He is a solid player and probably the best rookie tight in the league, but consistent production early from a rookie at the TE spot is extremely rare. In the first two games this season, Goedert was only targeted three times and all three of those targets came in game one. He will continue to benefit from the absence of healthy receivers in Philly keep things in perspective. Ertz is still the guy you want and Wentz will still need to shake off some rust.
Start These Defenses
SEA@ARZ
CLE@OAK
NYJ@JAX
Sit These Defenses
KC@DEN
DET@DAL
BAL@PIT
Agree with my Week 4 Start or Sit? Think I’m nuts? Let me know on Twitter @FF_Wonderkid. Thanks for reading.
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