Last year I started to research what was better for your fantasy team; pitchers who can give you elite per inning numbers or those reliable pitchers who wouldn’t pitch as well but would give you a lot more innings. What I found in my research was that the elite per inning pitchers were better in Roto leagues. What I mean by elite per inning, is when these pitchers pitch, you are going to get ace-like numbers. My prime example for this is Rich Hill, who will always gives you a strikeout per inning, a great WHIP and an ERA well below league average. The inning eaters, who would be a pitcher like Jon Lester, who is not giving you ace numbers, but is giving you volume and would rank higher in points. However, I have given a lot of thought to this strategy and done a ton more research on it this year.
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The Top 25 Starting Pitchers of 2018
First, let’s take a look at what numbers the best of the best put up in 2018. I took the Top 25 starting pitchers from a standard 5×5 Roto league and lumped their numbers together. What I found was that they combined for a 2.99 ERA, a 3.15 FIP, 3.33 xFIP, and a 1.07 WHIP. On average they pitched 193.59 innings and had 15.16 wins. Oh, and there were plenty of strikeouts. The Top 25 pitchers averaged a 27.8 percent K rate, a 21.36 percent K-BB rate, and had a 10.06 K/9. Lastly, their average hard-hit rate was 32.75 percent.
For specifics, the fewest wins were deGrom with 10, but 11 of the Top 25 had fewer than 15 wins. The lowest strikeout rate was Miles Mikolas (18.1%, 6.55 K/9). However, only two of them had a strikeout rate below 25 percent (Mikolas and Kyle Hendricks), while 17 were higher than 25 percent. Nine of them had a strikeout rate over 30 percent.
There were a lot of very talented pitchers in the Top 25, but most had something in common. They were great per inning and were able to rack up innings. In fact, only two of those 25 threw fewer than 175 innings. They were Chris Sale and James Paxton. Basically, you would have to be an absolute elite pitcher to make up for the lack of innings. What about those pitchers who have the elite results, but simply haven’t amassed the innings?
The Elite Per Inning
There are pitchers who have already shown the ability to be elite per inning pitchers, but simply cannot stay healthy. Think of Eduardo Rodriguez, Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, and basically the entire Dodgers rotation. Those are the already elite per inning pitchers that are valuable to this plan. Then there are also the pitchers who have the qualities of an elite per inning pitcher. Whether it be Jon Gray, who has the strikeout ability, and the ERA metrics say should improve, or Alex Wood, who just a season ago was an absolutely elite per inning pitcher, or Joe Musgrove, who showed a lot of gains in the second half. They are elite per inning candidates. I grouped those pitchers together to see what their collective numbers would look like.
This group of 26 pitchers averaged 25.77 starts, 143.92 innings with 9.8 wins, 7.7 loses and a 3.80 ERA. That gives you an average of 5.6 innings per start, so just on the precipice of that quality start range. Collectively they had a 1.20 WHIP, league average for starting pitchers was 1.29. They also combined for a 3.64 FIP and 3.60 xFIP, meaning that they pitched below their collective ERA. Lastly, they got a ton of strikeouts. Together they averaged 9.39 K/9 and had a 25.1 percent strikeout rate.
Those numbers are not equal to the Top 25 starting pitchers, but how do they hold up to the rest of the league? Of these 26 pitchers, 18 of them had a K/9 of 9.0 or higher, while eight had one higher than 10.0. Only three (Alex Wood, Joe Musgrove, Marco Gonzales) had a K/9 below 8.0. However, there are reasons to believe that the first two can easily climb not only over 8.0, but even close to a strikeout per inning. While missing bats is the most important skill for a pitcher, there are other crucial stats in judging a pitcher and these pitchers excel in those as well. First, 21 of the 26 had an ERA below the starter league average of 4.19. They also all had a FIP below the starter league average of 4.21 and the same with the xFIP at 4.16. There were 24 who had a FIP and xFIP below four. Lastly, 20 of the 26 had a WHIP below the starter league average of 1.29.
Now that you have the information on the group of league average starters, let’s take a look at a group of volume pitchers and compare.
The Volume Pitchers
The volume pitchers are a group of starting pitchers who topped 160 innings (although 16 of the 17 amassed 170 innings and seven topped 180) who are not elite per inning pitchers. These are the pitchers that get intertwined with the elite per inning guys and you got to decide which route you want to go.
Of these 17 pitchers, they averaged 31.7 starts, 178.91 innings with 10.64 wins, 11.12 loses and a 4.19 ERA. They combined for a 4.40 FIP, 4.45 xFIP, and a 1.29 WHIP. They also combined for a 7.82 K/9, 20.43 strikeout percent.
On an individual level, only two of these 17 pitchers averaged over a strikeout per inning. Seven of them were over 8.0, while 10 were below that mark. Of the 17, none of these pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25 percent. In fact, seven were over 20 percent, meaning that 10 were below. None of them had a WHIP below 1.15 and only eight were below the starting pitcher average of 1.29. Three of them (Cole Hamels, Dallas Keuchel, Zack Godley) had an xFIP below four. Ten of them were over 4.40.
There are fewer pitchers than ever amassing innings. In 2018 there were only 13 pitchers that went 200 innings, 32 that went 180 innings, and 62 that went 160 innings. Because of that, you will hear about an emphasis on having a few of them on your roster to pair with those pitchers that miss time. But I want to question that. By stripping names of pitchers and making them into two groups, those who are giving you strong outings whenever they take the mound, the elite per inning pitchers as I call them, against the pitchers who can give you a bunch of innings but will not be nearly as strong. Obviously, if a pitcher can do both they will be in the Top 25 and if they can do neither they are not on the fantasy radar. This is a decision many have to make in the middle rounds. I want to test it and see if there is only one decision: maximize your roster. Let’s see how the two stack up against each other in the five Roto categories:
ERA and all the ERA factors go to the elite per inning pitchers. The strikeout ratios (K percent, K/9) also are in favor of the elite per inning pitchers, as does WHIP. Where the volume pitchers win is decisions. They edge out the per inning guys with an average of 10.64 wins to 9.80. They also averaged 11.12 losses to 7.70. That is crucial in this as well.
What to do with this Information
There has been a lot of information thrown at you, but it is vital in understanding my logic. First, I understand that this is not a perfect study. It does not factor in the ADP of the pitchers. But, the hope was to take the names off of the pitchers and just look at the two groups of pitchers that make up the middle rounds. In Roto, there is no question I will once again be rostering exclusively elite per inning pitchers. I used this strategy last season and was either first in pitching or in the Top 5 in all my leagues.
The only flaw with this strategy is you need to invest the necessary draft capital to end up with a rotation full of elite per inning pitchers. Typically I use two of my first four picks on starting pitchers. Then I will take my SP3 around round 6, and continue to add pitchers, typically never going more than two maybe three picks without another pitcher. My bench will almost exclusively be pitchers. In the later rounds, I target pitchers that can breakout and become an elite per inning pitcher. Names that come to mind include Trevor Richards, Chris Paddack, Michael Wacha, Zach Eflin, Trevor Cahill, Michael Pineda, Freddy Peralta, Nick Kingham, Mike Soroka, and Merrill Kelly.
While I have employed the same approach to how I construct my pitching staff in points leagues (two early on, etc), I would mix in the elite per inning pitchers and the reliable volume pitchers. The reason being the volume pitchers score more points. But that is total points, not on a point per game basis. While it is entirely too difficult to export fantasy points scored, the logic is simple. The elite per inning pitchers are giving you a better result whenever they step on the mound, but the only issue is the missed time forces them to finish with fewer points at the end of the season. But, who cares where a player finishes at the end of the season? The point is to score more points than your opponent every single week. Shouldn’t you be trying to maximize every roster spot you can? Well, you can do so by drafting exclusively elite per inning pitchers.
Instead of rostering a pitcher that will give you mediocre performances but will be more reliable, take the more skilled pitchers who will give you more production every time you start them. It is risky since multiple of your pitchers could be on the shelf at the same time, but it is even easier to survive in a points league, in my opinion.
First, if you have a terrible week, it will hurt you for… that one week. It will not dramatically affect your end of season production like it would in a Roto league. Additionally, points leagues traditionally start fewer pitchers than you do in Roto leagues, meaning that there will be more options on the waiver wire. Not to mention, you can stream pitchers who have two starts that week, and that added volume should help you get by for the time being.
The last reason I see for employing this strategy is the upside it brings you. You will have a lot of pitchers who have either flashed the ability to pitch like a Top 25 pitcher, but have never had the innings to finish as one, or you will have a pitcher who has demonstrated the necessary upside to reach that level. Those are the breakout candidates. Not the pitchers that are valuable simply because they stay healthy.
By the way, just because a pitcher stayed healthy in the past does not make them anywhere close to a guarantee to do so again. Given the added injury risk to all pitchers, I will continue to attempt to maximize my starting lineup and chase the skill and top-level production when healthy in both points and Roto.
Will you do the same?
Let me know on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
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