Patrick Mahomes was magical in 2018. I am not talking new QB takes over and leads his team to the playoffs, sappy movie magical. I am talking literally the greatest QB to ever step on the football field magical. At least in fantasy football terms and that cannot be debated. No quarterback has ever scored as many fantasy points as Mahomes did last year.
In fact, in NFL history only LaDainian Tomlinson (427.1) scored more fantasy points than Mahomes (417.1) scored last year in standard leagues. If you had Mahomes in 2018 there is a good chance you won a championship. However, he is going to cost a much earlier pick and go off the board as the number one QB in 2019, which means there is a lot less margin for error if he is going to win more fantasy championships. How likely is Mahomes to repeat his standout season? And what are realistic projections for him? To get an idea, I want to look back at other standout QB performances and how they faired the following season.
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In NFL history there have been six other occurrences where a QB has scored 380+ fantasy points. There were also two other occurrences when a QB has thrown 50+ touchdowns and 10 other times a QB has thrown for 5,000+ yards. Let’s take a look at how each faired the next season and the percentage they gained or lost in each category.
380+ Fantasy Point Scorers
Patrick Mahomes scored 417.1 fantasy points, which is the most ever by a QB. But there have been occurrences where others have come close. I wanted to take a look at the six times a QB has scored 380-or-more fantasy points and see how they faired the followed season.
| Player | 380+ Point Season | Following Season | Percent +/- |
| Peyton Manning | 412.0 (2013) | 312.68 (2014) | -24 percent |
| Tom Brady | 398 (2007) | 270.32 (2009)* | -32 percent |
| Aaron Rodgers | 397.4 (2011) | 343.6 (2012) | -13 percent |
| Drew Brees | 395.6 (2011) | 345.58 (2012) | -12 percent |
| Cam Newton | 389.1 (2015) | 254.26 (2016) | -34 percent |
| Aaron Rodgers | 380 (2016) | 312.58 (2018)* | -17 percent |
*Both missed significant time the following year, so I went to the next healthy season. Daunte Culpepper scored over 380 points in 2004, but never played more than seven games after that so he was left off the list.
Looking at the six names it jumps out that each of them got worse the next season. They actually got significantly worse, as the lowest decrease was Brees at -12 percent. The average difference between these six is -22 percent. If that is the case for Mahomes next year, he would score 325.33 fantasy points. In terms of 2018 standings, he would then have finished as the QB5 behind only Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Deshaun Watson, and Andrew Luck. Perhaps that is too big of a decrease. Mahomes is young and still very much in the prime of his career. Let’s say he can defy the odds and decrease by only 10 percent. That would have him scoring 375.39 fantasy points. He would have still been the QB1 then.
50+ Touchdown Tossers
As stated above, this has been done just two other times. Lets see how those two times faired the following season.
| Player | 50+ TD Season | Following Year | Percent +/- |
| Peyton Manning | 55 (2013) | 39 (2014) | -29 percent |
| Tom Brady | 50 (2007) | 28 (2009)* | -44 percent |
There were two cases of huge touchdown declines. In fact, neither Brady nor Manning threw for 40+ touchdowns since throwing for 50. The average decline was -36.5 percent. If that was to hold true for Mahomes, he would throw 32 touchdowns next year. Last year Jared Goff, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers all tied for the sixth most passing touchdowns with 32 a piece. Even if you want to give Mahomes the benefit of the doubt, since he is younger than those other two were at the time. Let’s say he has a decline of just 20 percent. That has him throwing 40 touchdowns, which still would have led the league in 2018.
5,000+ Yard Throwers
There have been 10 other occurrences of QBs throwing for 5,000+ passing yards in an NFL season. We can look at nine of them since one other was Ben Roethlisberger in 2018 and we do not have the following season to base it off of.
| Player | 5,000 Yard Season | Following Year | Percent +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 5,477 (2013) | 4,727 (2014) | -13 percent |
| Drew Brees | 5,476 (2011) | 5,177 (2012) | -5 percent |
| Tom Brady | 5,235 (2011) | 4,827 (2012) | – 7 percent |
| Drew Brees | 5,208 (2016) | 4,334 (2017) | -16 percent |
| Drew Brees | 5,177 (2012) | 5,162 (2013) | -0.2 percent |
| Drew Brees | 5,162 (2013) | 4,952 (2014) | -4 percent |
| Dan Marino | 5,084 (1984) | 4,137 (1985) | -18 percent |
| Drew Brees | 5,069 (2008) | 4,338 (2009) | -14 percent |
| Matt Stafford | 5,038 (2011) | 4,967 (2012) | -1 percent |
As you can see, passing yards has been the stat with the lowest percentage change. While no one grew on their passing yards the following season, there are multiple cases of just a very slight decrease. The average change was -8.7 percent. If that holds true for Mahomes he would throw 4,638.3 passing yards this season. There were only four QBs not named Mahomes that threw that amount in 2018. Let’s say we give him the benefit of the doubt and say he decreases by only five percent. He would then finish with 4,842.15 passing yards, which was topped by just two other QBs in 2018.
To recap, if Mahomes is on the average trajectory of QBs who have had similar seasons he would finish with 325.33 fantasy points, 32 passing touchdowns, and 4,638 passing yards. On a 2018 scale, that means he would finish with the fifth-most fantasy points among QBs, tied for the fifth most passing TDs and the fourth most passing yards.
For those of you who think this is being too harsh and that the young Mahomes in that Andy Reid offense will not decline as much as others, I gave him the benefit of the doubt in declining in most phases. Those numbers look like this: 375.39 fantasy points, 40 passing touchdowns, and 4,842 passing yards. That would have him scoring the most fantasy points among QBs, leading the league in passing touchdowns and throwing the third most yards, based on 2018 numbers.
The Fall of Patrick Mahomes?
Mahomes is going to decline in 2019. He had literally the best fantasy season a QB has ever had in the history of the NFL. To expect him to duplicate or even build on that is simply expecting too much. If by some far chance he does, then that is great for those who took the chance on him. But history has shown that literally any time a QB has scored 380+ fantasy points, thrown for 5,000 yards or 50 touchdowns they have declined the following year.
How you value Mahomes coming into this season all depends on which camp you are in. If you read this and want to go with the average historical decline, then you are in the first group of numbers listed above. In that case, he would not be worthy of selecting as the first QB off the board. Not only would there be no advantage, but he would not even finish as the QB1 in this scenario. However, if you were reading it and thinking I was being too harsh on Mahomes, then you would be more in the benefit of the doubt grouping of numbers, in which case, yes, Mahomes is still the QB1 in fantasy, but the advantage is significantly less.
However, there is a difference in him being valued as the Top QB and wanting to be the one that drafts him. He is going to cost a second or third round pick in many fantasy drafts. To me, the risk of him suffering even an average decline is simply too scary to invest that early of a pick. If you are in the benefit of the doubt camp, just know that the advantage is significantly smaller. In fact, if we project Mahomes for 375 fantasy points then he was just 22 points ahead of the second highest scoring QB in 2018. The margin for error shrinks dramatically, yet the cost of investment remains sky high. To me, Mahomes’ ability to give you a positive return on investment (basically being the top QB by a wide margin) is too small to invest an early round pick on.
I am typically a wait on QB fantasy drafter and with the position deeper than ever, I don’t think this is the season to change. It was fun if you had Mahomes in 2018, but I would not advise paying an early round pick on him in 2019! I know I won’t be drafting him (except for maybeee one team to get some exposure!).
If you have any questions make sure to follow me on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
Michael Florio is the winner of the 2018 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year and was a finalist for the 2017 Fantasy Football Writer of the Year. He has hosted video/radio shows, written for a number of print and web publications including the AP, NY Daily News and much more!
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