Most of us Fantasy analysts make our predictions and forecasts with a lot of confidence. But we also realize that Fantasy Football is a season-long theater of unpredictability. All players have statistical ceilings and floors. Here is what could happen this season at the Fantasy Football RB position if certain players reach their ceilings or tumble to their floors.
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In Best and Worst Case Scenarios, these Fantasy RB Results are Possible
- James Conner could be a Top 3 Fantasy RB: Conner missed three games last season and still finished as Fantasy RB6 in PPR leagues last year. With Antonio Brown gone, and Conner already showing his high dependability and versatility, he could become the pure crux of the Pittsburgh offense in 2019.
- Todd Gurley may not be an RB1: This is for obvious reasons, as the Rams re-signed Malcolm Brown, drafted a notable rookie (Darrell Henderson), and still like another rookie from last year, John Kelly. Los Angeles has built quality depth in its backfield behind Gurley. They have also openly stated he could see his reps cut back and he may be on the field with other RBs. Gurley finished as RB3 in PPR leagues, but a very dramatic fall could be ahead in 2019. Gurley should not be an anchor of your squad with a Top 12 pick.
- Damien Williams could end up in a timeshare: Williams was great down the stretch and in the postseason for the Chiefs, but let’s not forget before last season, he was just a backup who was brought in for an occasional spark. Williams has never shown he can be a featured runner over a full season yet. He does have upside, but there is also a real danger he cannot handle being a lead back over a complete campaign. He could end up sharing carries with Carlos Hyde at some point. Williams is a volatile Fantasy RB who could end up being a Top 12 guy or tumble into flex territory.
- Josh Jacobs could be an RB1: He was the only rookie RB to be selected in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft, and Jacobs could be an instant impact player. He completes the new and improved supporting cast around Derek Carr, and will be the clear goal-line finisher for Oakland. Jacobs is not only a physical runner, but he can also make defenders miss with some deft moves. He also catches passes out of the backfield and should get a lot of reps because he can adequately block in passing situations. You may draft Jacobs as your second Fantasy RB this year, but he could end up being your most productive guy.
- Kenyan Drake may emerge as an exciting RB2: We saw real flashes of Drake’s potential in 2017, but Adam Gase just plain misused him overall. Miami does not have much to offer on offense, and Drake is easily their most dynamic player. The new regime may use him better. If Chad O’Shea wants to look smart as the new offensive coordinator, he will realize Drake can score from anywhere on the field and he is very versatile. Drake does not need to be overused either, as he can make the most of every touch.
- Tarik Cohen’s value will drop, and Mike Davis may rise in Chicago: Cohen may see decreased rushing touches this season with the free agent addition of Mike Davis and the drafting of David Montgomery. Davis may get a real chance to win the lead RB duties, and it cannot be assumed that Montgomery is just going to be handed the role. This could also become a full-blown committee situation where there is no single Fantasy Football RB you can feel comfortable about here.
- Ito Smith will be Atlanta’s best Fantasy RB: The Falcons made a wise move in drafting Smith last year. They knew they could lose Tevin Coleman after the 2018 season, and Devonta Freeman is a big health risk. Coleman is gone, and Freeman is back, but for how long? Opportunity could lead to Smith becoming a Fantasy Football RB sleeper pick that hits in 2019.
- Rashaad Penny has a second-year breakout campaign: Ideally, the Seahawks would like to have Chris Carson as an inside runner with Penny complementing him on the perimeter and in the open field. But health seems to be a frequent issue for Carson, and if Penny is handed the unquestioned RB1 reins at any time, he could bust out with an increased overall workload.
- Ronald Jones has a second-year breakout campaign: With only Peyton Barber to battle him for playing time, and a new coaching staff possibly willing to give him a fresh start, Jones could begin his career over and put a lost 2018 campaign behind him. It’s all mental for Jones. If he can learn from his mistakes, he still has a lot of pure ability that could translate into quality Fantasy RB production in 2019.
- Derrick Henry may disappoint again: Honestly, this would not be a shocker. Henry looked like a Fantasy RB superstar very late in the 2018 regular season. But we have never seen him deliver at a high level for an extended period in his career. Just do not forget about Dion Lewis in the later rounds. Like Damien Williams, Henry has a lot of lofty promise, but could also collapse into flex terriory, or maybe worse.
Check out what The King foresees at the Quarterback Position in 2019.
Scott Engel is an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s Hall of Fame and a four-time award winner. He was one of the driving content forces in the rise of RotoExperts.com and was the lead host on the RotoExperts in the Morning for six years on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. He was also instrumental in the launch of the FNTSY Sports Network. Scott was the first-ever Senior Writer and Managing Editor at CBS SportsLine and won a company Hall of Fame Award. He was also an Associate Editor and Fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He has been the featured Fantasy Writer on Seahawks.com since 2012 and his work has been syndicated to the Associated Press, NFL.com, New York Daily News, New York Post, Yahoo Sports, Bloomberg Sports, Sports Illustrated and many others. He is a credentialed media member who won an FSWA award in 2016 for his Insider Fantasy Reporting. Known as “The King”, Scott is on Twitter @scotteTheKing
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