Fantasy EPL Points Per 90: Forwards

Earlier in the week, I discussed how points per 90 (PP90) could potentially be used to unearth undervalued midfielders and highlighted the likes of Barkley and Shelvey (amongst others) as cases in point. Today I apply the same principle to Fantasy EPL Forwards. Let’s begin!

2018-19 FP/G vs. PP90

The figure below compares the points per game (FP/G) with the PP90 for all the forwards who played over 300 minutes last season. There were no un-subable players (yes, I’m continuing to use my made-up word) like with the midfielders, though Zaha goes closest to replicating his (for now) teammate Milivojevic. The Arsenal target played 99.3% of the 34 games he appeared in, and therefore ended with a discrepancy between FP/G and PP90 of just 0.07. Small discrepancies aren’t what we’re interested in though. It’s the large discrepancies that we should be taking a closer look at. And in particular, these five…

Gabriel Jesus

FP/G = 6.59; PP90 = 16.84.

I saw @tottiandor (another one to follow if you don’t already) suggest that David Silva would be the steal of the draft if one of Sterling/KDB/Bernardo/etc gets injured. Well, I see your David Silva, and raise you Gabriel Jesus if Aguero gets injured. Jesus had the biggest FP/G-PP90 discrepancy of all forwards, which is not surprising given that 21 of his 29 appearances came from the substitute’s bench. Aguero doesn’t seem to be showing any signs of slowing down (last season he actually played the most league minutes since 2014/15), but if he does, then Jesus is sure to cash in. He scored five and got two assists in the eight league games he started last season. Even without an Aguero injury, there’s plenty of reason to think that Jesus will get more game time this year. I’m not a big proponent of the handcuff strategy in fantasy EPL, but this is one situation where it could work very nicely.

Callum Hudson-Odoi

FP/G = 5.45; PP90 = 12.54.

Lampard has been making all the right noises if you’re a fan of CHO, and unlike Solskjaer and Klopp (see similar comments about Greenwood and Brewster), I get the feeling Lampard is being serious. The Chelsea forward played just 391 minutes last season, but all came after Christmas, and he started four straight games before rupturing his Achilles against Burnley. Even if he misses the first month of the season, you’d expect him to easily hit 1,000 minutes this time around, and probably much more than that. Chelsea needs to replace 26 goals, 15 assists, and eight shots per game with Hazard, Higuain, and Morata now departed. It seems reasonable to think CHO will contribute to some of that.

Christian Benteke

FP/G = 5.59; PP90 = 9.91.

Last season Benteke played 813 minutes for Palace. One-third of those came in the final three games. Finally injury-free, and with Connor Wickham and Alexander Sorloth as his only competition, Benteke owners will be expecting a 2,500-minute campaign minimum. That would translate to a 275 point season; higher than what Deulofeu, Murray, Barnes, and Lukaku scored last season. What’s more, I don’t think a Zaha departure will have a negative effect on Benteke’s value. It may even increase it. Palace will become a poorer team for sure, and probably score fewer goals, but they may also be forced to go more direct without Zaha (and Wan-Bissaka’s) driving runs and low crosses. In a scoring format that rewards aerials – like Togga – Benteke would be a big beneficiary.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin

FP/G = 5.83; PP90 = 10.34.

DCL has been going extremely low in mock drafts, likely because people are assuming that Everton will sign a forward. But let’s contemplate a crazy thought…what if they don’t? He started 10 of Everton’s last 11 games, sitting out the season finale because of an injury. In those 10 games, Everton averaged two points per game, compared to 1.2 prior to that. Whilst he was only involved in three goals during that time, he clearly adds something to Everton (most notably, a presence up front considering his 3.2 aerials won per game…11^th most amongst forwards). If Marco Silva continues to show the same level of trust, DCL could be in for a big season. He’s hovering around the 8^th round region for me.

Son Heung-Min

FP/G = 10.37; PP90 = 14.15.

In the midfielders article, I gave you KDB as the elite player that is still somehow being undervalued. For the forwards, that guy is Son. Son is a first-rounder. Period. If he’s still there in the second, then something has gone wrong. In the first half of last season, Son completed 80+ minutes just four times, whereas in the second half of the season he did so 10 times. And this is key because Son isn’t one of the players that pads his numbers in cameo appearances (he scored zero and made just two in his eight games off the bench). So if we are right in thinking that Son has finally cemented himself as a first-team regular, then those 23 starts he made can – injuries permitting – conceivably turn into 30 plus. Put simply, Son should score around 450 points this season. That’s Aubameyang/Aguero territory. I.e. first round.

Honorable Mentions…

Last year’s World Cup led to significant increases in injury rates during the subsequent season. Bad news for Salah, Mane, and Firmino, who all had international assignments during this summer too. Good news, however, for Divock Origi, who will look to capitalize on any extra playing time. He had the 14^th highest PP90 of all eligible forwards last year. Alternatively, teammate Xherdan Shaqiri could be the man Klopp turns to. His PP90 was an impressive 13.19, though he featured for just 60 minutes total in Liverpool’s final 13 league games. Olivier Giroud is in a three-way battle with Batshuayi and Abraham for the Chelsea forward position. Should he win it (and he’s possibly the favorite right now), last season’s PP90 of 12.75 would turn into a very nice season for fantasy owners. Manchester United may have signed Daniel James, but let’s be honest, the left-winger/forward role is Anthony Martial’s to lose. And if he doesn’t lose it, then a 14.60 PP90 in a 2,500 minute season (possibly a touch optimistic, but go with me) would equate to a massive 400 point season. United also have an opening on the other side of the pitch that could – dare I say it – be filled by Alexis Sanchez. The Chilean had a good Copa America, and if he were to bounce back – not even necessarily to his heyday, but at least to the point where he is a semi-regular starter – then he could prove great value in his current average draft position.

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