Fantasy ADP Risers and Fallers – Preseason’s End

The 2019 season is only a couple weeks away and the storylines have the fantasy community dreading their draft date with the lack of ADP risers. Melvin Gordon and Ezekiel Elliot continue their holdouts. Antonio Brown has both feet and helmet problems. Kyler Murray was slowed down by the Raiders. Finally, the Chargers apparently built their stadium on an ancient burial site as they continue to be hampered by injuries.

It’s placed a strain on the early rounds in drafts and forced fantasy managers to reassess their risk tolerance. The community debates talent and opportunity over the entire offseason. Touches, targets, draft capital, and athletic profile are common talking points. Injury rates have their place, but availability now takes center stage. Our third look at ADP risers features a few players that have been affected by the latest news. Their season-long outlook may be filled with caveats depending on health and contract negotiations. Either way, the market continues to adjust as more information comes out.

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Quarterback ADP Risers

Joe Flacco has sat at the back end of drafts all offseason. And for good reason, too. His 6.4 AY/A and 4.2 touchdown rate were below replacement level. He finished outside of the top 20 in both categories as his former team looked to move on with their rookie quarterback. Denver’s offensive situation hasn’t significantly improved from 2018, but it appears Emmanuel Sanders is back giving the team a much-needed boost.

https://twitter.com/MainTeamSports/status/1163613806762831872

Without Superflex roster formats, Flacco is less likely to make an impact as an ADP riser. However, as the fantasy community gains confidence in the surrounding talent, Flacco’s viability as a streamer increases. Without any injuries or contract negotiations impacting the team, Denver quietly slips into the 2019 season as an underrated offense to target.

Andrew Luck enters the 2019 season the same way he entered the 2018 season. Under immense skepticism. The injury may be different, but Luck has missed multiple practices destabilizing the value of the entire offense. His calf strain was first identified in March with the team constantly adjusting their expectations on Luck’s return timetable. Week 1 is now in doubt and the fantasy community has adjusted their expectations. His ADP has dropped into the 7^th round with no certainty as to how long the Colts’ quarterback will be out of commission.

Running Back ADP Risers

The void left by Duke Johnson combined with Kareem Hunt’s suspension leaves Nick Chubb with increased opportunity in a productive offense. But while Chubb is also an ADP riser, the question of who will become the backup remains. Preseason usage may have given us an answer.

https://twitter.com/_SteveFrederick/status/1159613138720960513

This is Hilliard’s second season on the team, and he came in as a UDFA. He produced as a runner, receiver, and kick returner at Tulane, but entered a draft class loaded with running back talent. As another ADP riser, his path to touches is clear with only two rookies to compete with him for playing time. The only question is if Hilliard can maintain any sort of volume once Hunt returns to the field.

The San Francisco 49ers’ backfield began to rival New England’s, but Jerick McKinnon’s health has provided some clarity. His recent setback and PRP injection has put him firmly behind Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida according to the latest ADP data. We’ve seen ACL injuries and their lingering effect on players shortly after their return. With talk of McKinnon entering the season on the PUP, his value has dropped 13^th round of drafts.

Wide Receiver ADP Risers

NFL is reinstating Patriots’ WR Josh Gordon, league source tells ESPN.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 16, 2019

The news that most of the fantasy community was waiting to hear. N’Keal Harry had been battling injuries and struggling in camp. Julian Edelman was yet to be cleared for contact. Meanwhile, Tom Brady was working with Maurice Harris, Braxton Berrios, and Phillip Dorsett as the top options in the New England passing game. Not ideal for a team with 6-1 Super Bowl odds. Josh Gordon (along with Edelman’s return) changes that. Tom Brady has averaged more yards per attempt with Gordon (10.4) than any wide receiver in his entire career. Gordon was also used on slant routes on key first downs against the Chiefs during the playoffs. He walks in as the perfect complement to Edelman’s interior skillset and has been the largest ADP riser of the offseason.

A.J. Brown suffered a hamstring injury on the first day of training camp. While he’s spent his free time studying the playbook and taking part in team meetings, he’s been unable to participate in the drills and routines necessary for him to see consistent playing time in 2019. This is critical to a rookie wide receiver. Given the lackluster regard most have for Tennessee’s offense, Brown has continued to slip in drafts.

Tight End ADP Risers

The Panthers now have two top-tier wide receivers, an elite running back, and a healthy dual-threat quarterback. That squad alone projects as a top-tier offense, but Greg Olsen is another ADP riser that should be on everyone’s radar. Olsen’s age and previous injury have depressed his value along with the rise of other late-round options. However, the last time Olsen was healthy he was tied for the most tight end targets inside the 10-yard line. Extending that out a bit further, he was second amongst tight ends from with the 20-yard (127). His red-zone usage (and conversion to touchdowns) is what we want out of the position. While his cost has slowly crept up over the summer, Olsen remains a value target at the tight for fantasy managers that choose to wait on the position.

Knee injuries and move tight ends don’t mix well in fantasy drafts. David Njoku was reported with soreness prior to their joint practices with Indianapolis. Despite his recent return to play, it caused his cost to significantly drop due to the other available options at a similar or lesser cost (e.g. Vance McDonald, Austin Hooper). Njoku’s projected volume is stable after Duke Johnson’s trade. If his recent absence was only precautionary, then this dip should become a value investment for drafters.

Which of these ADP risers do you have your eye on? Let us know in the comments below! For more great analysis check out the 2019 Fantrax Fantasy Football Draft Kit.

Chris Allen comes from an analytical background, leveraging his data skills with his multiple years of experience across different formats (e.g. seasonal redraft, DFS, MFL10). His primary focus has been the analysis of weather effects and its impact on games, player output variance, and the validity of the associated narratives. Chris’ writings have been featured on multiple websites including Fantrax, 4for4, and, most recently, Sports Illustrated. Chris can also be heard as co-host on the Dynasty Owners Manual podcast and is a member of the FSWA.

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