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Statcast Stars (7/23-7/26)

By Chris Clegg
Giancarlo Stanton AL Lineup Analysis

Statcast technology is relatively new in the realm of baseball, being first implemented in 2015. Since then, Statcast technology has changed the way that fans watch the game, and front offices and managers make decisions. Terms like “barrels,” “exit velocity,” and “launch angle” have changed the way people think about hitting.

In 2020, MLB introduced new technology to enhance Statcast with tracking sensors from Hawk-Eye Innovations. This system features 12 cameras scattered around the park to catch every aspect of the game. Five cameras are dedicated to pitch tracking, while seven focus on player tracking and batted balls.

Each Tuesday, this article will focus on players who have been excelling in different Statcast data. I will also be providing explanations of why the stats are important to a player’s profile. Statcast is not an end-all-be-all, but it can be helpful to see how a player is performing and if that performance is sustainable.

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This week’s piece features only four days of games, but there is still plenty of Statcast data worth checking out. Let’s dive in on some data!

Statcast Hitting Trends

Giancarlo Stanton, OF, New York Yankees

Giancarlo Stanton is obliterating baseballs to begin the season. His home run on Opening Day against Max Scherzer traveled 459 feet with an exit velocity of 112.2 miles-per-hour. Fast forward to his next game on Saturday, and Stanton smoked another baseball that nearly left Nationals Park. That home run came off the bat at 121.3 miles-per-hour and traveled 483 feet. You can see the mammoth home run in the tweet below.

For reference on how hard that ball was hit, the hardest-hit ball of 2019 was 118.9 miles-per-hour. Stanton looks locked in a ready to go this season by leading the league in exit velocity through three games. He is also batting .444 with two home runs and a 1.768 OPS.

Stanton finally looks healthy for the first time in a while. He was my darkhorse pick to win MVP this year, and at this rate, it seems possible. He has always been a Statcast darling and it is on full display this season. As long as he stays healthy throughout the year, Stanton could quickly run away with the home run title and could be in the discussion for MVP.

Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox

Luis Robert looks to have made a comfortable transition to the Major Leagues. The first pitch he saw of his MLB career, he hammered to left-field at an exit velocity of 115.8 miles-per-hour. It was the highest exit velocity for any player in their first career at-bat. It is also crazy that last season, only 21 hitters had a maximum exit velocity of 115.8 miles-per-hour.

Robert is also one of only two hitters in baseball to have multiple hits that have an exit velocity over 110 miles-per-hour. The other is Giancarlo Stanton. Robert has some pretty impressive exit velocities of 115.8 and 111.4. Robert also hit his first career home run on Sunday and has a .364 batting average through his first weekend of games. If you had concerns about Robert making a smooth transition into the Major Leagues, he looks the part.

Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers

Corey Seager is a player I was looking forward to watching this 2020 season. After an incredible 2016 season, Seager was rewarded with the National League Rookie of the Year award. He looked primed to take the next step to an MVP caliber player. Unfortunately, a UCL Sprain derailed his 2018 season, and multiple injuries, including his hamstring, hip, and elbow, plagued him in 2019.

Seager has started 2020 scorching hot, looking at his Statcast data. While it is essential to take small samples in stride, it also is worth monitoring players who start hot. Seager’s average exit velocity on 15 batted ball is 96.3 miles-per-hour. Last season, Seager averaged 88.8 miles-per-hour. Seven of his 15 have been over 100 miles-per-hour, and an additional one was hit at 99.7 miles-per-hour.

Seager has also barreled four balls, three of which have turned into outs. He is hitting .313 so far, with a .494 expected batting average. In Seager’s small sample, he looks primed to continue on his strong start to 2020. Seager was forgotten about in Fantasy drafts given how deep shortstop is, but Seager will hopefully continue to reward owners who drafted him.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, San Diego Padres

Eric Hosmer has been long known as a significant groundball hitter. Over the last four seasons, Hosmer owns a 57.7% ground ball rate which has been a huge detriment to his Fantasy value. It was rumored throughout the offseason that Hosmer had begun to work on raising his launch angle, which was 1.9 degrees last season.

Through the first three games and in six batted ball events, Hosmer has a launch angle of 29.33 degrees. In addition to an elevated launch angle, five of his six batted balls have been hit at 95 miles-per-hour or higher. It is a small sample size, but it is an encouraging sign that Hosmer may have a resurgence in his age 30 season.

There is a reason the Padres signed Hosmer to an eight-year, 144 million dollar contract in 2018. The year prior, Hosmer hit .318 with 25 home runs, so the potential is there. I am sure the Padres are hopeful his changes continue throughout the season. Monitor this trend moving forward and grab Hosmer if he is available in your leagues.

https://twitter.com/HomeRunVideos/status/1287498075150454784?s=20

Statcast Pitching Trends

Like hitting, it is hard to fully buy into pitching Statcast trends this early into the season. Some things I have been monitoring early on in the season are pitch-mix and velocity changes, as well as swinging and called strike percentages. Let’s look at a few pitchers who had some noticeable differences in some different areas.

Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Miami Marlins

Sandy Alcantara is slightly underrated and partially due to pitching for the Marlins. Alcantara was one of my favorite targets in Fantasy drafts because of the value I felt like he offered later in drafts. Last season Alcantara was a workhorse, pitching 197.1 innings with a 3.88 ERA. The biggest knock on Alcantara’s value was his 18% strikeout rate.

In his first start of 2020 against the Phillies, Alcantara pitched 6.2 innings giving up only two hits, and one earned run. He also struck out seven batters. What stood out was Alcantara’s increased sinker usage. Last season, he used it 27.6 percent of the time with an average velocity of 95.3 miles-per-hour. In his lone start of 2020, Alcantara used it 43.7 percent of the time with an average velocity of 96.6 miles-per-hour.

Alcantara has a solid five-pitch mix. If he can keep using the sinker at a high rate and strike out 29 percent of hitters he faces as he did against the Phillies, he could be primed for a breakout. It is an exciting trend to monitor.

Shane Bieber, RHP, Cleveland Indians

Shane Bieber caught flack from some Fantasy analyst during the offseason for his poor hard-hit rate and exit velocity in 2019. Despite the poor hard-hit numbers last season, Bieber still pitched to a 3.28 ERA with a 30 percent strikeout rate. Many said he was due for regression, but he certainly did not look primed for regression in his Opening Day start against the Royals. Bieber pitched six shutout innings, allowing only four hits. He also struck out 14 hitters to go with his 40.2 percent called plus swinging strike percentage.

A significant change that stood out from Bieber was his increased curveball usage. Last season, Bieber used that pitch 20.5 percent of the time. In his start against the Royals, he used it 37.1 percent of the time, and boy was it good! The curve induced 13 swinging strikes and a 46.7 percent put-away rate. He struck out seven hitters on the curve alone and produced a 68.4 percent whiff rate. The curveball was dominant! If Bieber continues to pitch at this kind of level, he could be the American League CY Young winner.

Luis Castillo, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

Luis Castillo, like Shane Bieber, was a stud in 2019. Castillo pitched 190.2 innings with a 3.40 ERA and 226 strikeouts. He also features one of the best changeups in all of baseball. It is possible that pitch could be even better in 2020?

Castillo dominated in his first start against the Tigers. He pitched six innings, allowing one run and striking 11 batters. This was unsurprising from Castillo as he has had plenty of starts like this throughout his career. Something that was noticeable was a tick up in his velocity. Last season, Castillo averaged 96.4 miles-per-hour on his four-seam. In his first start, he averaged 97.3 miles-per-hour. His changeup also saw a tick up from 87.2 last season to 88.5 miles-per-hour against the Tigers. While it is not a huge difference, it could still go a long way for Castillo’s efficiency.

Be sure to check back every Tuesday for the updated Statcast report!

All data was pulled from Baseball Savant.

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