The “first half” of the 2020 MLB season has come and gone. It seems strange to be entering the final month of the season, but with just sixty games, here we are. With most teams completing thirty games, the sample sizes for players is still small. Statcast data has not stabilized, but with what we know, what can we expect moving forward?
This week’s edition of “Statcast Trends” will examine first half standouts and if their statcast data backs up their strong starts. There have been several surprising stars for Fantasy Baseball, both from the hitter and pitcher side. Which of these players are likely to continue their success? Let’s dive in!
Statcast Standouts: Hitters
Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Buffalo(Toronto) Blue Jays
The Toronto, I mean, Buffalo Blue Jays star player is not who many expected. With an ADP of 306, it is apparent that most Fantasy owners did not see this coming. Teoscar Hernandez ranks as the eighth-best player in standard 5×5 roto leagues to this point, batting .306 with 12 home runs and five stolen bases. His statcast data is sizzling red, with almost every hitting category being 95th percentile among all hitters. Hernandez strikeout rate is high at 28 percent, but that is actually down five percent from last season.
I mentioned Hernandez’s statcast data having a lot of red, which is a good thing on Baseball Savant. His exit velocity is up to 94.4 miles-per-hour, which is tied for fourth in baseball with Juan Soto. On fly balls and line drives, that number rises to 98.2 mph, which is sixth-best in baseball. The power Teoscar is showing is legitimate and backed up even more by other statcast data. Hernandez’s hard-hit rate of 58.8 percent is second-best in baseball behind Fernando Tatís, and he is top ten in barrel percentage, barrels per plate appearance, xwOBA, and xSLG. The home run power he is showing is legitimate.
The biggest surprise from Hernandez in 2020 is his batting average of .302. A career .244 hitter, including this season, his strong display in batting average has been surprising. But once again, statcast data suggest he is underperforming his expected batting average of .322. While his BABIP is a little high at .342, it is sustainable given Teoscar’s sprint speed that rates 89th percentile among hitters. His current 162 game pace of a .302 batting average with 60 home runs and 25 stolen bases is likely not sustainable, but there is a lot to like in his profile. Hernandez should continue to be a great source of power chip in a few steals. If you still somehow have the ability to acquire Teoscar cheap, I would recommend doing so.
Kyle Lewis, OF, Seattle Mariners
I recommended selling high on Kyle Lewis in an article written several weeks for dynasty leagues. I will take the loss on that, as Lewis has continued to perform at a high level. Through his first 10 games, his strikeout rate was an astonishing 40 percent and was a big reason I did not think his success could sustain. Over Lewis’s last 100 plate appearances, he is walking 17 percent of the time and striking out only 18 percent of those plate appearances. That is a HUGE improvement for a player like Lewis, who has struggled with strikeouts much of his career. A significant factor in this is his O-Swing percentage dropping from 36 percent last season to 23.9 this year.
Kyle Lewis’s statcast page may not have as much red as Hernandez’s, but there are still reasons to believe in his strong start. His expected batting average of .274 is much lower than his actual of .328, mostly thanks to an inflated BABIP. But there is reason to believe Lewis can sustain hitting .300. Over his last 100 plate appearances, Lewis has a batting average of .313 with a BABIP of .344. Given his 78th percentile sprint speed, Lewis can maintain a BABIP close to .350.
The crazy thing is, Lewis is doing this with an average exit velocity of 87.1 mph. His exit velocity on fly balls and line drives is also only 91.1 mph. Yes, there will likely be some regression, but Lewis is more than capable of hitting the ball hard, given his 103.5 mph exit velocity on his eight home runs and his max exit velocity of 110.9 mph. There is plenty of reason to buy that Kyle Lewis will continue to perform at a high level, moving forward.
Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
This standout hitter should not come as a surprise, given his prospect pedigree and his high performance in the Minor Leagues. It is more surprising that Dusty Baker has committed enough playing time for Kyle Tucker to be a standout player. Through 126 plate appearances, Tucker has a slash line of .272/.333/.488 with six home runs and four stolen bases. While most of his statcast data does not pop off the charts, it is still substantial across the board. Tucker has well above average sprint speed(73rd percentile) and a 72nd percentile hard-hit rate. The power-speed combo that Tucker has displayed is right in line with his performance throughout his career.
While Tucker’s 91.1 mph exit velocity does not stand out, his 96.7 mph exit velocity on line drives and fly balls does. Unfortunately, his ground ball rate is a career-high at 42.4 percent. If he begins to hit the ball in the air more, his power will be on full display. Baseball Savant also suggests Tucker is underperforming on his batting average, given his xBA of .280.
If you patiently waited on Tucker in dynasty leagues, it is finally paying off. If you also invested in redraft at his 188 ADP, you are reaping huge rewards. Tucker’s performance is right in line with what he has consistently done, so there is no reason to believe he will taper off over the final month. As long as the playing time is there, Tucker should be a dependable power-speed source and will likely be a top fifty pick for Fantasy drafts next season.
Statcast Standouts: Pitchers
Max Fried, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Max Fried was a popular breakout pick by many Fantasy analysts in the preseason, so some are likely unsurprised Fried is off to a strong start. He leads ALL of Major League Baseball with a 2.5 WAR according to Baseball Reference. Through 40 innings pitched, Fried has a 1.35 ERA with 38 strikeouts and a 0.95 WHIP. While not posting dominating strikeout numbers, Fried has been the fourth-best starting pitcher in standard 5×5 leagues, only behind Shane Bieber, Yu Darvish, and Lance Lynn.
Statcast data supports what Max Fried has done so far in 2020. Of pitchers that have had at least 75 batted ball events, only two pitchers have a lower average exit velocity than Fried. He has done a great job of limiting hard contact and inducing a ton of weak hits. Those numbers are a big reason why Fried has yet to allow a home run this season. Fried is also 94th percentile or better among pitchers in hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, and xSLG.
Fried is featuring his slider nearly ten percent more this season than he was in 2019. The slider is a big reason for his success as hitters have struggled to make solid contact against it. It is also a big swing and miss pitch, as it has induced a 32.5 percent whiff rate. Overall, Fried is mixing his pitches well as he features his four-seamer, slider, and curve over 20 percent of the time. Fried could see some regression, though, due to his .257 BABIP and 85 percent strand rate. Regardless, his FIP of 2.28 and his xERA of 2.37 suggest that Fried has been and will be very good moving forward.
Kenta Maeda, RHP, Minnesota Twins
When the Twins acquired Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers in February, many hoped his innings would not be manipulated like his time in Los Angeles. Maeda has been everything the Twins expected him to be and more in 2020. He is the fifth-ranked starting pitcher in standard 5×5 leagues, posting a 2.53 ERA with a 0.75 WHIP and 48 strikeouts in 42.2 innings.
Maeda does a fantastic job of inducing weak contact while limiting hard hits. A metric that I use when analyzing pitchers is hard minus soft contact percent. Maeda has a 25.7 percent hard-hit rate and a 24.8 percent soft contact rate, giving him an outstanding 0.9 percent hard minus soft rate. Pairing that batted ball data with a 30 percent strikeout rate and a 4.4 percent walk rate gives an excellent recipe for success.
Statcast data loves Maeda, which is expected given his batted ball profile. With his high strikeout rate and weak contact rate, it is not surprising to see Maeda performing well in expected stats. Among pitchers who have faced over 100 hitters this season, Maeda ranks only behind Jacob deGrom with a wOBA of .220. There is a lot of like in Maeda’s statcast profile.
Like Fried, Maeda has a low BABIP of .200 and a high strand rate of 80 percent. But given how Maeda has pitched, those numbers do not necessarily suggest regression. For the final month of the season, you can expect him to continue to perform at a high level.
Are you wondering which pitchers to stream this week? Mick Ciallela breaks down all the options you can stream this week. It is well worth your read.