Ah, the trade. Like a goal from John Arne Riise, they are often too rare for one’s liking, but spectacular when they do happen. It’s not that people are inactive, or that individuals are happy with their teams, or even that negotiations just naturally drift away unsettled. The scarcity comes down to fear. The fear of being mugged off. And I would put money on it that the same is true for most managers in most leagues.
But no more. We at Fantrax are here to help. The Inner Geek has taken the Community Special to the trade table and will analyze your league’s rosters to find the players that should be swapping hands right now. A fair, honest, and impartial third party, think of the Inner Geek as everything that Mina Raiola is not. He will do what Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen seem to be incapable of brokering a fair trade deal for all. This week our winner was No One (that’s their Twitter name, not some terrible attempt at a joke…those will likely come later). Congratulations No One – now get your league to read this and let the trading commence!
Even if your league hasn’t been chosen this week, there is guaranteed to be some useful insights for you below!
Note: Player positions are based on No One’s league, whilst PP90’s are based on the Fantrax scoring system. The article was written on Wednesday 16th December, prior to the Premier League games kicking off.
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The Categories
Kinda integral to this article is a view of all the team rosters, but before we do that, let’s breakdown how we analyse these squads. There are six types of player in Fantrax and these are outlined below. These categories are based on years of painstaking research, iteratively driven algorithms, and objective, independent evaluations, and in no way were thrown together in 20 minutes on Wednesday. With such a thorough approach, you can be sure to use this setup for your own trade negotiations. Just remember, players can and will fluctuate between the categories throughout the season (see Raheem Sterling dropping from Elite to Premium), so be sure to update your own version regularly.
The Rosters
1. BoisPlayedWell trade Olivier Giroud (12.07 PP90) to Total Voetbal – Marwin for Harry Maguire (7.68 PP90)
Top of the table Bois have actually scored fewer points than 4th placed Total, so this really is a trade between title contenders – a rare but beautiful sight. The PP90 is massively in favor of Total and this is not surprising given that this is very much a case of swapping infrequent upside (Giroud) for consistent reliability (Maguire). Nobody ever needs a defender, given the ease at which they can be streamed, but Bois could do with one. It would at least save the stress of wondering whether Cancelo is going to experience Pep Roulette, and therefore deciding which terrible defenders out of Bertrand, Clark, Konsa, and Stones should play. Maguire may not be having the best of seasons, but that’s what happens when you’re a defender for a mid-table team. What we do know, though, is that United are capable of putting a run of results together. And when that happens, Maguire is one of the best defenders to own. Stop laughing – I’m being serious! After Bruno’s arrival last season, Maguire had an FP/G of 11.7 for the rest of the season – that would have been 7th best amongst defenders in the league.
Which begs the question, why should Total let him go? Well, quite simply because he’s the 5th best of 6 defenders they own. Although specific week-to-week circumstances will dictate strategy, generally speaking, it is best to go with 3 at the back. It gives you more players at the higher-scoring positions and provides less opportunity to lose points. As mentioned, defenders can be easily streamed, so really you only need a couple of defenders (Statham’s or higher) on the roster during the week, before grabbing a 2pm-er on the weekend. Long story short, Total can not only afford to lose Maguire, but they would benefit from doing so in the form of a more balanced roster. And in return, they get a 34-year old forward who probably gets dropped for gameweek 14? Okay, when you put it like that, it still doesn’t seem a great idea. But check out who Total also own: Tammy Abraham. You have arguably the best handcuff in the league given how prolific Chelsea have been – and will continue to be – going forward this season (2nd most goals and 2nd highest XG), and it also allows you to then cash in on Patrick ‘soon-to-be-Pukki-2’ Bamford whilst his value is at an all-time high.
2. Cartel FC trade Sebastien Haller (14.80 PP90) to Cartel Killer for Timothy Castagne (13.42 PP90)
I can only guess (/hope) that there is a huge rivalry between these two similarly named teams; which makes a trade between them even tastier! Which one of them hasn’t got the balls to try and get one over on the other? I guess we’ll find out if this Haller-for-Castagne swap isn’t made. For Cartel, Haller is turning into a very nice forward option, but they don’t need him now that Benrahma has broken into the West Ham team, and potentially Benteke is back doing Benteke-like things (winning ghost points that is, not scoring goals obviously). You’d rather let the Belgian go, of course, but his value isn’t enough for any of Killer’s defenders bar Lindelof. And I’d rather spend Christmas with Boris than own Lindelof. So Haller for Castagne it is. With Castagne you are getting a very good defender for a top-half team. He had four double-digit returns in his six games before the injury, and in one of the others, he scored 9.75. He’s actually the second-best defender this season (in terms of FP/G) and could be back as early as today*.
Now, whilst this is clearly a good deal for Cartel FC – they strengthen a defense that has an overperforming Zouma, so-so Targett, and frustrating Mendy – it doesn’t, at first, seem a good deal for the Killers. They drop down to two decent defenders and now have five workable forwards. But we’ll deal with those two issues later. Let’s justify this part first. Haller seems to be well-liked at West Ham, by Moyes and the players. He is going to be given a chance, even when Antonio is back fully fit. And let’s be honest, nobody even knows when that will be anyway. Antonio’s missed 5 out of the last 6 matches, and in his two most recent starts he failed to make it past 52 minutes. Ignoring his (admittedly phenomenal) post-restart performances last season, he started just 10 of West Ham’s 27 league games. The season before that he started 22, and in 2017-18 he started 16. Chances are, the post-restart Antonio was an aberration, which makes Haller the starting forward on what is a good side**.
*This is being written on Wednesday 16th December.
**They are still being overrated though. I know, I know, it is truly shocking that the media has taken to hyperbole, particularly with a London club… (rolling eyes emoji, just in case anyone is unsure as to the sarcasm intended).
3. Gagan’s Bhaade ke Tattu trade Adama Traore (9.62 PP90) and Danny Welbeck (12.36 PP90) to Pique Blinders for James Justin (8.33 PP90) and Ferran Torres (7.34 PP90)
This one might look a little one-sided on the surface, but it’s Christmas, and Christmas is a time for giving. When you already own Grealish and Salah, why not give Traore to someone in need? Pique isn’t going to be challenging Gagan this season, so improving their team has the added benefit of making them tougher to beat for the rest of the league (yes, for Gagan too, but that’s only once every 9 gameweeks). Anyway, Traore is a Premium asset, but he’s looked a shadow of himself so far this season and went off injured yesterday – the extent of which is unknown at the time of writing. You also lose Welbeck, but his injury history is in the WAR category (Wilshere-Antonio-Rodriguez), so it’s only a matter of time before he sees the side-lines. Some would say James Justin is about to lose his place in the team now that Riccy P and Castagne are almost back. I say…yes, possibly. But…the youngster has been very good this season in real life (WhoScored have him as Leicester’s 7th best player with a 6.93 average rating) and a decent one in Fantrax. The playing time concerns are real, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he still makes the starting 11 in Fuchs current spot at left center back (his value will drop here, but he will still be useful). And Rodgers will no doubt go slow with reintroducing Pereira, particularly given the hectic schedule and then the Europa league to come. All in all, Justin should get plenty of opportunities. Now quickly, on to Torres; the kicker to even up this deal a bit. The key here is that Gagan owns Mahrez, so if the Algerian superstar is rested or gets injured, you would imagine/hope that Torres comes straight in. The Spaniard hasn’t exactly hit the ground running, but he’s still got a goal and an assist and two double-digit returns in five starts this season.
James Justin is a big loss in the short-term but Pique can cope given that their defense is undoubtedly their strongest unit. Robertson, Semedo, Lamptey, and Fofana will still be there to hold the fort; so much so that it might be worth trying to trade out another one of these to improve the dearth of talent elsewhere (hint: the midfield). But the reason you make this trade is because the risk on Adama is worth it – particularly when you are currently sitting 9th out of 10 in the league. Maybe the injury is a bad one. Maybe it’s not but he continues his plodding start to the season. Or maybe, the injury is a minor one, and Traore steps up his game a la the 2019-20 season when he had a 12.4 FP/G and a 15.8 PP90. Like I said: premium. The signs are there too. Prior to the Chelsea game yesterday, he had started four straight and scored 9, 8.5, 11.5, and 11.5 – all without scoring a goal or getting an assist. And whilst I’ve been disparaging towards Welbeck’s injury history, let’s give the man credit where credit is due. He’s started five on the bounce now and only once failed to hit higher than 11 points. And like Traore, most of these returns have been ghost points (just one goal scored). It’s a big – scrap that, huuuuge – “if”, but “if” Welbz stays fit, then he could be a tidy little option to have alongside Neto, Greenwood, and Aubameyang.
4. Cartel Killer trade Raphinha (10.19 PP90) to Sahilm for Serge Aurier (13.33 PP90)
This one might get some heat in the Twitter community. I’ve not seen as much love for one player as I have for Raphinha since Tottiandor first laid eyes on Bobby Firms. I get it though. He looks sharp and his average points per start is a healthy 11.5, again, with just the one goal to his name. But remember, after making the trade with Cartel, the Killers have a surplus of forwards and could do with a defender. They already own Doherty, so you are essentially getting the Tottenham right back slot (a combined PP90 of 12.28) for a Leeds forward with more risk and lower PP90. Aurier is a tragically undervalued Fantrax asset. Last season, the only defenders (min 10 starts) with higher PP90s were Marcos Alonso, Doherty, TAA, and Digne. With the Ivorian currently in Jose’s good books, he’s one of the best defenders to own – his only issue is game-time, but with Doherty as the handcuff, this isn’t an issue. It’s a great trade for Cartel Killer.
On the flip side, Sahilm gets rid of Aurier – a player they know at some point sooner or later, will go back to warming the bench for Spurs. And in return, they get the Fantrax Twitter community’s new favorite toy in Raphinha. Leeds are going to be fine this season* – particularly so in attack (6th best XG as of this writing) – and it looks as though Raphinha will become a key cog in the Bielsa machinery. The forward has made 8 key passes in his last 3 games and was Leeds’ primary set piece taker in their last match against West Ham. Raphinha would join a forward contingent that looks okay but far from convincing. Watkins has had a great start to his life in the Premier League but he’s still unproven and (as of this writing) has averaged just 3.25 points in his last 3 games. Diogo Jota is good but is out until February. Ivan Cavaleiro is coming off four good games, but history does not exactly look favorably on the Fulham man. And Roberto Firmino’s “meh-ness” needs no explanation. Raphinha would provide a considerable upgrade in this department.
*They are still being overrated though.
5. Wakanda FC trade Lucas Digne (12.56 PP90) to Team Kedarsd for Gabriel Jesus (8.57 PP90)
Trading a Manchester City forward (who is currently starting!) for an Everton left-back who might not play until March…oh how the mighty have fallen. In fairness, Lucas Digne is legit. Arguably the best defender in Fantrax. At worst, the second-best. But Wakanda doesn’t need him what with having Reguilon, Coufal, and Furlong on the roster (the latter two might be the defensive pickups of the season, by the way!). And not having the burden of a wasted bench spot for the next dozen gameweeks could make the difference between a win or a loss – crucial for a team that looks to be part of a jam-packed title race. They don’t really need Gabriel Jesus either, but I’m not sure a trade for a premium midfielder currently exists for them, so adding depth to the forward line should be the go. This should then help if/when Sterling gets rested and will allow McBurnie to be sat against unfavorable matchups. Jesus may not have been firing on all cylinders just yet, but you’d be a fool to count him out on contributing at some point this season. He’s certainly a nice option to have.
Spoiler alert: Team Kedarsd isn’t going to win the league. There, I said it. A 2-1-9 record is not exactly a great (or adequate) start to the season, so let’s ignore any dreams of the title. Instead, let’s play the long game, and that starts with Digne. On November 27th, Ancelotti stated that he could be out for 2-3 months. Taking a ‘glass-half-full’ approach, that could be January 27th. Which could mean a gameweek 21 return. That’s just 7 gameweeks away. It’s optimistic, I know, but it’s possible. And from then, it gives you 15 matches with a Premium player – one that averaged 12.2 points per game last season, and 13.8 the season before that. Even if this is far too hopeful, the upgrade from Jesus to Digne is considerable, and there’s a chance that Jesus isn’t even needed in this team if Cavani can step up and grab a starting spot at United.
6. NB52-TGSTEL-LN trade Jannik Vestergaard (12.40 PP90) and Ademola Lookman (11.75 PP90) to Sahilm for Wilfried Zaha (13.28 PP90)
Sahilm could be a little short on the defender front (Kyle Walker should not count unless your scoring system rewards making mistakes but being fast enough to partially rectify them) so bringing in Vestergaard will be a welcome move. Fulham’s Lookman would also be joining in order to balance the trade when Zaha goes the other way. Zaha is a Premium asset who looks back to his very best after an outlier of a season in 2019-20, but Sahilm has an embarrassment of riches in midfield, and one can be spared to improve elsewhere. Zaha seems the fairest of this bunch. Back to Vestergaard. The center-back is the 3rd highest scoring defender so far this season and is part of a good Southampton team. Even if (when) he regresses back to a more realistic level, his reliability and consistency is enough to keep him valuable – hence his Statham status. Lookman, perhaps surprisingly, is similarly consistent. Remove his -1.5 performance away at Manchester City at the Fulham forward has an FP/G of 12.56 and a PP90 of 13.59 – those numbers are above the likes of Rashford, Richarlison, and Werner.
These are also Zaha-like numbers, and there will no doubt be games where Sahilm will wish they had the Palace man back, but with KDB, Pulisic, Walcott, Barkley, and McNeil, they are pretty stacked in the midfield. NB52 needs Zaha. The defense can cope without Vestergaard and Lookman was actually being wasted as the 4th best of an excellent forward quartet. But now in midfield, NB52 can set up with two real-life “first-name on the teamsheet” players in JWP and Zaha, with the former providing an absurdly high floor (and a current purple patch of a high ceiling too for that matter), and the latter providing boom potential. Check out Zaha’s 11 appearances. Three of them have produced huge returns (31 vs Manchester United, 34 vs Fulham, and 31 vs West Brom). For sure, that means that there have been some bust games, but this is a roster filled with reliability. That boom-or-bust addition could be just what it needs to mount a proper title challenge.
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