Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few factors that can lead to consistent predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form. We have a 5 game slate for tonight. These are some of my favorite nights to play DFS. We can construct a more confined player pool, while still making multiple lineup entries, and hopefully win a tournament!
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for Feb. 4
Jazz vs. Hawks
The Jazz are a top 5 offense and a top 6 team in defense. From a net rating perspective, they are a top 3 team in the league, behind only the Bucks and Lakers, as I write this article. I watch them play, and they don’t necessarily pass the eye test of a Lakers or Clippers team, but numbers don’t lie. The Jazz are good, and we should respect them. The Hawks should be respected in their own rite. They are hovering around the top 10 in both offensive and defensive ratings. I think the deciding factor in this game will be pace, as the Hawks are 19th vs. Utah’s 25th rating. I’m going to lean Atlanta in this one. My disrespect of Utah continues.
DFS Targets: I’m expecting a close game here, so I expect the impact of the star players to be paramount. Player pool additions should include Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, and Jordan Clarkson as the bench depth scorer. For the Hawks, I like Trae Young, John Collins, and Clint Capela. Two slower-paced teams mean we’ll get more work from the big men. Don’t be afraid to mix in a little bit of Onyeka Okongwu, as I can absolutely see foul trouble coming into play.
Warriors vs. Mavericks
The Warriors are coming off a loss to the Celtics that was a lot more competitive than I was expecting. It’s possible they’re starting to turn things around with Draymond as the train conductor, and Steph as the engine. Surprisingly, they’re doing it on the defensive end, ranking 9th in the league. Their offense is 23rd. They face a Mavs team that is 18th and 20th in those categories, respectively. I like GSW in this one.
DFS Targets: I don’t think the Warriors are equipped to blow out anyone these days, so we’ll target players from both teams. GSW targets should include Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins, and Kelly Oubre. I like Luka and Kristaps Porzingis for the Mavs. I’m going to shy away from role players on both teams unless we get some injury report news closer to tip. I’ll keep you posted.
Trail Blazers vs. 76ers
The Blazers just took down my Wizards, and they almost blew it a couple of times. I think the most important takeaway is that they almost blew it a couple of times. They are working with a net rating of -1.6 (18th in the league) vs. a 76ers team that is 7th in net rating with a +4.1 mark. I expect the 76ers to win this one handily.
DFS Targets: Dame Lillard, Gary Trent Jr., and Robert Covington can keep this one from being a blowout. However, you can go ahead and put the entire 76ers starting five in your player pool. My guess is that at least 3 of the 5 will provide value well above their salary, but my crystal ball is cloudy when it comes to determining which one of the players it will be. This is why making multiple lineups is crucial in DFS. The Blazers middle of the pack pace is keeping me from Kanter.
Rockets vs. Grizzlies
Rockets and Grizzlies should be a fun, close game. Both teams are top 15 in net rating and top 10 in pace. I think the Rockets will take this one, whether John Wall is back, or not. They edge the Grizzlies in pace and net rating, and I think they are still riding high after getting an unhappy James Harden out of the locker room.
DFS Targets: The guards are a must play in a high paced game. We’re looking at John Wall, Ja Morant, Victor Oladipo, Dillon Brooks, Eric Gordon, Sterling Brown, and De’Anthony Melton, and Desmond Bane. I’ll shy away from the high priced center like Christian Wood (even though he has a high salary for a reason).
Nuggets vs. Lakers
Oh, baby….this is the one. If you love playing DFS, if you love basketball, or you love the combination of both, you need to make sure you stay up to watch this game. Two top 5 teams in net rating, which could very well be a Western Conference Finals preview. Bron vs. Joker. PUT IT STRAIGHT INTO MY VEINS!!! I think the Lakers are the better-constructed team, so I’ll give them the edge, but this could go either way.
DFS Targets: Lakers DFS targets: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Montrezl Harrell, as the slower pace could put the bigs more in play. Marc Gasol’s usage is too low for me to play him. Nuggets DFS targets: Nikola Jokic and Michael Porter Jr. are very interesting to me. I will likely put Jamal Murray in my player pool, but if he makes it into my lineups, I’ll likely be underweight, relative to the field. The matchup defensively is very tough, and I have a personal belief that no-one is matchup proof.
Don’t forget to check back later in the day as Bradlee will be updating his NBA DFS preview with all the info you need to turn tonight’s slate into a resounding success!
If you also play season-long fantasy basketball you’ll want to check out Mike Omelan’s latest Waiver Wire column for a few ideas on how to add to your squad.
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