It is time for my Week 4 Start and Sit recommendations! We are fast approaching the point in the year where stats and matchups are becoming more reliable. There are still some inconsistencies out there, and the phrase “any given Sunday” applies for a reason. These are human beings, after all. But there are always some players whose values can turn based on their game script and individual matchups. The premise of this piece is not to prop up players who are auto-starts. It is to highlight guys who are frequently on that start/sit line of your rosters. I make these recommendations with 12-team leagues and half-PPR scoring as the primary wheelhouse, so utilize these to your settings as you see fit. And as always, if you have any questions on your team, feel free to drop them below or on Twitter. There is plenty to get to as the main slate for Week 4 approaches, so let’s get right to it.
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Week 4 Start and Sit Recommendations for Fantasy Football
Quarterback to Start
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers has yet to throw for 300 yards in a game in the early stages of the 2021 season. But he proved yet again last week that he is still at the top of his game. The reigning MVP led the Packers on a last-second drive that resulted in a game-winning field goal. Rodgers has not been asked to do a whole lot through the air so far. He has attempted just 88 passes through three games. But that may change against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that will look to limit Aaron Jones and the Packers’ rushing attack. Teams rarely test Pittsburgh’s defense on the ground. Opposing running backs have handled just 66 touches against Pittsburgh so far this year. That is the sixth-lowest mark in the NFL. The 298 yards from scrimmage they have allowed to enemy backs is seventh-best in the league.
I do not expect Green Bay to completely shy away from the run in this game. But if Rodgers gets enough opportunities, he will produce. He has averaged 8.77 yards per pass attempt over the last two weeks. This matchup will likely come down to the Packers’ offensive line. Green Bay has allowed the lowest percentage of quarterback pressures (27.7 percent) and hurries (13.9 percent) in the NFL. That will be put to the test against Pittsburgh. Rodgers has struggled a bit under pressure this year. However, he had the second-highest passer rating among full-time quarterbacks when pressured last season. And he’s still Aaron Rodgers. Ultimately, I think the line will hold up long enough to allow Rodgers to make big plays down the field. The overall matchup against Pittsburgh is not ideal, but I would not shy away from starting Rodgers this week.
Quarterback to Sit
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans at New York Jets
Ryan Tannehill will be without his top two receivers this week against the New York Jets. That is a pretty good place to start when looking for a quarterback to sit. Both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are out for Week 4 with hamstring injuries. The Jets would be wise to focus even more attention than they normally would on Derrick Henry. Even then, I’m not sure it will matter. Henry is simply not like any other running back in the league. New York will certainly have their hands full with Henry, and their interior defenders outside of Folorunso Fatukasi have struggled so far this season. Henry has handled 72 touches over the last two weeks, and I would not be surprised to see him have another 30-plus touch game.
The Jets have not been able to generate much of anything from an offensive standpoint through three weeks. That will also contribute to what should be a low-stress workload for Tannehill. New York has mustered just three points in the first half of their three losses. If the Jets get off to another slow start, Tannehill will have no reason to throw the football. I expect Tannehill to have a similar performance to the one Teddy Bridgewater put up against the Jets last week. Bridgewater was efficient, completing 76 percent of his throws and averaging 9.4 yards per attempt. But he failed to throw a touchdown and finished as the overall QB26 on the week. Tannehill might fare a little bit better than that, but I do not think he comes close to sniffing the top-12 in a matchup Tennessee should control.
Also check out our Week 4 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | PPR | Flex
Running Backs to Start
Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots
Leonard Fournette has totaled just 92 rushing yards through three games. So why would I start him in Week 4? Admittedly, my rationale is a bit narrative-based, so bear with me. Sunday night will be Tom Brady’s triumphant return to Foxboro. Many expect him to exact revenge on his former squad and put up huge passing numbers. I will not completely dismiss that possibility. However, I don’t think Brady is going out there with the mindset of running up the score and embarrassing the Patriots. He exacted his revenge when he was tossing the Lombardi Trophy off a boat while wearing a t-shirt and shorts in the middle of February. A win on Sunday night will suit Brady just fine, and he should be able to accomplish that goal without throwing the ball all over Gillette Stadium.
Bill Belichick has much more to lose on Sunday than Brady does. Brady has already one-upped his former mentor with last year’s Super Bowl victory. If Brady were to dismantle Belichick’s defense on Sunday, people may start to question the coach’s credentials. Whether that is fair or not is a different story. In any event, I believe Belichick will do everything in his evil genius powers to ensure that Brady and the Bucs do not enjoy a big day through the air. The Patriots have lined up with seven or eight defenders in the box on over 75 percent of their opponent’s running plays this year. I expect New England to reverse course on that strategy and employ some soft fronts to entice the Buccaneers to check to run plays. If I am correct in this assessment, this could lead to a big day for Leonard Fournette.
Since the beginning of 2020, opponents have averaged 6.06 yards per rush when New England has utilized a four or five-man box. The sample size is small (33 rushes), so I do not expect the Patriots to exclusively show light boxes. They will look to mix it up and confuse Brady a bit. But I do believe Belichick would prefer death by a thousand paper cuts as opposed to Brady lighting up the scoreboard with his arm. Fournette also figures to benefit from the absence of backfield mate Giovani Bernard. Bernard had 10 targets last week but will miss this game with a sprained MCL. Fournette is averaging four receptions per game as it is, so his Week 4 role should be pretty secure. I think Fournette has a good chance to surpass 20 touches and 100 total yards in this matchup.
Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons v. Washington Football Team
I could probably list Cordarrelle Patterson here every single week. He continues to be undervalued, but it is time to put some respect on his name. Patterson leads the Atlanta Falcons in yards from scrimmage through three games. You read that right. Calvin Ridley does not lead the team, nor does Mike Davis, even though the latter has 16 more touches than Patterson does. The 30-year old Patterson has eclipsed 60 yards from scrimmage in each of Atlanta’s three games in 2021. That gives him a relatively safe floor, especially in PPR leagues. His 13 receptions are tied for seventh-best in the NFL among running backs.
The “among running backs” is a bit of a caveat in Patterson’s case. If you recall, I touted Patterson last week as well but did so at wide receiver. Patterson is a bit of an anomaly in that he can play both positions. I do not think Patterson will replace Shohei Ohtani in our lexicon anytime soon, but his versatility has created a bit of an issue. Patterson was initially listed as a wide receiver on several sites. Some sites have made the switch to listing Patterson as a running back, including DFS sites. Fantrax has given Patterson “RB, WR” designation, which is a major plus for his managers. I would personally rather use him as a wide receiver as long as I have running backs who are guaranteed bigger workloads. But whatever slot Patterson fills in your lineup, he is likely to continue to put up solid numbers.
Running Back to Sit
Damien Harris, New England Patriots v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There is a worrisome trend developing when it comes to the rushing production of Damien Harris. Harris ran for 100 yards in the season opener against Miami. His 23rd and final carry in that game was a lost fumble that likely cost New England the win. Harris led the charge in the Patriots’ Week 2 victory against the New York Jets, including a powerful 26-yard touchdown run that salvaged his fantasy day. His other 16 touches resulted in just 38 yards. Last week, Harris touched the ball just eight times, netting 11 yards. I think his role as the leader of New England’s backfield is secure. However, last week was a warning that Harris can essentially be game-scripted out of ballgames if teams can get out in front of the Patriots.
If New England is forced to play from behind on Sunday night, Harris will not get a ton of work. Harris offers next to nothing in the passing game. He has yet to put up even 20 receiving yards in any of his 15 NFL games. Even if Harris were to get a significant amount of touches, this is not the matchup you want to aggressively attack. The Bucs have allowed just 1.03 yards per carry before contact, the third-best mark in the league. Their 3.25 yards per carry surrendered is also among the league leaders. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles will not let Harris beat him in this game. He will dare rookie quarterback Mac Jones to do so instead. Start Damien Harris at your peril this week.
Wide Receivers to Start
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins v. Indianapolis Colts
I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a receiver catch 12 passes in an NFL game without a single one of them going for at least 10 yards. So kudos to Jaylen Waddle for pulling off that seemingly impossible feat in just his third game as a pro. The rookie managed just 58 yards on a dozen grabs in last week’s loss in Las Vegas. He even caught a pass behind the line of scrimmage that resulted in a safety for the Raiders. As odd as Waddle’s Week 3 line looks, it still equated to a top-30 weekly finish in half-PPR leagues. When aDOT becomes a fantasy category, Waddle could have problems. Until then, enjoy the relatively safe throws and easy catches courtesy of fill-in quarterback Jacoby Brissett.
Of course, Waddle also has the physical tools to turn nothing into something on any given play. His expected individual Week 4 matchup is not one to fear against the Colts and slot corner Kenny Moore. Of 91 qualified cornerbacks, Moore ranks 89th in Pro Football Focus’ coverage metric so far this season. He has allowed a 79 percent catch rate in his coverage. Waddle should continue to absorb a fair amount of targets in this game. That will allow him to put up big numbers in PPR and half-PPR leagues. He can also use his 4.32 speed to make that one big play that could result in a top-12 fantasy finish.
Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Hunter Renfrow enters Week 4 inside the top-40 among wide receivers in receptions, targets, and receiving yards. He has managed at least five receptions and 50 yards in each game. The Raiders have thrown the ball a lot more than we are accustomed to seeing. That is partly due to playing a pair of overtimes games. Whatever the case may be, their more aggressive offensive philosophy may continue Monday night when the Raiders face the Chargers in an expected shootout. The game features one of the highest implied totals on this week’s slate, with the Raiders being a slight underdog. Derek Carr has gotten off to a hot start and was recently named the AFC Offensive Player of the Month. If Carr continues to get the green light, Renfrow should put up another solid effort from a volume standpoint.
Renfrow’s likely individual matchup is admittedly not the best. Tevaughn Campbell has done a solid job as the Chargers’ primary slot cornerback. The 28-year old former undrafted free agent ranks seventh in PFF’s coverage metric. I do not think Renfrow has the kind of ceiling this week that Waddle does. However, his floor should be higher than most wide receivers in his range given the circumstances. I don’t know if I can quite get on board with Renfrow being a WR3 in 12-team leagues this week, but he should be a solid Flex option in PPR leagues, especially for teams who are experiencing some injury woes at the wide receiver position.
Wide Receivers to Sit
Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals v. Los Angeles Rams
My recommendation to sit Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore is a bit worrisome if I am being honest. One or both of Arizona’s young wideouts could put up big numbers and make me look silly. Unlike the rest of my recommendations, which are guaranteed. Kirk and Moore have mostly manned the slot for Arizona. Under normal circumstances, that would be a good thing, and it mostly has been for the duo. However, Jalen Ramsey has been the Rams’ main slot cornerback so far this year. I cannot say for certain that will continue. The Rams may use Ramsey to shadow DeAndre Hopkins instead. But any routes run in Ramsey’s coverage are likely to lower the production of Kirk and Moore.
The rest of the Rams’ cornerbacks are not exactly chopped liver in their own right. Darious Williams and David Long Jr. have been solid in coverage, so it is not as if Kirk and/or Moore would receive much of a reprieve if matched up against either of them. With Arizona having a surplus of mouths to feed in the passing game, I find it hard to recommend anyone outside of Hopkins in difficult matchups such as this one. I would prefer Kirk over Moore if I had to choose, as the rookie’s production has been all over the place, whereas Kirk has been fairly consistent over three games. But I also think it’s just as likely that A.J. Green puts up a better fantasy performance than either Kirk or Moore this week.
Tight End to Start
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills v. Houston Texans
Dawson Knox has tallied a touchdown in back-to-back games as Buffalo’s offense seems to have regained its 2020 mojo. Sometimes, we need to take matchups into context when looking solely at what defenses do against certain positions. For example, the Baltimore Ravens have given up the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends so far in 2021. But when you consider their year-to-date opponents (Las Vegas, Kansas City, and Detroit), their struggles can be forgiven. That is not exactly the case with the Houston Texans, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. No individual tight end who has faced Houston ranks in the top-15 in fantasy production. The Texans simply do not have the personnel to limit tight end production, which should benefit Knox this week.
Knox has run 90 routes through three games. That puts him in the top-10 among tight ends in that statistic. Generally speaking, more routes are good, especially considering that Houston has struggled in that area. The Texans have allowed an 80.8 percent catch rate and nearly nine yards per target to opposing tight ends this year. Both numbers are on the high end of numbers allowed. Knox will never get the target share that the elite tight ends around the league will. He has yet to clear five targets or 50 yards in a single game this year. That puts him in the TE2 range in most weeks. But he has a solid role in one of the league’s most prolific offenses, and can easily find the end zone in favorable matchups like this one.
Tight Ends to Sit
I’ll spare you a ton of analysis, but my first recommendation for a tight end to sit this week would be Rob Gronkowski. Tampa Bay listed him as doubtful for Week 4 on their latest injury report. With the game taking place on Sunday night, it is far too risky to have to rely on a late swap if Gronkowski does indeed miss this contest. I would try to grab a tight end off the wire if necessary rather than rely on Gronkowski given his health. Dawson Knox is only rostered in 50 percent of Fantrax leagues for what it’s worth.
Tyler Conklin, Minnesota Vikings v. Cleveland Browns
Tyler Conklin had a huge day in last week’s victory against the Seattle Seahawks. The fourth-year tight end set new personal single-game bests with seven receptions and 70 yards. He also caught his second career touchdown pass. It was confirmation for many who considered Conklin a viable sleeper this year. Conklin will look to build on last week’s breakout performance when the Vikings host the Cleveland Browns in Week 4. I am less optimistic than most seem to be about his likelihood to do so. I do not love the matchup, and I also have concerns about how Conklin may be used in this contest.
The Cleveland Browns have allowed just 107 receiving yards versus tight ends so far in 2021. That is the eighth-lowest figure in the league and is even more impressive considering they have faced the Kansas City Chiefs. Chiefs tight ends totaled 79 yards against Cleveland in Week 1, 76 of which went to Travis Kelce. Since then, Cleveland has held Jordan Akins to 17 yards and Cole Kmet to 11. Call me crazy, but I would put Conklin a lot closer to the Akins/Kmet side of the talent pool than the Travis Kelce side. Conklin will also likely have to deal with linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah in coverage. He is PFF’s number-one graded linebacker through three weeks. Opposing tight ends have caught just four of seven targets with Owusu-Koramoah as the primary defender.
I also feel that Minnesota may keep Conklin in to block more than normal in this game. The Browns ran roughshod over Chicago’s offensive line last week en route to nine sacks of quarterback Justin Fields. Cleveland had a field day (no pun intended) against the Bears. Minnesota cannot have Kirk Cousins running for his life like Fields was last week. Chris Herndon and Ben Ellefson have been used sparingly to this point in the season. The pair has combined for just six pass-blocking snaps through three weeks. I doubt either will be thrust into a situation where they will have to contain Myles Garrett, Jadaveon Clowney, and the rest of Cleveland’s pass-rushing group. Conklin will likely have fewer opportunities than normal to produce in what is already a difficult matchup.
More fantasy football fun for Week 4: Waiver Wire | FAAB Guide | Buy-Low, Sell-High Trade Targets | Start & Sit | Loves & Hates | Stock Watch | Sleepers & Streamers | QB Streamers | D/ST Streamers |
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