Trends and NoteWorthy’s: ADP Comparisons

One of my weekly Fantasy baseball contributions to Fantrax will be Podcasts and another will be a column I like to call “Trends and NoteWorthy’s.” The goal of this weekly article is to highlight players, or circumstances, that are either isolated and therefore “NoteWorthy,” or in the process of developing and therefore “Trending.”

If someone or something is “NoteWorthy,” then it’s just that, worth noting. More often than not, when a player appears in the “NoteWorthy” segment, I am trying to prevent owners from overreacting to a misleading or innocuous circumstance. The sample size is almost always small and lacks statistical support, which leads to the second prong of the weekly column; “Trends.” When a players performance advances from isolated occurrences to a pattern, that player transitions from being “NoteWorthy” to “Trending.” It’s common for me to profile the same player in back-to-back weeks or multiple times over a month because of the changing circumstances and its implications. Paul Goldschmidt was a perfect example in 2018. I wrote, in mid-May, when he was in the midst of a dreadful month, that he should not be traded in either yearly or Dynasty leagues, but that benching him for a week or two was justified. He had six extra-base hits and a .144 batting average in May. He bounced back in June with eight doubles, 10 home runs and he batted .364. He was a buy-low, but he was also unstartable. Owners that didn’t read my column probably sold Goldy.

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Draft Season Trends and NoteWorthy’s

This early in draft season it’s difficult to make a sound case for many Trends, but there are plenty of NoteWorthy’s. We have enough Average Draft Position (ADP) data to take note without comfortably being able to conclude too much. There has been some buzz and buzz creates NoteWorthy nuggets.

Let’s get to it in the premiere of “Trends and NoteWorthy’s.”

NoteWorthy

Offensive ADP Comparisons

 

Trevor Story, SS Colorado Rockies – ADP #23.3

2018 Stats:

37 Home Runs – 27 Stolen Bases – 108 Runs Batted In – 88 Runs Scored – .291 Batting Average

Story hit five more home runs, stole three fewer bases and while Mookie Betts went wild with a .346 batting average, Story still batted .291. Well above the league average. Statistically, he didn’t out-perform Jose Ramirez, Mike Trout or Betts, but he was equally as Fantasy dominant as Christian Yelich and Francisco Lindor. Lindor currently has an injury issue and plays in Cleveland while Story plays 81 games in Coors field and is healthy for the time being. And, Story plays a thinner position than Christian Yelich, who has an ADP of #7.3 according to Fantasypros.com. How does Story have an ADP of #23 when Lindor is being drafted fifth and Yelich seventh?

2018 was an enormous breakout season for Story. He broke the 30 home run barrier for the first time and he had never stolen more than eight bases in a season before swiping 27 this past one.

It’s understandable for early drafters to be skeptical and analysts to project regression. But, a full round after a positional peer like Alex Bregman, a round and a half after Trea Turner and almost two rounds after Francisco Lindor? 16 slots after fellow Rockie Nolan Arenado, who plays the same schedule under the same conditions and doesn’t steal bases? Story is being drafted five picks after first baseman like Paul Goldschmidt, who had an up-and-down year, and two behind Freddie Freeman, who has been hurt in recent years and who also doesn’t steal bases? Drafters are having doubts. I’m feeling value at #23.3 and Trevor Story.

 

Bryce Harper, OF Philadelphia Phillies? – ADP #19.3

2018 Stats:

34 HRs – 13 SB – 100 RBI – 103 Runs – .249 BA

Harper makes the column because of Manny Machado. What? He is the biggest free agent still on the market and all the betting money is on Philadelphia, one of the friendliest hitters park in baseball. That will move the ADP needle and makes him NoteWorthy this week.

Harper has see-sawed between batting in the .240’s – 2018 and 2016 – to batting .319 and .330 – 2017 and 2015. What is more head-scratching than the fluctuations in his batting averages is that a player about to land what is expected to be the richest contract in baseball history, who is playing in an era when everyone is hitting home runs and Harper has only two seasons where he has hit 30 or more home runs and only one season of 40-plus home runs (2015). And yet, as of February 21, he is being drafted after Paul Goldschmidt and Alex Bregman and has the same ADP as Aaron Judge. It’s incongruous. Does he deserve to be the richest man in baseball history or is he what the back of his baseball card suggests and Fantasy owners are currently saying; that he is a late second round selection? Smells like a potential steal to me.

What makes Harper a value with upside to dream on at an ADP of #19.3 is that he has stolen 11 or more bases four times with a career high of 21. With home run potential to slug 50 and a respectable stolen base history he should be selected before Alex Bregman (ADP of #14.7) and Paul Goldschmidt (ADP of #18.3) and while I can see why owners might feel more comfortable drafting Aaron Judge, Harper has a higher ceiling and more upside in 2019.

Harpers ADP was likely to rise as more and more owners realized the value at #19.3, but with the assumption that he will be hitting in that friendly Philly ballpark it is likely to rise significantly quicker now. In two weeks, I foresee re-profiling Harper as an overdrafted top 10 pick. He is “NoteWorthy” this week and likely “Trending” in early March. Stay tuned.

 

Reaches and Regression Candidates: Pitching ADP’s

 

Blake Snell, SP Tampa Bay Rays – ADP #29.0

2018 Stats:

180.2 Innings Pitched – 221 Strikeouts – 1.89 ERA – .97 WHIP – 21 Wins

Snell had never pitched more than 129.1 innings or struck out more than 119 batters before his 221 strikeout explosion in 2018. What’s interesting about Snell is that he isn’t a young prospect. He’s already 26 years old and has pitched in parts of three major league seasons. He is only five months younger than free agent eligible Manny Machado and two months younger than Bryce Harper.

The Fantasy world loves upside and I generally agree. Investing in upside rather than settling for what’s predictable when deciding between two comparable players at the same position is usually the better way to go. What I find NoteWorthy about Snell is how high he is being selected considering the entire profile. There are indicators that regression rather than progression is coming.

Snell pitched a career-high 180.2 innings and struck out 102 more batters in 2018 than he did in 2017. He struck out more batters in 2018 than 2016 and 2017 combined even though he started 13 fewer games and pitched 37.2 fewer innings. He pitched a previous season high of 129.1 innings.

In Snell’s defense, August and September/Oct were his best months across the board. He struck out more batters in September/Oct than any prior month and tied for the most innings pitched with March/April. He had his best batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA against in August and September as well. A compelling argument can be made that he was hitting his stride rather than tiring as his workload reached and exceeded levels he had ever experienced before. All positive signs that he can make that next advance and be a 200-plus inning pitcher in 2019. For Snell to justify his current ADP he will need to.

He is being drafted No. 29 overall, eight spots after Justin Verlander (#21.0), 4.3 after Aaron Nola (#24.7) and 2.7 after Gerrit Cole (#26.3).

I disagree with it, but I can understand how owners feel more comfortable drafting Nola than Snell. I would rather invest in the potential upside of Snell than the potential regression of Nola, but it’s a 55/45% type of call. Almost a coin flip. What makes Snell’s ADP Noteworthy is how he is being selected in the same neighborhood as Verlander and Cole.

Cole also had a significant break out in 2018, but he has pitched 200.1 innings or more and struck out 196 batters or more in three of the last four seasons. His leap in strikeouts from a previous high of 202 to 276 raises questions about what his true strikeout potential is. Its reasonable to expect some regression in 2019, but 200 strikeouts is a conservative projection and expecting 230-240 strikeouts is not an aggressive outlook. Snell has the potential to be a 250 strikeout starter this season, but It’s extremely difficult to see how he strikes out 275 or more batters and thats why he shouldn’t be drafted in the same general area as Cole and Verlander.

I would draft Snell ahead of Nola because the upside justifies the risk. I don’t project enough upside to overcome the uncertainty related to Snell to risk selecting him even close to Cole. And Verlander. That’s a head-scratcher. If Snell can somehow reach his full ceiling in 2019, and I never draft a player based on the expectation that they will reach it, it is still likely to be Verlander’s floor. I don’t rank Snell and Verlander on the same tier, and I am extremely reluctant to include Snell on Cole’s level either. The fact that these pitchers are all being drafted within a round of each other is NoteWorthy and justified a mention.

 

Walker Buehler, SP Los Angeles Dodgers – ADP #41.7

2018 Stats:

137.1 IP – 151 SO – 2.62 ERA – .96 WHIP – Eight Wins

Buehler flashed impressive “stuff” in 2018 and it’s easy to see why the Fantasy world expects a breakout in 2019. But, even in the best of scenarios, could Buehler exceed what Blake Snell did in 2018? An ERA of 1.89, WHIP of .97 and 221 strikeouts? And, if he can, should owners be drafting him alongside Noah Syndergaard (#37.3 ADP), Carlos Carrasco (#38.7 ADP) or Trevor Bauer (#35.0 ADP)? Probably yes, if we KNEW he was going to do that. But, there is risk and uncertainty here. Plenty of it.

Buehler is only 175 pounds and only pitched 137.1 innings in 2018, a career high. 175 strikeouts and 155-170 innings pitched are reasonable projections in 2019, but in order to reach 200-220 strikeouts he is going to need to pitch 175-200 innings and dominate in the process.

Syndergaard struck out 218 in 2016, Bauer has struck out 196 batters or more twice and Carrasco three times.

Syndergaard’s lack of innings in 2017 and 2018 makes being bullish on Buehler’s projections rather than settling for Syndergaard a viable choice, but I don’t see the case for Buehler compared to Bauer and Carrasco.

Carrasco has pitched 196 or more innings and struck out 226 or more batters in two straight seasons, while Bauer has pitched 175.1 and 176.1 innings and struck out 221 and 196 batters in back-to-back seasons. Buehler’s ceiling is Bauer’s floor and significantly below Carrasco’s. Buehler doesn’t belong in the same tier as these two Indians pitchers and it’s a reach to draft him ahead of Syndergaard unless you downgrade him because of injury concerns.

Patrick Corbin and James Paxton are being drafted #51 and #52.7 overall, 9.3 and 11 slots after Buehler. Paxton and Corbin are both safer alternatives being drafted later.

Projecting a jump from 137 to 190 or more innings pitched while maintaining the same dominant performance in those additional innings is a common draft-season mistake. Stephen Strasburg is being drafted #57.7 overall while Zack Greinke is being selected #60.7. Buehler’s upside justifies consideration compared to Greinke, but he should not be drafted before Corbin, Paxton or even Strasburg.

 

Rookie Overdraft

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays – ADP #47.3

2018 Stats: NONE

Rookies are rarely Fantasy stars in their debut season, but that doesn’t prevent owners from stumbling all over one another to own them. Here is a quick history lesson to provide some context to counteract the lunacy surrounding Vlad Jr..

In 2018

* Daniel Palka led rookies with 27 home runs

* Only seven rookies played 130 games or more

* Miguel Andujar led rookies with 92 RBI’s and only three knocked in 70 or more

 

Recent History

• In 2017, Aaron Judge hit 52 home runs – Cody Bellinger 39
• In 2016, Trevor Story hit 27 Home Runs to lead all rookies
• In 2015, Kris Bryant hit 26 home runs in 151 games his rookie season
• Mike Trout played 139 games and hit 30 home runs while knocking in 83 runs his rookie year while Bryce Harper hit 22 in 139 games
• Jose Abreu hit 36 as a rookie in 2014. Does he count as a “rookie?”

Vald jr. is a great talent and one of the most elite prospects we have ever seen. He dominated the minors in 2018, batting .381 while slugging 20 home runs with an OPS of 1.073 scattered over four levels and the Arizona Fall League was even less of a challenge.

All that being said. Kris Bryant, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper. With the exception of Aaron Judge, who had one of the greatest rookie seasons we have ever seen, rookies rarely hit 30 home runs and in Vlad’s case, he doesn’t steal bases. Where is the value coming from to justify drafting him within seven picks of Starling Marte, four after Anthony Rendon and three after Carlos Correa? How can owners justify drafting him before Xander Bogaerts and since we don’t know when the Blue Jays plan to promote him, how is it justified to draft Vlad Jr. ahead of George Springer, Ozzie Albies, Gary Sanchez or even Gleyber Torres. Jean Segura and fellow third baseman Matt Carpenter, coming off a 36 home run season, are being selected almost two rounds later. Travis Shaw hit 32 home runs and has multi-position eligibility, 1B, 2B and 3B, and he is being selected #96.7 compared to Vlad Jr. at #47.3. Almost 50 picks later. Five rounds. Justin Turner – an ADP of #108.3. 65 slots. Lunacy. And NoteWorthy.

 

Reasonable Rookie ADPs

Victor Robles, OF Washington Nationals – ADP #125

Robles had a chance to be an impact player for the Nationals in 2018, but an injury limited him to only 21 games. Robles has the tools to contribute both power and stolen bases, elevating his floor while creating a tantalizing ceiling.

Juan Soto profiles to be a better pure hitter, while Robles has the more explosive tools and the higher overall ceiling. That’s scary, because Soto looked fantastic as a rookie in 2018.

Robles is being drafted ahead of, but in the same vicinity as, more reliable veterans with less upside, like David Peralta (#126 ADP), Aaron Hicks (#127 ADP), Andrew McCutchen (#132.7 ADP) and Ender Inciarte (#140 ADP). McCutchen is the safest selection while Inciarte has the best mix of risk and upside in this group. Robles’ skill set justifies chasing his upside rather than settling for the alternatives with safer floors. His current ADP isn’t out of line and he could be more valuable in category leagues than Vlad Jr. and almost 80 picks later.

You can follow me on Twitter @CJMitch73 or Talk Baseball with me on Facebook in the group “A Podcast To Be Named Later.”

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Where do you stand on these ADP comparisons? For more great rankings, strategy, and analysis check out the 2019 FantraxHQ Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit. We’ll be adding more content from now right up until Opening Day!

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