The Hot Stove has been a bummer, but draft season always delivers. Who is being drafted when, is second to statistical projections in importance at this time of the season, and it’s a lot more interesting to discuss than where Machado and Harper were going to sign. It’s far more interesting discussing a player’s Average Draft Position than haggle over how many home runs or stolen bases he’s going to finish the season with. I have a few articles on the horizon and a lot of them are ADP based and today, that will be the focus with a look at the top ADP Values of the first five rounds.
“The King” Scott Engel did his own one-man Mock Draft and Doug Anderson of Fantrax suggested compiling a Fantasy team based on the best values according to ADP. So, I used both of those ideas to determine the parameters for today’s article.
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League Settings and Roster Guidelines
In an attempt to maintain legitimacy and represent the largest majority of leagues as possible, I chose to base my analysis on a 12-team, head-to-head, snake draft. Ten teams is too small while 15/16 is too large and rotisserie is different than head-to-head.
Second, for the sake of word-economy and my own sanity, I based the article on a starting roster of three outfielders, five starting pitchers, three relievers, one player at each infield position(5) and four bench spots. That creates a clean, 20-man team and 20-rounds of values. Nice round number.
The issue I had the hardest internal debate about was whether the article should be what Doug Anderson suggested, a team of best ADP values, or what Scott Engel did, a mock draft that addressed the best values, round-by-round. I decided that the article should focus on the best values in each round,1-20, with a supplemental of “honorable mentions,” rather than handcuff myself and alter the evaluation process with positional demands and roster requirements.
When I finish this article I may have a legal lineup with the best values at each position, but when I started the experiment, I didn’t consider that at all. Lastly, and this could be considered a little bit sticky, I based my analysis of “value,” not on one specific set of scoring categories, but on the categories most leagues use. I did not base it specifically on standard 5×5, which doesn’t include On-Base Percentage, but does include Batting Average. I based my player analysis on a league with both of these categories. Both BA and OBP categories are “standard” in my mind, but, technically, standard 5×5 format does not use on-base percentage. I didn’t consider Holds or OPS or Quality Starts. They are becoming more common, but they aren’t used enough to consider them “standard,” so I didn’t consider them.
Last, but not least, I used Fantasypros.com Average Draft Position rankings to base my evaluations. They compile average ADP’s from Fantrax, ESPN, CBS, RTS, and NFBC and they have an overall ranking based on a combination of all of these sites ADP’s.
Best ADP Values – Rounds One through Five
Round One – Picks 1-12
Ronald Acuna – OF Atlanta Braves – ADP #10
2018 Stats: 111 Games Played – 26 Home Runs – 16 Stolen Bases – .293 Batting Average – .366 On-Base Percentage
There really isn’t a best value in the first 12 picks. I wouldn’t draft Max Scherzer (#6) or Nolan Arenado (#7) ahead of Christian Yelich (#8), Trea Turner (#9) or Ronald Acuna (#10), but there isn’t substantive “value” to be found. They are preferences.
I chose Acuna because he has a chance to be this year’s MVP and he is being drafted 10th of 12. Fantasy owners should be cautious about assuming that Acuna will maintain the same level of performance in 2019 that he did in 2018. 26 home runs in 111 rookie season games is not guaranteed to be 35-40 home runs in 162 sophomore season games. This is a common mistake, but it’s easy to see why so many of us make it. He could. Gary Sanchez didn’t. Many others haven’t. Especially in year two, as the league adjusts. Christian Yelich is a close second because he has more of a track record to rely on, but he is also two picks earlier.
Drafting Acuna is justifiable anywhere after the unanimous big three of Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez. Because of his ability to hit for average and power as well as steal bases, I would draft him ahead of J.D. Martinez (#5), Max Scherzer (#6) and Nolan Arenado (#7). I would also consider selecting him before Francisco Lindor (#4) and Trea Turner (#9). It’s a tougher call, but a justifiable one by owners.
Honorable Mentions:
* Christian Yelich, OF Milwaukee Brewers – ADP #7
Round Two – Picks 13-24
Trevor Story, SS Colorado Rockies – ADP #23
2018 Stats: 157 Games Played – 37 HRs – 27 SBs – .291 BA – .348 OBP
A lot of players had breakout seasons in 2018 and Story is receiving the least amount of respect of all of them. From a Fantasy perspective, he had a better all-around 2018 season than Manny Machado, Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez and Alex Bregman and a comparable one to National League and American League MVPs Christian Yelich and Mookie Betts. He plays his home games at Coors field and qualifies at shortstop, both boosts to the value of most players.
There are legitimate reasons for Fantasy owners to expect regression from Story in 2019, but his ADP is a steal even assuming he will.
In two prior seasons, Story batted .239 and .272 with K% of 34.4% and 31.3%. He had never hit more than 27 home runs prior to his 37 home run breakout, and most significantly, his previous career highs in stolen bases were eight and seven. All that being said. He produced like a top-five Fantasy player in 2018 and his 2019 ADP is #23. Eight slots after Alex Bregman, 12 after Manny Machado and 16 after Nolan Arenado. He is being drafted after first baseman Freddie Freeman (#20) and Paul Goldschmidt (#19) and multi-position and multi-category star Javier Baez, a player with many of the same concerns owners have about Story.
Statistically, it’s justifiable to select Story in the top 10. Nobody is doing that and I am not advocating that owners should unnecessarily make that kind of draft-day reach. But, it’s justifiable to project that kind of 2019 season and to draft him that high. With an ADP of #23, Story is one of the best bargains of the first 10 rounds of Fantasy drafts.
Honorable Mentions:
* Javier Baez, 2B/SS/3B Chicago Cubs – ADP #16
* Bryce Harper, OF Philadelphia Phillies – ADP #20
* Aaron Judge, OF New York Yankees – ADP #19
Round Three – Picks 25-36
Kris Bryant, 3B/OF Chicago Cubs – ADP #31
2018 Stats: 102 Games Played – 13 HRs – Two SB – .272 BA – .374 OBP
With breakout seasons comes a rise and with busts usually a fall. With Bryant, the fall has been significant and for owners, it has made him a value.
Bryant hit 26, 39 and 29 home runs, stole 28 total bases and batted .275, .292 and .295 over three major league seasons prior to his disastrous 2018 campaign. At his best, he has the potential to contribute statistically similar to Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado like he did in 2016. That doesn’t mean he should be drafted in the first round. But, he is currently being drafted #31 overall and outside the top two rounds.
Bryant could plausibly have a better 2019 season than any player currently being drafted between Paul Goldschmidt at #17, Aaron Judge at #19 and Juan Soto at #30 and he is position eligible at both outfield and third base. I would draft him as high as #17, while I prefer chasing the upside of Bryce Harper (#20) and Aaron Judge (#19).
Honorable Mentions:
* Gerrit Cole, SP Houston Astros – #26 ADP
* White Merrifield, 1B/2B/OF Kansas City Royals – #33 ADP
* Trevor Bauer, SP Cleveland Indians – #36 ADP
Round Four – Picks 37-48
Starling Marte, OF Pittsburgh Pirates – ADP #40
2018 Stats: 145 Games Played – 20 HRs – 33 SB – .277 BA – .327 OBP
I consider Marte the best value because he is far and away the best overall statistical Fantasy contributor in this group of players even though he has a higher ADP.
Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard could strike out 225-250 batters with strong ratios and they represent the end of a tier for starting pitchers, but Marte’s combination of power, speed, and batting average is unattainable by any other batters in this round. If an owner’s team needs pitching rather than offense, at this stage in the draft, then selecting Carrasco instead of Marte is a justifiable strategic decision, but Marte is the better ADP value.
Carlos Correa and Anthony Rendon’s value at their ADPs are based on the positions they play and not their statistical potential, of which they don’t compare to Marte. The majority of the Fantasy community likes these two players at these ADPs and I acknowledge that reality, but I disagree with them. I would rather reach for Ozzie Albies or Gary Sanchez in the fourth round than draft Correa or Rendon, but I suspect that my opinion is an outlier rather than a part of the Fantasy community consensus.
I would feel comfortable drafting Marte before Charlie Blackmon at #27, Andrew Benintendi (#29) and I would seriously debate him and Kris Bryant at #31. Marte is a safer choice, but I project a huge comeback season from Bryant and I want shares of him, especially at #31. Marte is currently being drafted as much as 15 picks too late. Great value as February comes to a close.
Honorable Mentions:
* Carlos Carrasco, SP Cleveland Indians ADP #38
* Khris Davis, OF Oakland A’s – ADP #39
Round Five – Picks 49-60
Gary Sanchez, CA New York Yankees – ADP #60
2018 Stats: 89 Games Played – 18 HRs – .186 BA – .291 OBP
I have an article currently being edited that recommends the position be removed from Fantasy baseball. I despise catchers. Their inconsistency and overall lack of production and so you can imagine the grimace on my mug as I declare a catcher, a Yankee no less, as a “value.” However, with every rule there is an exception and Sanchez is that guy this year.
Eugenio Suarez can really slug at #51 (34 home runs in 2018), while Ozzie Albies at #54 has the stolen base/power combination I typically prefer, but Sanchez can really hit. If he didn’t have to navigate the defensive responsibilities and suffer through the physical demands of the catching position he could bat .300 and slug 40 home runs. One of these years he’s going to have that season and at #60 overall, I love the value.
Joey Votto, 1B Cincinnati Reds – ADP #57
2018 Stats: 145 Games Played – 12 HRs – .284 BA – .417 OBP
I had to write Votto up at this ADP because he has to bounce back from a horrible 2018 season and because, even in a horrendous season, he was an OBP monster. Batting average and OBP are categories that aren’t given a lot of consideration during most drafts, but Votto is one of the few players that OBP formats significantly impact his value. Votto becomes a good value with a lot of upside in these leagues.
He hit between 29 and 36 home runs per season in 2015-2017 and he even stole 11, eight and five bases for good measure. Combine a bounceback season, his BA and OBP dominance and how shallow first base has become as a Fantasy position and I had to include him as a value at the end of the fifth round.
I would be comfortable drafting Votto ahead of Eugenio Suarez at #51, way ahead of Vlad Guerrero Jr., who isn’t even a consideration for me at #106, nevermind #46 as he is currently being selected, J.T. Realmuto (#53) and Gleyber Torres (#56).
Honorable Mentions:
* Stephen Strasburg, SP Washington Nationals – ADP #55
Draft Strategy Based on Best ADP Values
Most of the best values in the first five rounds of February drafts have been offensive players and many of those are outfielders. For owners that draw a mid-first round pick, it’s a prudent strategy, though unconventional, to reach for Max Scherzer at picks three or four through eight or nine. It guarantees they acquire an ace and it allows them to “settle” for offensive values like Trevor Story, Javier Baez, Bryce Harper or Aaron Judge at the mid, to back end of round two.
This strategy could also result in either Kris Bryant or Gerrit Cole falling in owners’ laps in the third round. That would mean that a team’s first three selections were Max Scherzer, Trevor Story and either Gerrit Cole or Kris Bryant. Not a bad way to start a draft.
You can follow me on Twitter @CJMitch73 or talk Fantasy with me on Facebook in the group “A Podcast To Be Named Later.”
Hopefully, you found Chris’ take on ADP Values helpful? For more great fantasy baseball rankings, strategy, and analysis check out the 2019 FantraxHQ Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit. We’ll be adding more content from now right up until Opening Day!
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