It’s only right to start my 2023 bold prediction series with the AFC West. This division is home to the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. It’s safe to assume the Chiefs win the AFC West for an eighth consecutive season. However, the division is loaded with talent and significant changes to the three other teams should make for a competitive year.
Each week, I will highlight one fantasy football bold prediction from each team, division by division, until the start of the 2023 NFL season. These predictions will hopefully get the gears in your head turning. Most are positive while others may be negative. The likeliness that every single one of these predictions hits is certainly not 100%. However, they should generate some buzz or cause you to think twice about each player. Just be confident in your feelings when you’re on the clock.
Be sure to check out bold predictions from the other divisions all summer long on Fantrax as well as follow me on Twitter @Colin_McT for plenty more fantasy football content.
A Fantasy Football Bold Prediction for Each AFC West Team
Denver Broncos
McTamany’s Bold Prediction: Samaje Perine rushes for over 1,000 yards
This may not seem like too big of a bold prediction, but it is for a few reasons. First, 15 running backs logged 1,000 or more rushing yards last season. If I asked you which 15 accomplish that in 2023, Samaje Perine is an afterthought of a consideration.
Second, Samaje Perine is turning 28-years old and entering his seventh season playing for his fourth team. He has just 1,592 total career rushing yards. Lastly, the Russell Wilson led Broncos ranked 21st in rushing last season with 1,935 total yards.
So, what’s different in 2023 that will work in Perine’s favor? For starters, Sean Payton is an upgrade as head coach. Even when Javonte Williams returns to the field, Payton has a history of successfully rotating two backs out of the backfield. In addition to Perine, the Broncos spent big money on offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey and guard Ben Powers in free agency. Their presence up front not only protects Wilson in the pocket but should open up the run game, too.
There are 92.2% of last year’s running back carries in Denver available for Perine to command a chunk of. Though a small sample size, Perine flashed dual-threat capabilities last season with the Cincinnati Bengals. When filling in for Joe Mixon, Perine logged a 30.2-point game, with three receiving touchdowns, followed by two starts with an average of 20.4 points per game. I believe the Broncos will open up their passing game by establishing the run. Perine has a fantastic opportunity to help do so.
Kansas City Chiefs
McTamany’s Bold Prediction: Travis Kelce catches a career-high 13 touchdowns
Last season, my bold prediction for the Chiefs was that Kelce would catch a career-high 12 or more touchdowns. He caught 12 exactly. I’m raising the bar ever so slightly with the bold prediction Kelce catches 13 or more this season.
Kelce is Patrick Mahomes’ top target in the Chiefs’ passing game. He boasts the most targets amongst all Kansas City players in four of the last five seasons. As a result, Kelce has four finishes as the top tight end in fantasy football during that stretch. In those four seasons, he’s averaged 52.1 points more than the TE2.
More importantly, Kelce dominates the red zone. Since 2018, when Patrick Mahomes became the starter, Kelce has ranked 5th, 6th, 3rd, 11th, and 1st in red zone targets amongst all players each respective season. Additionally, 39 of his 47 regular season receiving touchdowns during that stretch were scored inside the red zone. The Chiefs rank second in red zone touchdown scoring percentage from last season.
As the top target with one of the best quarterbacks on one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league, Travis Kelce should be on every fantasy football manager’s radar. When the Chiefs get into a position to score, Kelce is more often than not the guy getting the looks. My bold prediction of 13 receiving touchdowns should provide confidence to use high draft capital on Kelce for the 2023 fantasy football season.
Las Vegas Raiders
McTamany’s Bold Prediction: Davante Adams records less than 1,000 receiving yards
In two seasons of 15 games player or more as the San Francisco 49ers’ starting quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo has had a 1,000-yard pass catcher twice. Tight end, George Kittle, logged 1,053 yards in 2019 and Deebo Samuel erupted for 1,405 yards in 2021.
It’s worth noting that 768 (54.5%) of Deebo’s 1,405 receiving yards in 2021 are yards after the catch. Deebo ranks first in yards after the catch per reception amongst all wide receivers in each of the last three seasons. He is one of the best players in the league with the ball in his hands. Davante Adams on the other hand has an average of 4.9 yards after the catch per reception over the last four seasons. That would rank 60th amongst all players in 2022.
To get to the point, I think Jimmy Garoppolo does a great job getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers, but I’m not expecting Davante Adams to make the same big plays as, say, Deebo Samuel would. Adams should still lead the Las Vegas Raiders in targets, receptions, and even touchdowns, but I think we see a significant dip in points scored from him this season.
Adams will miss the deep ball connection he had with Derek Carr. Furthermore, it’s no guarantee Garoppolo stays on the field, or even takes the field in 2023 due to a nagging foot injury. The options behind him, as of now, are Brian Hoyer and rookie Aidan O’Connell. Consider this bold prediction an early warning to potentially fade Adams this season.
Los Angeles Chargers
McTamany’s Bold Prediction: Justin Herbert finishes as a top-three quarterback
After a disappointing 2022 season, my bold prediction is that Justin Herbert breaks out in a big, big way. It seems a lot of people forgot that Justin Herbert fractured rib cartilage in the Chargers’ second game last year. That’s just one explanation for the drop from 22.1 and 23.0 fantasy points per game in his first two seasons to 16.9 in 2022.
Herbert holds the record for most passing yards (9,350) and completions (839) in any player’s first two seasons. In 2021, he even set the Chargers’ franchise record for passing touchdowns (38) and passing yards (5,014) in a single season. In 49 starts, he has just four games without a passing touchdown.
Ahead of the 2023 season, offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will be calling plays for Herbert and the Chargers. Moore is responsible for high-scoring, successful seasons from 2019-2022 in the same role with the Dallas Cowboys. Herbert will retain his full complement of weapons, as well, in Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Gerald Everett, and others while adding first-round rookie receiver Quentin Johnston into the mix.
In order to fulfill my bold prediction, Herbert will have to combine for around 45 more total touchdowns and/or rush for 500 or more yards. He averages just under four rush attempts per game and logged eight rushing touchdowns in his first two seasons. Given the offensive personnel, his rushing ability, and an upgraded play caller, the 2023 season is the perfect storm for Justin Herbert.
Got a few bold predictions of your own? Drop some knowledge in the comments below. For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
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— Lisa Ann (@thereallisaann) May 6, 2023