AL Central Closer Situations and Bullpen Preview

An interesting tidbit on bullpens we will discuss moving through this offseason.

My friend Jeff Zimmerman is a tremendous analyst and wonderful writer who does lots of research at RotoGraphs.  If you are not reading his “Mining the News” or have not purchased his book “The Process,” rectify both situations immediately. Both are invaluable pieces of information.

Jeff points out that 60% of all saves in 2023 were earned by closers who initially had the job at the beginning of the season.  To add, 40% of the initial closers held the job all year.  What does this seem to mean?  Well, to me, it seems to mean that there are going to be fewer saves on the waiver wire this season and that you might need to push up closers in your draft process, or risk being left out in the cold for saves.

AL Central Bullpen Preview

We are doing a division-by-division look at MLB bullpens as a primer for those early drafts. Today we feature the AL Central, which at this time, looks to be wide open for the taking. It is the worst division in baseball, but there are many useful bullpen pitchers here that are “roster-worthy” for your fantasy teams.

Let’s take a look starting with the team I supposedly love but right now detest:

Chicago White Sox

The closer role will likely be wide open unless new GM Chris Getz decides to bring in a veteran presence. The Sox believed that they had an excellent bullpen going into 2023, but then lost closer Liam Hendriks twice, once to cancer, and the second time to Tommy John surgery.  Hendriks did not have his option renewed and is a free agent.

In his absence, Gregory Santos showed flashes in the closer role but is likely better used in a lower-leverage role.  Santos had five saves in nine chances with a 3.39 ERA.  After the All-Star Break, however, his ERA jumped to a bloated 4.79. My concern with Santos is that he only has one bankable pitch right now in his slider. He tried pairing that with a high-velocity sinker last year, but the sinker had a .343 batting average against; even the expected batting average against at .289 is too high here.  There may have been some bad luck at play too.  No matter, he needs a second pitch if he wants to stay in this role.

One piece of good news was that he cut his walk rate down to 5.9%. Adding a second strong offering to go with his slider could make Santos a sleeper lower-tiered closer; after all, someone will get saves on this team.

The White Sox signed journeyman reliever John Brebbia this past week, and he could easily find himself in the mix for saves.  At the very least, he will earn holds if the White Sox ever have leads.  The Sox also signed lefty veteran Tim Hill to a deal and he will serve a larger role in the bullpen.

Lefty Aaron Bummer was traded to the Atlanta Braves for five players in November. He was never able to really get on track the last couple of years in Chicago. Walks killed him (13.5%) but his xERA was 3.58 as compared to the sickening bloat of his actual 6.79 ERA.  Expect a mild rebound in Atlanta.

Garrett Crochet is back and healthy heading into 2024 and will certainly have a significant role, but he may be in the rotation this year. The rest of the bullpen is a mixed bag of shambles. Tanner Banks threw 61 innings of 4.43 ball, but besides being lefty, is underwhelming. The Sox traded Joe Kelly, Keynan Middleton, and Reynaldo Lopez, all of whom had significant roles in the bullpen, at the 2023 trade deadline. They then experimented with minor league call-ups Lane Ramsey and Declan Cronin, neither of whom pitched well enough to win a spot.  They have added free agents Justin Anderson and Jake Cousins to this volatile mix as well. There are a couple of minor-league guys to earmark here: Alex Speas and Jordan Leasure. Leasure pitched well in the Arizona Fall League and could easily win a spot with a good spring. Another name to watch could be Rule 5 pick Shane Drohan.

And a bit of a hot take: do not be surprised if Michael Kopech finds himself with a significant bullpen role after two years of abject failure in the rotation. Could he be in the closing mix?

No matter who is in the bullpen,  it is likely to range from work-in-progress to an utter disaster on the South Side.

Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians have arguably the best closer in baseball in Emmanuel Clase. Clase led all of baseball last year with 44 saves, but there were some blemishes: 12 blown chances and nine losses.  Clase is not a big strikeout pitcher with 64 in 72.2 innings.  Clase has had two seasons in a row with over 40 saves which makes him arguably the most valuable relief pitcher in fantasy baseball.  While you might prefer a guy with more strikeouts, Clase is brilliant at limiting walks: 3.7 BB% in 2022, and 5.3 BB% in 2023. Clase struggled in September but there were some grumbles of overuse in Cleveland. Perhaps new manager Stephen Vogt will use him a little less in 2024?  No matter.  Clase still appears poised to give you a ton of saves that will be attached to his current ADP of 45.

Trevor Stephan is one of the premier setup men in all of baseball. Stephan had 28 holds last season to go with seven wins and two saves and a 4.06 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Stephan had a September to forget: 12.54 ERA and three losses while surrendering 13 runs in 9.1 innings.  He should return to the same role in 2024.  Again, questions of overuse plagued the end of his season. Scott Barlow will also be in this mix.

Sam Hentges and Eli Morgan will also be in higher-leverage roles.  James Karinchak is here too, and many fantasy players had thought he would be the closer in Cleveland going back to 2022.  You may recall that many folks thought Karinchak would ascend to the closer role three years back, but Clase became the top choice.  The reason? While Karinchak historically strikes out over 30% of batters, he also has a career 14.1 BB%.  That’s just far too high to be in a high-leverage situation. Also, his xERA was 4.55 as opposed to the 3.23 he had.  Karinchak did have 13 holds; Hentges had 17.

Detroit Tigers

At this point, it looks like incumbent Alex Lange will get the first crack at it again. There were several times last season where poor performance bumped Lange out of the job, but he did finish 2023 as the closer in Detroit. Lange features a terrific curveball that he throws about 59% of the time and has a high whiff percentage at almost 49%. He throws a sinker to right-handed batters and a change-up to get left-handed hitters too and has a 51% groundball rate.  Sounds good, but the problem is the 15.6 BB%, which was in the bottom 1% of all major league pitchers.  If he could cut that in half, you’d be looking at an excellent closer. Something to watch this spring.

Jason Foley has also proven to be valuable in the Motor City. Foley had 28 holds and added seven saves when Lange was out of the job. Foley has a high groundball rate due to a heavy sinker he throws 69% of the time. Because of that, he only had a 19.9 K%.  He’s a good source of holds and should help with ratio controls despite the lower strikeout totals.

The Tigers added to the bullpen when they signed old friend and veteran lefty Andrew Chafin, who will begin a second stint in Motown. Chafin can close in a pinch but seems best served in a high-leverage role in the seventh or eighth inning. Figure Chafin will usually work his way into 5-7 saves.

Jose Cisnero, Will Vest, and Tyler Holton all should have roles in this bullpen as well.

Do not be surprised if Shelby Miller figures into this potentially volatile situation as well.  I would love to see him as a closer.

Kansas City Royals

Veteran lefty Will Smith was signed last week, ostensibly, to close. Smith had 22 saves for the world-champion Texas Rangers, albeit with a 4.40 ERA, a mark that was a grotesque 6.12 in the second half.  He lost his closing job down the stretch in favor of Jose Leclerc.  But the best guess here is that KC signed him to be their closer.

However, James McArthur may have something to say about that. McArthur helped many fantasy players win championships late last season, McArthur earned four saves while striking out 23 in 23.1 innings with a 4.63 ERA and a minuscule .94 WHIP. Don’t let the ERA fool you: he gave up seven runs in his MLB debut in late June but didn’t surrender a run in his last 12 outings which included all four of his saves.  A zero ERA, .28 WHIP, and 15 punchouts in 14.1 innings in September maybe opened some eyes. John McMillon is another name to know here; he’s got a devastating fastball but is coming back from a forearm strain.

The Royals also signed Nick Anderson, who with health, has been a useful weapon in the past.  For those of you who spent valuable FAAB dollars on Carlos Hernandez based on my recommendations, I apologize here. Hernandez lost 10 games and earned only four saves with an unsightly 6.27 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.  Egads. He was miscast as a closer, but this is a talented guy who has struggled to find a role on the staff.  Perhaps a lower leverage role is what is needed after he showed initial promise in 2021 as a starter.

Kansas City also acquired Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, who will be in the rotation. The Royals look to be building a team that can compete for the AL Central crown in a weak division (there Dave, I said it). They could look to make other bullpen additions as well. Tyler Duffey and Sam Long are veterans who could also fight for a role in Spring Training.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins boast the epitome of pure filth in Jhoan Duran. Duran earned 27 saves last year and notched 84 strikeouts in 62.1 innings and was good for a 2.45 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. His ADP will likely continue to escalate; his ADP is currently 55 in NFBC, which currently makes him the 19th pitcher off the board.  If you want him, you’re going to have to pay up. He looks ready for a 30+ save season with good health.

Griffin Jax is a valuable member of this bullpen as well, earning 23 holds last season while chipping in six wins, four saves, and 68 strikeouts. Caleb Thielbar should reprise his role as the important lefty in the pen; he had 14 holds in 2023 although he doesn’t figure to help you much in other statistical categories.

An interesting name to watch here is veteran Brock Stewart, who was terrific in a 28-game sample: two wins, .65 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 39 punchouts in 27.2 innings. He could be a prime candidate for holds if he keeps these gains in 2024. After years of fighting through injuries, Stewart came out with a 97 MPH fastball (39% usage) that he paired with a sweeper (21% usage) that he used primarily against left-handed hitters. He could have a high-leverage role waiting for him in the Twin Cities if he maintains this success.