Ok, I made it through my catcher rankings (AL-Only | NL-Only) and get to come out and play. First Base is perennially the home home to some of the biggest bats in baseball and where fantasy baseball owners fill their power categories from… Only… First base in the American league is really not as good as I was anticipating. In fact as I go down through my AL-Only first base rankings I don’t really see what I would consider to be an elite bat. Sure there are a couple of 40-HR threats and plenty of mid-20 types, but I don’t have a single first baseman projected to hit over .300. The only two who even have a realistic shot at it are probably Jose Abreu and Yuli Gurriel. I’m not sure our perceptions have caught up yet, but over the last few years first base has not been the fantasy pot of gold it once was.
About My Rankings
I explain the full process I use for my rankings in my AL-Only Catcher Rankings. The basic gist is that I compile my projections for all players, then use an automated system which ranks them use Standings Gain Points. So the AL-Only First Base Rankings you see below are all based on the accompanying projections. I’m pretty conservative with my projections and try to limit my natural biases as much as possible. If I believe in the projections (and I do) then I have to trust the rankings (and I do).
Drafting First Base in 2019 AL-Only Drafts
In monoleagues I’m a big believer in Spread the Wealth when it comes to my offense. For this reason I rarely end up with a player I have ranked at the top of a position. That may not apply in my AL leagues this year. I have Jose Abreu ranked as the top overall bat and he may come at somewhat of a bargain, because on the surface it looks like he had a down year in 2018. In reality all his peripherals are right in line with his career averages. He just missed some time due to a fluke “groin injury,” and was the victim of a .294 BABIP which was more than 30 points below his previous career low.
Other bats I’ll be looking at for the right price are Matt Olson and Tyler White. I feel like there’s a lot more power upside in Olson’s bat, yet unlike Joey Gallo, Olson should hit at least in the .250 range. The addition of Michael Brantley confuses issues for White, but if he can get off to a good start, it could be Josh Reddick who loses time when Kyle Tucker shows he’s ready.
Luke Voit may be the most interesting player to watch this spring. He was pretty much considered a Quad-A type player after being up and down with the Cardinals. He was only up once he arrived in New York. Voit ended the season with a .322 average and 15 home runs in just 143 at-bats. I looked a lot deeper on Voit in an article I called The Extrapolation Chamber. There’s no way he replicates his per at-bat numbers from last year, but what if he comes close? In that lineup?
The only thing you don’t want to do in AL-Only drafts is wait too long on a first baseman. I could deal with any of the top two tiers as my starter, but after that you’re putting too much trust in players who could completely collapse. You can’t take a virtual donut at first base in fantasy baseball, no matter the format.
Enjoying these NL-Only First Base Rankings? For more great rankings, strategy, and analysis check out the 2019 FantraxHQ Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit. We’ll be adding more content from now right up until Opening Day!
2019 AL-Only First Base Rankings
The rankings below are based on an 11 or 12 -team AL-Only league use the traditional 5X5 categories.
Rnk | Player | Tm | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
1 | Jose Abreu | CWS | 27 | 85 | 99 | 1 | .287 |
2 | Matt Olson | OAK | 34 | 86 | 91 | 1 | .257 |
3 | Joey Gallo | TEX | 41 | 81 | 91 | 2 | .218 |
4 | Edwin Encarnacion | SEA | 29 | 79 | 94 | 1 | .245 |
5 | Carlos Santana | CLE | 26 | 83 | 85 | 1 | .258 |
6 | Yulieski Gurriel | HOU | 15 | 70 | 80 | 3 | .293 |
7 | Tyler White | HOU | 24 | 65 | 78 | 1 | .267 |
8 | Trey Mancini | BAL | 26 | 73 | 76 | 0 | .252 |
9 | Ryon Healy | SEA | 25 | 60 | 74 | 0 | .272 |
10 | Luke Voit | NYY | 19 | 82 | 84 | 0 | .239 |
11 | Yonder Alonso | CWS | 21 | 67 | 80 | 1 | .252 |
12 | Ryan O’Hearn | KC | 23 | 71 | 75 | 0 | .243 |
13 | Jay Bruce | SEA | 24 | 59 | 74 | 1 | .246 |
14 | Justin Smoak | TOR | 24 | 66 | 76 | 0 | .237 |
15 | Albert Pujols | LAA | 22 | 55 | 71 | 0 | .264 |
16 | Ronald Guzman | TEX | 20 | 63 | 72 | 1 | .255 |
17 | Miguel Cabrera | DET | 16 | 55 | 69 | 0 | .281 |
18 | Mitch Moreland | BOS | 18 | 66 | 70 | 1 | .244 |
19 | Jake Bauers | CLE | 15 | 66 | 67 | 5 | .240 |
20 | C.J. Cron | MIN | 20 | 53 | 64 | 0 | .250 |
21 | Steve Pearce | BOS | 14 | 42 | 48 | 0 | .272 |
22 | Chris Davis | BAL | 20 | 51 | 61 | 1 | .196 |
23 | Justin Bour | LAA | 12 | 25 | 36 | 1 | .252 |
24 | Tyler Austin | MIN | 11 | 30 | 33 | 0 | .231 |
25 | Greg Bird | NYY | 13 | 25 | 31 | 0 | .234 |
Got a beef with my AL-Only First Base Rankings? Did I miss someone? Let me hear it in the comments below or call me out on Twitter (@rotodaddy).
If you’re like us you can’t wait until spring to get the 2019 fantasy baseball season started? Well, you don’t have to. Leagues are already forming at Fantrax.com, so head on over and start or join a league today.
Doug Anderson is an 11-year veteran of the Fantasy Sports industry. His work has appeared on RotoExperts.com, Yahoo.com, SI.com, and NFL.com, as well as in the pages of USA Today’s Fantasy Baseball Weekly and various other magazines. Doug has participated in both LABR and Tout Wars, the two preeminent expert fantasy baseball leagues in existence. Doug was formerly the Executive Editor at RotoExperts and is now Managing Editor here at FantraxHQ. You can follow him on Twitter @RotoDaddy.
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Can you post rankings with players in their primary position only? A lot of players are in multiple positions, just wondering if you have a list where they are listed only in their primary spot.
We’ll be updating all of our rankings this weekend and creating printable cheat sheets as well. On those cheat sheets players will be listed at the position they are most likely to be used at in fantasy. In our rankings we list them at every position they are likely to be eligible at in the majority of fantasy leagues.