The dynamic scorer, lackluster passing point-guard-turned-shooting-guard archetype has a surprisingly long list. There are many players throughout the league who are most likely playing out of position. Frankly, they are not my favorite archetype of player to encounter.
I have a tendency to stay away from these types of players generally. They require the ball in their hands most of the time to make plays or accumulate any kind of stat boost for your team. Players like McCollum used to be, Bradley Beal, Jalen Green, Tyrese Maxey, Benedict Mathurin to an extent, Jordan Clarkson, Jordan Poole and Terry Rozier.
This article focuses on the last two but with a wider look at the validity of these types of players in fantasy. Scoring is necessary in fantasy. It is one of the key components to any successful week, generally. In points-based leagues, points are important. In category leagues: points, three-point percentages, field goal percentages, free throw percentages. We will break down each one and why Jordan Poole or Terry Rozier will best help your fantasy team.
Shooting Guards: Terry Rozier vs. Jordan Poole
Considering drafting either of these players is a bit weird. Both will be playing off-ball. Both will be playing next to assist-first guards with good shooting ability. Obviously, Rozier has an advantage playing next to LaMelo Ball, but Tyus Jones (Washington Point Guard) is no slouch. Having that level of play at the prototypical one is a great benefit to score-first players; especially being able to mix and match looks from different spots around the court. Rozier is a veteran at this, given his age, and he has seen both starting point guard and shooting guard roles plenty throughout his career. Poole, in his age 24 season; a bit less so.
Points: Slightly Poole
These two were practically the same in terms of points output last season. That can be a little deceiving, especially in regards to Rozier. LaMelo Ball missed a huge chunk of the season, and Rozier saw an increase in responsibility.
Although his last two seasons were not much different, Poole will most likely see an increase in role and usage in Washington. This should raise his overall effectiveness and output. We can expect him to be a league-average three-point shooter. Rozier is not far off in this and may be the better sustainable option. Do not expect him to disappear on some nights, or have really inefficient outings. Although it all works out in the end, Rozier may be a better weekly candidate in this regard, especially in points leagues.
Rebounds: Slightly Rozier
Rozier has been a better rebounder over the course of his career than what Poole has started out as. Rozier, over the course of his last three seasons, has averaged 4.3 rebounds, even with a steady but small decline through the last two. Poole is close to achieving this level of rebounding. He has the tools to do it, being an athletic 6’4″. Four rebounds per game would be an ideal stat line for both of them, but Rozier has at least shown the capacity to do it, and would greatly bolster a team that way.
Assists: Even
Jordan Poole and Terry Rozier are nearly exactly the same passers when it comes to projection and history. They both have averaged within .3 assists of one another per game. Last season, they had nearly identical assist percentages on individual play metrics. As much as there should be a nuanced take attributed to the level of play surrounding them, the Wizards and Hornets are not dissimilar in those aspects either. The Hornets may have an ever-so-slight edge.
Stocks: Rozier
This is something Jordan Poole should be better at. Although not the biggest guard, especially not at the two, Poole should be averaging a steal per game just on feel alone. That is not the case. Neither one of these players is going to be super high on the blocks list, at least not as undersized guards at their position. Rozier, on the other hand, has averaged a steal or better per game for five out of his eight seasons, and four straight times as a starter in Charlotte. This is an easy pick. Pick Rozier for steals.
FG%: Even
There are a few questions to ask in these next few sections, and the three-point rate is one of them. Ask yourself, who do you think is the better shooter at face value? The answer, last season, was Jordan Poole. That may not be the case this season. Playing it safe, Poole may yield similar results on more minutes and usage as he did last season. Very rarely do players increase their efficiency given an increase in volume. Rozier, as it happens, was one of those select few who made the jump and it became an instrumental part of his future success. Jordan Clarkson, another example of this type of player, was not. The second question is, is Poole a better overall shooter if Rozier settles back to being an average three-point shooter? That’s something to bank on. To play it safe, take Poole. To bet on a vet, take Rozier.
3PR: Rozier
This is the gambler section of this breakdown. Terry Rozier had the worst shooting year from distance since he was 22 years old, last season. Since then, Scary Terry has a 38.2% three-point shooter on at least six attempts per game. Poole, as a shooting guard, has had one such season of barely above-average success. This is an easy answer for gamblers and one of the deciding factors for a fantasy manager.
FTR: Poole
Free throw rate is an easy answer. Jordan Poole is a much better free-throw shooter than Terry Rozier. It is not particularly close, unfortunately. If your team is in need of free throw shooting by the time this part of the draft is up, consider Rozier has never shot more than 3.5 attempts per game, and has never shot over 87.5% at the line. Poole is a career 87.8% free throw shooter, on more attempts.
Overall: Terry Rozier
Jordan Poole is a good player. Never an All-Star caliber guard, but neither is Scary Terry. Do not make the decision on draft day based on hype. Consider the resume, consider the team, consider the player. Each one has their merits. There is an argument to be made that 24-year-old Poole would be the better option. However, Rozier is still in his 20s and has the success to back up waiting for him in the draft than taking Poole much higher than he should be.
Got a beef with our consensus shooting guard rankings? Let the guys hear about it in the comments below! In the meantime check out all the great analysis in our 2023 Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit!