Your fantasy baseball draft will be here in no time. Are you ready to dominate? Or will you fall prey to some of the most common fantasy baseball draft mistakes?
As you begin mulling over pre-season draft kits and player rankings, it’s important to keep in mind that the draft is a living, breathing, evolving process that takes constant adjustment. And with attention spans on the decline, chances are your commissioner will reduce pick times to a minimum, perhaps giving you just one minute on the clock when it’s your turn to select a player.
This makes it important to be prepared, and also to be aware of the potential pitfalls of a fast-paced draft.
Biggest Fantasy Baseball Draft Mistakes for 2024
Here are the biggest fantasy baseball draft mistakes to avoid in 2024:
1. Getting cute or caught off guard in the first few rounds
The first few rounds in a fantasy baseball draft are really exciting because they are stocked with superstars. Whether you have the 1st pick or the last pick in standard leagues, you have the chance to draft elite fantasy talent, which tends to put everyone in a good, celebratory mood as the draft kicks off.
Don’t blow it. You can’t win the draft in the first few rounds, but you can lose it, especially if you decide to do something cute. The key in the early rounds is to draft established stars who have consistently performed and have proven that they can stay on the field and post. Stay away from hyped prospects, comeback/rebound candidates, or players whose value is being inflated for theoretical reasons, such as a move to a hitter-friendly ballpark or a singular breakout year. Let someone else take that risk; focus on certainty.
Also, avoid making a “panic pick.” I see this situation a lot throughout the draft – you have the perfect pick lined up, then get sniped by the team picking before you, creating a bit of a frenzy as you go on the clock with just a minute or two to decide how to pivot. This is not a great situation to find yourself any round of the draft, but it is essential to avoid a panic pick in the early rounds. Make sure you have a good grasp on your own player rankings and numerous backup plans. If you panic in the first or second round and make a hurried pick, you could regret it all season.
2. Not adjusting your draft plan as you draft
It goes without saying that you should show up to your fantasy baseball draft prepared, with some idea of your team strategy and an array of your personal rankings to help guide you. But you need to be prepared to alter that plan at any moment.
With each pick you make, your team needs change. You shouldn’t stress about which superstar you will get in the first round, but you should be conscious of what they bring to the table so you can build around them properly. For example, drafting Ronald Acuna Jr or Corbin Carroll in the first round means you can afford to wait or pass on steals for a while. If you end up with Aaron Judge or Freddie Freeman, you may monitor players with speed a little more closely.
Other managers will also cause you to alter your strategy, either by selecting the player you wanted or by selecting a player no one anticipated.
So, have a plan, but know that it will need to be adjusted round by round, depending on who you end up picking and how that impacts what your roster needs.
3. Reaching at the wrong time.
There’s a lot of talk amongst fantasy baseball managers about the idea of reaching for a player in the draft – that is, drafting them with a pick much earlier than the player’s ADP would indicate is needed. Sometimes, this is a necessary evil. But it can also be a big-time mistake.
Knowing when to reach is imperative. Reach at the wrong time for the wrong player – Jordan Walker in 2023 anyone? – and you’re shooting yourself in the foot by taking a player you could have drafted later, with less consequence.
My rule is to reach only when my team needs demand it. I never reach for hyped, unproven players, which is probably the most common example of reaching at the wrong time.
4. Getting sucked into a positional run
Some folks caution against missing out on a “positional run” in the draft (when a flurry of picks is used on one particular position), arguing that it could leave you left out in the cold.
While I agree that one should not ignore runs – there is value to jumping on the train – positional runs can also be a good time to find value elsewhere. While everyone else is busy taking closers, for example, you might find that a hitter falls a few picks more than you expected. So, do you jump on the closer train, or snag the surplus value by picking the hitter?
The answer, of course, depends on the exact players, how the draft is going, your roster, etc. But I bring it up to point out that there are times when going the opposite way of a positional run can be an effective strategy. Depending on when the run occurs and at which position, you may come away with a player that actually offers your team more value in the long run by avoiding it. And why go along with a run if you think there is a better player available?
Point is: Sure, get in on those positional runs when it makes sense for your team. But like most things in life, don’t do it just because everyone else is doing it. Going the other way can pay off, too.
5. Failing to build a proper bench/drafting too much “potential” in the late rounds
Managers are intensely focused in the first half of the draft when selecting the top 150 players. After that, things tend to get a little more erratic, with managers freewheeling a bit and using their late-round picks to draft players on a hope and prayer, such as hyped prospects or players with “breakout potential.”
Be smarter than that. Don’t waste your roster spots on potential. Instead, fill them with production. Use your late-round picks to draft useful players that you know will produce for your team, such as these 7 late-round veteran sleepers.
Any experienced fantasy baseball manager will tell you that surviving injuries is key to a successful season. Do yourself a big favor by making sure you draft a solid bench filled with production, not potential.
6. Falling in love with specific players
It’s nice to fall in love in life. But in fantasy baseball, it’s a big-time mistake.
Falling in love with a player can throw off your judgment and cause you to do any number of irresponsible things. You might draft them way too early, or pass on another player with better numbers just because you want so badly, for whatever reason, to own a particular player.
Don’t follow your desires down that dangerous road. There are many ways to build a winning team, and many players that can get you there. A good manager shows restraint, and tries to keep his heart out of it. Root your picks in fantasy analysis – past/projected stats, ADP, and team needs – for the best results.