Here we are, halfway through the season already. For me, it feels like this has been the quickest first half in memory. Perhaps it’s because of the nonstop writing and podcasting! Hey, speaking of which, check out the Nasty Cast and Fantrax Dynasty Baseball podcasts if you haven’t already, why doncha? What else are you going to listen to all day, your boss? I don’t think so. Anyhow, with the All-Star Break in the rearview, let’s take a look at one of the biggest overachievers (given expectations) of the first half, in Blake Snell, and one of the biggest disappointments in Anthony Rizzo. Somehow, I’ve written about neither to this point. We’re right in the middle of trade season, so get on your horse named Buy Low and ride! Giddyup!!
Fire – Blake Snell
“Ohhh that Snell! Can’t you Snell that Snell? The Snell that surrounds youuuuuuuuu!” I was singin’ it in the preseason, and I’m singing it right now, baby! Blake Snell was one of my preseason Dudes at Starting Pitcher. If you’re too lazy to follow that link, one of the points I highlighted was his 2017 second half split: 2H: 77.1 IP, 3.49 ERA, 8.61 K/9, 2.91 BB/9. His 4.11 BB/9 on the season was misleading since he had made some mechanical adjustments and really worked on his curveball, which he had begun using more.
Well, he’s carried that improved curveball along with him in 2018. It has a 1.95 pVal, which is fourth highest among qualified starters behind only some shlubs named Greinke, Kluber, and DeGrom. He has also nearly doubled his usage of the pitch to great success, pairing it with his excellent slider.
That slider? The one he’s using only 11% of the time this year? It’s 4.81 pVal is the highest in baseball – and it’s not close. He’s getting 27% whiffs on the slider and 23% on the curveball, where league average is only about 15% and 11%, respectively. The fact that he also has a changeup that he can utilize 20% of the time makes him very dangerous. In addition to the 95 MPH heat, he can mix in three solid offspeed pitches to keep opposing batters guessing. This is a formula that has even brought him success in a treacherous AL East.
Unfortunately, the walk rate has regressed a bit from his 2H 2017 numbers. It’s back up to 3.55 BB/9, but when you’re missing as many bats as he is, that makes up for it. He has still managed a 1.07 WHIP, after all. So this has all been very good, with very tangible adjustments that have led to a tremendously successful first half. Is this something Blake Snell can maintain in the second half?
While his pitch mix backs up the 10.13 K/9, his 2.27 ERA looks more than a little fortunate. He has allowed a 33.6% hard contact rate, which is only slightly better than the 2018 MLB average 35.4%. Does he deserve his .243 BABIP? Despite a slight fly ball tendency (37%) which can suppress BABIP, the answer is no. He doesn’t induce many pop-ups at 7.5%, and his line drive rate is roughly average at 20%.
He’s also been able to strand runners at an above-average clip. His 86.3% strand rate is way, way higher than the league average 73%. Some of that is legit because of all the strikeouts, but sooner or later those hens are gonna come home to roost. And by hens I mean walks, and by roost I mean runs. His 3.41 FIP takes into account the BABIP and strand rate and adjusts them to league average. That seems like a pretty reasonable outcome for what we’re seeing from Snell moving forward.
He’ll continue to post borderline fantasy SP1 numbers over the second half, but I’d expect a mid-threes ERA moving forward. He’ll have a lot of division games against tough Yankees and Red Sox lineups, which won’t help. If you have plenty of pitching and need a bat or need to target a specific roto category, now is the right time to trade Blake Snell. While I don’t see him cratering over the second half, I do expect him to come back down to earth a bit.
For more great fantasy baseball analysis with a Sabermetric slant, check out the Fantrax Radio Network and the Launch Angle Podcast.
Ice – Anthony Rizzo
This year has been really weird as far as first basemen go. We’ve seen Paul Goldschmidt go through an extended rough patch, but come alive in June and July with a 1.199 and 1.101 OPS, respectively. Cody Bellinger has been stinky. Rhys Hoskins has been a disappointment. Even trusty Edwin Encarnacion is hitting .225. The list goes on and on and on. Another such disappointment has been Anthony Rizzo.
Believe it or not, Rizzo is creeping up on 29 years old and is having his worst season since 2013. Hitting just .246 with 12 homers and 38 runs scored through 83 games isn’t what his owners had in mind when they nabbed him in the early rounds during the preseason. Are we looking at an early decline from Rizzo or a buy low window?
First, we take a peek at his strikeout and walk rates and compare them to his career marks:
1H 2018: 9.9% BB% / 12.4% K%
Career: 11.2% BB% / 16.4% K%
Absolutely nothing to see here! His strikeouts were down to 13% in 2017, so he’s right in line with last year. His 6.5% swinging strike rate this season is actually the best of his career, as is his 85.7% contact rate! Nothing is out of whack here. Let’s move on.
The actual quality of this increased contact is down just a bit. His 32% hard contact rate isn’t great in this day and age, and it’s his lowest mark since 2014. However, back in 2014…he still hit 32 bombs. He also hit 42% fly balls though, and that might be a small culprit here. He’s only at 37% fly balls this year, down for the fourth straight year. It’s not a massive drop, but in the quest for power, every fly ball helps.
Anthony Rizzo’s Groundball Rate Has Done Some Weird Stuff This Year and It’s Gnawing at Me https://t.co/UtRttQNoDS pic.twitter.com/I10DjMBn73
— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) July 10, 2018
So what’s he doing if he’s not getting the ball in the air? Hitting line drives! What a horrible outcome. With 25% line drives, he is deserving of a much higher BABIP than the .249 mark he posted in the first half. His HR/FB rate is also the lowest it’s ever been, at 11.9% (career 15.2%). To put this a bit more into context, his wOBA is a pedestrian .323. His xwOBA according to Statcast is .364, for a difference of -.041. That’s one of the biggest gaps in the league.
What do we do when the surface stats stink but everything looks good under the hood? Buy low, baby!! Rizzo looks like the ultimate buy-low candidate right now, with plenty of positive regression coming and a Cubs lineup offering plenty of protection and R+RBI opportunities. Now get to work!
It’s time to multi-task! Keep up with all of our baseball coverage, but kick off your football prep and dig into our 2018 Fantasy Football Draft Kit. Then head on over to Fantrax and join a Fantasy Football league.