After an unexpected exciting Sunday finish in Memphis, The FedEx Cup Playoffs head to the Rocky Mountains for the penultimate event, The BMW Championship. The Top 50 golfers of 2024 head just outside of Denver to Castle Pines Golf Club, a new course for all 50 golfers. A few have undoubtedly played unofficial rounds here, as it truly is one of Jack Nicklaus’ most beautiful designs, but not one has played it in a tournament setting. It hasn’t held a PGA-sanctioned event since 2006 when it hosted The International, a 20-year running Modified Stableford event.
The drama will be at an all-time high this weekend, where 20 of these 50 golfers will see their season come to an end. Qualifying for The Tour Championship guarantees a payout of at least $500,000, but offers so much more: a chance at a mouth-watering $25 Million for the champion of the 2024 PGA Tour season. It’s easy to focus on such an insane purse next week, but these golfers have to make it to East Lake first. Spots 21-30 are all very much up for grabs, and only the best will be making the trip to Atlanta Sunday night. And the only thing standing in their way is the daunting, yet beautiful, Castle Pines Golf Club.
The Course: Castle Pines Golf Club
Castle Pines Golf Club will break the record for longest PGA course in the history of the Tour. Stretching over 8,100 yards, your first thought may be that only a handful of golfers will be long enough to tame this beast. However, taking elevation into account, the true playing distance of Castle Pines GC is closer to 7,300 yards. Considering this being a par 72 course, the length is actually not too challenging. This is not to say distance isn’t helpful, but looking at those who’ve played well at Tahoe Mountain Club for The Barracuda Championship, it is by no means mandatory. Chez Reavie and Andrew Putnam winning in the mountains should be enough evidence of that.
Like I said, distance will be helpful but will not make or break a golfer’s performance. Accuracy off the tee and approaching the green will be the most important factor. Fairways are decently wide, but golfers will struggle greatly if they continue to find themselves in the thick rough, typically surrounded by large pine trees and water hazards. It is hard to know what to expect from the green complexes, but considering the comparisons to Jack Nicklaus’ Muirfield Village and taking inspiration from Augusta, I would expect putting to be quite difficult. When targeting golfers to bet on, look for accurate ball-strikers with the ability to get hot on the greens and come into Colorado with great form. Or continue reading to see my favorites!
Best Bets: BMW Championship
Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)
Considering the field size, this is an auto bet for Tommy Fleetwood. It’s impossible to stomach the low odds for most of the field, but Tommy Fleetwood’s odds are somehow untouched. Earlier this season, we’ve bet on him in full-field events at 18-1 and 20-1. Coming in at 25-1 and only having to outplay 49 golfers is an absolute godsend!
It’s not just his fantastic odds that make Tommy Fleetwood my favorite pick for The BMW Championship. Fleetwood fits Castle Pines perfectly. He’s both extremely accurate and decently long with the driver. His approach game is amongst the best in the world. Included with his world-class ball-striking is an elite short game, where he almost always gains strokes Around the Green and Putting. Tommy Fleetwood is the ultimate all-around golfer, which is why he is almost always finishing inside the Top 20 regardless of the course.
To make things even more enticing for Tommy Fleetwood bettors, somehow this perennial Top 10-15 golfer in the world is not currently qualified for East Lake. Fleetwood comes into The BMW Championship as the first golfer out, currently sitting at the dreaded 31st position. A quality finish inside the Top 20 should boost him into The Tour Championship, but rest assured that Tommy Fleetwood has an extra incentive empowering his play this week. You can expect only the best from him and at a great number!
Adam Scott (+4500)
Adam Scott is a very similar play to Tommy Fleetwood, although the number is significantly lower than I had hoped for. The 44-year-old is playing some fantastic golf as of late, but currently sits at 41st in the FedEx Cup Standings. It will take a great week for Adam Scott to qualify for The Tour Championship, and I think he has a great chance to do so.
Scott’s 2024 season started out hot with 4 finishes inside the Top 10 in his first 5 events but quickly slowed down. He regained his form in July, where he finished runner-up to Robert Macintyre’s questionable drop at the Genesis Scottish Open. He followed that up with a T10 finish at Royal Troon. Statistically, Adam Scott fits Castle Pines almost as well as Fleetwood. Scott is longer off the tee and inaccuracy is rarely a problem. His approach in 2024 has been hit or miss, but given his current form and place in the standings, I expect it to be of high quality. Finally, Adam’s short game is rock solid. He comes into The BMW Championship having gained over 5 strokes in the short game in 4 consecutive events.
Adam Scott has not won an event since the pandemic, but I have a feeling this dry spell stops in Denver. Scott has long been one of the best in the game, and while the wins have not piled up the way they used to, his game has not slowed down. He’s bound to find himself back in the winner’s circle, and with the extra motivation to get into the Top 30, I think this is the week Adam Scott finally does it once again. Don’t miss out on the resurgence of The Big Queenslander!
Akshay Bhatia (+5500)
After having 2 golfers with extra motivation to play well this week, I thought it would be a good idea to include Akshay Bhatia, who will be playing carefree golf. Bhatia currently sits at 13th in the FedEx Cup Standings, locked into East Lake. Bhatia has a stress-free week of golf ahead of him, but the upside still remains. A quality finish at The BMW Championship will slingshot Bhatia into serious contention of the $25 Million prize at East Lake.
Not only does Akshay Bhatia have an easier week ahead of him from a stress standpoint, he’s also shown the ability to win at elevation. Bhatia broke his maiden last summer at The Barracuda Championship in Tahoe. His youth plays into him having some extra length off the tee, but his ball striking and accuracy are what really make his game. Bhatia showed this talent from the start of his career but putting proved to keep him from really flourishing. He has seemingly figured the flatstick out in 2024, as he’s gained strokes in 67% of the events. This added talent is exactly why he finds himself safely qualified for East Lake. Bhatia has consistently found himself inside the Top 15 this entire season, and I don’t expect that to change this week.
In fact, I think Bhatia can win the whole thing. Just like Viktor Hovland stole the show in 2023 and won The BMW Championship and Tour Championship, I believe Akshay Bhatia can do the same this time around. I understand this is a crazy long shot, but Bhatia is both talented and poised enough to do so. He currently sits at 100-1 to win The Tour Championship, but it starts this week at 55-1!