April flew by, which allows us to research and analyze more on a pitcher’s arsenal, underlying metrics, and results. For last week’s buy or sell installment, we discussed three pitchers. And this week, we’ll look at two lefty starting pitchers with interesting profiles that entered 2022 with polarizing opinions.
Have you experienced something for the first time but don’t have any photos? Then, did it happen? It’s how I feel about Tarik Skubal since I saw a glimmer of hope but never ended up drafting him.
The early success and intrigue in 2022 led to asking whether to buy or sell Skubal, plus an early deep dive on Ranger Suárez. We’ll look at whether fantasy managers should be buying or selling Skubal and Suárez moving forward.
Buy or Sell – Tarik Skubal’s Early Success and Ranger Suárez’s Struggles
Tarik Skubal (SP – DET)
Before the season, Tarik Skubal garnered the most buzz amongst the Tigers trio of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Skubal for 2022 redraft leagues. In June 2021, I examined Skubal in a weekly buy or sell piece regarding his pitch mix. After four earned runs in Skubal’s first start, he posted two straight games with zero earned runs across 11.2 innings.
In 2021, Skubal’s 2.11 HR/9 looked concerning, especially in a pitcher-friendly park. Thankfully, Skubal hasn’t allowed a home run in 2022. Although it’s a small sample of 20.2 innings, Skubal’s 3.05 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with a 22.7% strikeout rate and 3.4% walk rate remain positive. With the home run rate down, Skubal’s .338 BABIP versus a career .282 BABIP, plus a 52% LOB% nearly 24% lower than the career rate of 76.1%. Assuming the home run rate of zero regresses, there’s a chance the BABIP and LOB% regress closer to the career rates too.
Skubal’s Early Pitch Mix Change
Unfortunately, I don’t roster Tarik Skubal anywhere, but the rising NFBC ADP didn’t help. I targeted players like Justin Turner or Sonny Gray in that 150-200 ADP range. So, what changed?
Skubal lowered the four-seamer usage by nearly 8% in 2022, with a slight increase in the slider (23.8%), sinker (17.7%), and changeup (15.8%). In 2021, hitters crushed the four-seamer with a .291 BA, .611 SLG, and .413 wOBA. Unfortunately, it hasn’t fared any better, with a .333 BA, .476 SLG, and .372 wOBA allowed on the four-seamer in 2022.
Against right-handed hitters, Skubal lowered the four-seamer usage plus increased the slider and sinker in the early 2022 sample. With the struggles against the four-seamer, maybe it’s an intentional approach.
Interestingly, Skubal cut the four-seamer usage in half (19.4%) against left-handed hitters with a slider (45.2%) and sinker-heavy (27.4%) approach. Last season, Skubal used the slider (43.3%) and four-seamer (40.1%) over 83% of the time against lefties. It might be an early game plan or a planned approach heading into 2022.
Skubal’s Pitch Results & Movement
It’s early, but Tarik Skubal’s results improved slightly on the four-seam, slider, and sinker relative to the SLG and wOBA. However, the early swinging-strike rates look similar.
He’s throwing the sinker in the zone more with a 71.1% Zone% in 2022 versus a 63.4% Zone% in 2021 with similar contact rates. Meanwhile, Skubal dropped to four-seamer Zone% to 51.9%, down from 63.1%, with about a 5% increase in Zone% on the slider. Next, let’s look at the movement profiles to buy or sell the early results. The chart below shows us the vertical movement changes versus the average across Skubal’s brief MLB career.
The only pitch that changed positively via the movement profiles involves the changeup with 32.4 inches of vertical movement versus 28.5 inches in 2021. Skubal’s four-seamer movement remained identical. However, the slider dropped over four inches more in 2021. The reduced drop possibly means lower whiff rates, and it’s happening so far with a 29.1% Whiff% in 2021 down to 20.8% in 2022.
Although the slider velocity increased two mph, the spin rate hasn’t significantly changed. That said, less movement with a higher average velocity makes sense. Interestingly, Skubal’s slider has less than an inch more horizontal movement.
In 2021, Tarik Skubal thrived in the shadow area of the zone with a -29 Run-Value. However, in the small 2022 sample, Skubal hasn’t stood out via the shadow (-2) and heart (-1) Run-Values. With more data, we could see Skubal improve in the heart of the zone with minor regression in the shadow areas.
Tarik Skubal struggled with HR – 2.11 HR/9 in 2021 with a 2.53 in 2020 versus 0.51 in 2019 in MiLB
Only 2 pitchers in the top-25 in Shadow Area of Run-Values had a positive (BAD for pitchers) Run-Value in the heart:
3) Montas: +4 ❤️ & -38 Shadow
24) Skubal: +4 ❤️ & -29 Shadow pic.twitter.com/HaxNEVVqC1— Corbin (@corbin_young21) January 26, 2022
Amongst pitchers in the top-25 in negative Run-Value in the shadow area, only Frankie Montas and Tarik Skubal finished with a positive Run-Value (bad for pitchers) in the heart of the zone. Given that data, it led me to buy more than sell heading into 2022. That possibly indicates Skubal and Montas could improve in the heart of the zone in 2022.
Buy or Sell Skubal?
In seeing Tarik Skubal’s early success in 2022, I expected more enticing changes and improvements outside of a pitch-mix change. However, I’m interested in the approach change between lefties and righties. It’s positive to witness Skubal’s home run rate drop, but we know the league offense is off to a slow start in April. Attempt to buy high rather than sell with Skubal because he possesses the upside if the four-seam results improve moving forward.
Ranger Suárez (SP – PHI)
We all have our biases, and Ranger Suárez falls into that category for me. In late October 2021, Suárez landed in another buy or sell report during the off-season. Through parts of 2021, I remained skeptical with Suárez, but he crushed it with a 1.36 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 25.6% strikeout rate, and 7.9% walk rate.
Last year, Suárez seemed due for slight regression with a .257 BABIP and 86.3% LOB%. It’s positive, yet possibly unsustainable, to have a 5.8% HR/FB%, but a positive sign as a groundball pitcher. In 2021, Suárez had a juicy 59.2% GB% and 11.2% SwStr%. Amongst pitchers with 100 innings, Suárez ranked third in GB% with Framber Valdez and Logan Webb ahead. A groundball pitcher that elicits swings and misses led fantasy managers to buy more than sell in 2022.
Unfortunately, Suárez’s groundball rate dipped to 51.6%, with the strikeout rate also reduced. It’s concerning to have a 25.6% strikeout rate drop to 14.5%, but expected, given the 7.6% SwStr%. The early dip in skills means Suárez’s pitches aren’t being as effective.
Suárez’s Arsenal & Results
In 2021, Ranger Suárez relied on the two fastballs in the sinker (45.5%) and four-seamer (22.6%), plus a changeup thrown 24.1% of the time. Against opposite-handed hitters, Suárez lowered the sinker usage by about 5% and increased the changeups and four-seamers.
However, against same-handed hitters, Suárez threw a ton of sinkers (64.2%), with the changeup (14.2%), four-seamer (11.3%), and slider (10.3%) accounting for the rest of the arsenal. The pitch mix remains similar in 2022, but Suárez’s pitch results on the sinker and four-seamer started slow.
There’s a slight approach change versus righties with an increased sinker usage in favor of the four-seamer. In 2021, the four-seamer elicited a 22.6% Whiff%, yet down to 9.5% against right-handed hitters in 2022. Unsurprisingly, the early results on the sinker and four-seamer haven’t fared as well against righties.
Sinker
- 2022: .265 BA, .294 SLG, .317 wOBA, 14.5% Whiff%
- 2021: .210 BA, .250 SLG, .236 wOBA, 19.2% Whiff%
Changeup
- 2022: .208 BA, .417 SLG, .279 wOBA, 33.3% Whiff%
- 2021: .202 BA, .327 SLG, .259 wOBA, 40% Whiff%
4-Seam
- 2022: .750 BA, 1.125 SLG, .817 wOBA, 8.7% Whiff%
- 2021: .173 BA, .213 SLG, .224 wOBA, 22.8% Whiff%
When we have concerning results and whiff rates on the three most used pitches, it aligns with the poor performance. Although it’s the fourth most used pitch, the slider isn’t eliciting the same level of swings and misses, evidenced by the 6.5% SwStr% cut in half from 13.5% in 2021.
Suárez’s chase rate on the slider increased slightly, but it’s allowing more contact overall with a 61.4% Contact% in 2021, over 25% more in 2022 at 88.2%. He’s also throwing it in the zone more often in 2022 with a 48.4% Zone%. In 2021, the slider looked nearly unhittable, with only two hits on 126 sliders thrown. Suárez’s slider velocity dropped two mph to 82.1 mph in 2022. Maybe there’s bounce-back potential with Suárez moving forward to help us buy rather than sell.
Suárez’s Pitch Movement
The slight decrease in velocity coincided with the slider spin rate increasing over 75 RPM in 2022. Suárez’s slider added almost five more inches of vertical movement, plus nearly four inches of break. It appears that it’s taking more of a sweeping action, though it’s dropping more too.
The only other notable pitch with movement changes early in 2022 includes Suárez’s sinker with above-average drop and break, with more than two inches more drop. Amongst sinkers, Suárez ranked second with a -21 Run-Value between Adrian Houser and Josh Hader in 2021.
In 2021, 17 pitchers finished with a negative 20 Run-Value in the heart and shadow areas of the zone. Most of the pitchers listed provided ace-like upside, including Ranger Suárez. There’s typically some accumulation and aggregation of pitches with Swing-Take leaders, so we’re dealing with a small 2022 sample.
After a -24 Run-Value in the heart and a -25 Run-Value in the shadow area, the 2022 Run-Value numbers align with the early season struggles. It’s something to monitor with more data since he landed on an elite list in 2021.
Buy or Sell Suárez?
Against Texas, Suárez allowed six hits, five runs (three earned), and two walks with three strikeouts. Suárez gave up 10 hard-hit batted ball events, including two home runs to Jonah Heim and Mitch Garver on a changeup and slider. The sinker had a solid 37% CSW%, with the changeup Whiff% of 22% and slider at 20%.
It’s concerning to see Ranger Suárez have a lower strikeout rate with the arsenal and stuff not performing well. On the surface, Suárez’s .328 BABIP and 77.2% LOB% aren’t an outlier to start the season. After mostly appearances in relief in 2021, it’s safe to wonder whether to buy or sell early in 2022. Assuming the plate discipline metrics regress closer to the 2021 numbers, particularly with the sinker and slider, it could present a buy-low opportunity. However, he doesn’t possess the track record to make it a no-brainer move.