5 Buyer Beware MLB Fantasy Players for 2017

MLB Fantasy Buyer Beware

Every year there are those veterans that show a significant decline, prospects that don’t demonstrate the level of sustained improvement to make the cut, or over hyped players based on one year of success. At any time a player can break out or produce one of those “outlier” years. Fantasy players love to identify those draft day values or breakout stars, but in building a successful team, there must also be an attempt to determine those players that may not perform to the level their rankings or draft position might suggest they should. There isn’t an exact science to either method, but everyone must choose a strategy for both approaches.

The players listed below are but a few suggestions. They are in their own right draftable assets, but at what point in the draft you may want to re-consider. Allowing questionable players to slide gives you the opportunity to develop better players at other positions in their slot. It isn’t a bad strategy to allow some of these to slide down and end on another manager’s roster, thus becoming their headache to deal with, while you seek better choices with each pick.

Adrian Gonzalez – 1B – Los Angeles Dodgers

A-Gon has been a very productive, steady force at the 1B position for several years. Recently, though, the 34-year-old has started to show signs of age, injury, and overall production decline. Here in 2017, he is coming off the boards as the 16th first baseman with an Avg draft position of 156. Granted a decrease to a .784 OPS is not all that bad, but consider his career OPS is .854, he dropped to 18 HR in 568 AB, (his lowest total for his career), and his ISO was a career worse .150. He has started to show some signs of wear and tear over the last couple of seasons, and the Dodgers have a very exciting prospect waiting at AAA in Cody Bellinger as the heir apparent. There is production to be had here, especially if you can pick him up in a late round as a backup/UT position or in an NL-Only Roto League, but there are other options to look at. Both Greg Bird and Josh Bell are being taken around the 250 mark in ADP and will offer a similar skill set, if not more upside, for keeper leagues. Neither are as sure a thing as Gonzalez, but at this stage in his career, he does not measure up to his lofty standards anymore. The time to move on from him is now.

Billy Hamilton – OF – Cincinnati Reds

[the_ad id=”567″]Let me just say that Hamilton is VERY useful in 5X5 Roto League’s and I have no problem seeking him out as a one-category wonder; to some extent. Those 50 plus steals are terribly tantalizing, but for points leagues I just don’t see much value. Even as a Roto target shopping solely for steals, I’d rather target guys that are going to give me better than a career OBP of .297, a lifetime average of .248, with an OPS of .631. He did show some improvements in 2016 of bringing his fly ball rate in check, which led to a BABIP increase of 65 points resulting in a career-best .260 average. This is an extreme one tool player and is probably a better real-life player than fantasy. I’m looking at guys with at least one better tool, like 2017 fantasy draft darling Trea Turner, current Reds’ teammate Jose Peraza, or Philly OF Odubel Herrera. All three offer a little more in the way of average, power, and OBP. With a Fantrax ADP of 82, that is way too high a price to pay in point leagues for Hamilton and I would suggest far better value could be found elsewhere. I’ve seen him in the top 25 in quite a few pre-season rankings list, but I’m not one to chase one category that high in a draft, regardless of league point settings. Outside of Roto leagues he is Waiver Wire bound.

Eric Thames – 1B/OF – Milwaukee Brewers

Ok, a few qualifying statements to include Thames on this list. First of all, in the interest of full disclosure, I own him on an NL Only 12 team Roto league after all attempts at acquiring a better first baseman failed. Secondly, having spent 3 seasons in the KBO, he is anything other than a lock to be drafted in all leagues this year. Rather I include him here to temper some of the pre-season write-ups and rankings other sources seem to be placing on him. Right now he has an ADP of 212 on Fantrax, which puts him ahead of the ever frustrating, but undeniably talented Yasiel Puig, consistent performer and ever improving Ender Inciarte, and up and coming talents like Max Kepler and Manuel Margot. It is true that he is in a excellent hitter’s position in Milwaukee and based on his ridiculous 3 year KBO numbers, (.348/.450/.720, with 124 HR), there is a lot to like. However, in parts of three Major League seasons, he only hit .250/.296/.431 with 21 HR in 633 AB. At the time this article was written, he had 24 spring AB’s with 9 K and one double. At the point of a draft he is being selected, you have to decide if you are getting the KBO Thames, previous MLB Thames, or something in between. For me, I’d rather go with one of those mentioned above OF, knowing basically what I’m getting and let Thames go to waivers until he proves he can hit MLB pitching.

Rick Porcello – SP – Boston Red Sox

[the_ad id=”693″]This is more an effort at tempered expectations than outright avoidance. Porcello is currently an ADP of 102 in Fantrax drafts going ahead of pitchers like Danny Duffy, Gerrit Cole, Danny Salazar, and Marcus Stroman. All of those guys conceivably could be lumped into a pretty small group and would give relatively similar points totals. Porcello is coming off a Cy Young award predicated mostly on a 22-4 record. His peripherals are solid albeit not quite ace worthy of the award and record might indicate. He recorded career best in just about every counting category possible including overall innings. Last year’s BABIP of .269, while a fantastic number, is hardly sustainable given Porcello’s lack of velocity. He is a prime candidate for regression in 2017 as he comes back to the norm; making some of those pitchers above, as well as others, better overall investments. The wins will come as part of a solid Boston team, but for a pitcher that relies more on control and less on power, expect him to balance out closer to career norms. Let him slide down the draft a bit and pick up some guys with more strikeout potential. Don’t chase the W’s.

Francisco Rodriguez – RP – Detroit Tigers

One could argue that K-Rod is being taken right where he should be at this point in his career based on the other options around him. I would be willing to concede that notion based on the many variables that would go into picking a closer low in the draft. Right now he is being taken on Fantrax at 156. He is a reliable closer, but at age 35 we are starting to see the erosion of some of his physical talent. Last year’s K/9 was his career low at 8.02, and his BB/9 were up to 3.24 his highest since 2012. Add in the lingering groin issues from this spring, and his age and I would submit that I’d rather take a chance on a reliever being drafted after him like Sam Dyson, Adam Ottavino, Cam Bedrosian, or Raisel Iglesias. Sure they too might have a few issues, but I’d take my chances on youth and potential over age and declining stuff at that stage in the draft and leave K-Rod toward the end.

Others Worth Monitoring

• Corey Kluber – SP – Cleveland: At some point, the innings will start taking the toll, as they have historically done to just about everyone, especially on someone throwing this many slider
• Josh Harrison – 2B – Pittsburgh: No longer multi-position eligible. 2014 getting farther and farther I rear view mirror. Was that the outlier year and what we are seeing closer to the norm?
• Julio Teheran – SP – Atlanta: Big burden put on him at a young age; so much work and responsibility. Will it take its toll or will he finally improve as the team does around him?