Buys, Sells, and News from NL Lineups 06/25

Back at it with National League lineups. There is plenty to catch up on from the last 10 days of baseball. The five hottest hitters in the National League over that time period have been Eddie Rosario, Elly De La Cruz, Luis Arraez, Juan Soto, and Jordan Walker.

Disclaimer: This article is written the day before publishing. Not all statistics will be 100% accurate from the night before. I will do my best to update any important news or notes that come through at the last second. Keep reading to stay up to date on the latest trends from all 15 National League teams.

Sticking with the new format for this one. Let me know what you think!

More great fantasy baseball advice and analysis: Waiver Wire & FAAB Recommendations | Daily MLB Injury Report | MLB DFS Picks | Line-up Analysis | Dynasty Rankings and Strategy | MLB Bullpen Updates | MLB Player Props | Prospect Rankings & Analysis | Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers

National League Lineup Takeaways

NL East

Philadelphia Phillies

• The return of Cristian Pache has moved Brandon Marsh into a true platoon
  • Marsh is still receiving the majority of at-bats and batting ninth
  • The power has disappeared from Marsh’s stats despite an average EV north of 92 mph and a barrel rate of 8.8% in the month of June. I still am not worried about his production
  • Pache is quietly hitting more fly balls, more barrels, and posting higher EVs than ever before. He is not redraft relevant but in deep dynasty leagues, he is a name to keep an eye on
• What happened to Bryce Harper’s power?
  • Harper has not gone yard since May 13
  • Advise: Buy low. Harper has a 12% barrel rate with an average EV over 92 mph since then.
  • All of his metrics look very strong except his HR/FB%. He is about to go on a tear.

Atlanta Braves

• Sean Murphy has been dealing with an injury that has allowed Travis d’Arnaud to get more playing time
  • Murphy has not played since last Saturday but was able to pinch-hit in a game on Thursday. He should be back soon and avoid a trip to the IL
  • d’Arnaud has three home runs since June 8 but is likely to lose playing time once Murphy is healthy
  • Marcell Ozuna has been batting fourth in Murphy’s absence
• Travis d’Arnaud is going to lose playing time because Eddie Rosario is red-hot at the plate
  • Rosario is batting seventh in the lineup and still sitting against lefties
  • Since the start of June, Rosario is slashing .350/.409/.817 with eight home runs including four straight games from the fourteenth to eighteenth
  • Rosario is showing glimpses of returning to his 2019 form and is worth adding in all formats
• Ozzie Albies is now hitting second in the Braves lineup
  • Albies is batting .267 on the year but has a .314 average since the start of June
  • His early season batting average is likely correlated to his .261 season-long BABIP.
  • Albies sweet spot percentage is the highest of his career and his launch angle is the lowest of his career (in a good way). I expect him to post averages closer to what he has in June compared to what he was posting before June
  • Matt Olson is now batting fifth for Atlanta

Washington Nationals

• Derek Hill is up from Triple-A and getting a chance to play every day in center field with Victor Robles on the IL
  • Hill was batting .324 at Triple-A prior to his promotion but has never found any success at the Major League level
  • Limited power and high ground ball rates make him a player I am not rushing to pick up
  • Alex Call was optioned to Triple-A
• Luis Garcia has continued his strong month of June
  • Garcia has hit safely in all but three games this month with an average of over .300
  • His ground ball rate remains extremely high as does his chase rate.
  • The best part of his game is a zone contact rate north of 90%. I do not expect him to continue batting over .300, but he is worth a look in deep leagues where you need middle infield help
• I do not think enough people are talking about the season Lane Thomas is having
  • He has 12 home runs, 7 stolen bases, and an average above .290
  • His .362 BABIP is likely unsustainable, but the rest of his metrics look very stable
  • He is not the flashiest pickup but is a strong add who will get consistent time in the lineup if you need help in the outfield

Miami Marlins

• Jean Segura landed on the IL opening a spot in the lineup for Jon Berti
  • Berti has just one stolen base since May 17 and does not have enough power to be fantasy relevant without stolen bases
  • He should not be added in any format even with the increased playing time
• Jazz Chisholm is rehabbing at Triple-A
  • Chisholm appears to be only a week or two away from returning which would remove Jonathan Davis from the lineup
  • Chisholm figures to slot back into the top half of the lineup upon his return
• Jesus Sanchez is making more contact, but driving the ball into the ground
  • Sanchez is batting cleanup against righties despite struggling in June primarily due to an average launch angle of 4.8-degrees
  • Sanchez’s plate discipline strides are encouraging, but he needs to hit more fly balls if he is going to maintain fantasy relevance

New York Mets

• Pete Alonso is back from the IL
  • Mark Vientos was optioned back to Triple-A as a result and does not hold any value in redraft leagues
  • Alonso remains a top fantasy option moving forward
• Daniel Vogelbach and Mark Canha are platooning
  • Vogelbach has two home runs since June 16 and is on the strong side of the platoon
  • He has shown plenty of power in the past, but I want to see his barrel rate increase before adding him in an OBP league where I am desperate for power
  • On the short side of the platoon, Mark Canha is not worth rostering
  • If this platoon works, Ronny Mauricio is likely going to be stuck in Triple-A for an extended period of time
• The bottom three in the lineup are now Jeff McNeil, Francisco Alvarez, and Brett Baty
  • McNeil moves down thanks to the return of Alonso and strong play of Tommy Pham
  • McNeil’s lineup spot remains safe despite mediocre results which makes him droppable in shallow leagues
  • Thanks to high whiff and chase rates, Alvarez profiles as a high-variance player who will continue to have hot and cold streaks throughout the season
• Eduardo Escobar was traded to the Angels
  • This ideally should open up more playing time for Brett Baty
  • There is a chance this could signal a promotion for Ronny Mauricio

NL Central

Chicago Cubs

• Mike Tauchman has retained his lineup spot even with Cody Bellinger returning
  • His .289 average continues to be inflated by a .364 BABIP with an elite 42% sweet spot percentage
  • Continuing to bat leadoff, there is some value in Tauchman’s profile as he will score more runs from that spot in the lineup
  • Bellinger is batting sixth in the lineup since returning and playing first base with Matt Mervis being optioned back to Triple-A. Mervis is not worth rostering at this point in redraft leagues.
• Nick Madrigal is playing every day with Patrick Wisdom landing on the IL
  • Madrigal still has zero home runs on the year and lacks any real offensive upside
  • He is not worth picking up unless you are looking for at-bats in an NL-only league
• Christopher Morel is batting seventh against righties and third against lefties
  • Morel is only striking out 16.9% of the time since the start of June and his stats are being brought down by a .205 BABIP
  • The power and speed are evident meaning that if Morel can keep the strikeouts in check he could be in for a monster season
  • Pick him up now if somebody dropped him during his cold stretch

St. Louis Cardinals

• Nolan Gorman is sliding down the lineup
  • He is now batting sixth or seventh most nights and is seeing fewer at-bats against left-handed starters
  • He is batting just .117 since the start of June with a strikeout rate over 40%. Much like Jarred Kelenic, Gorman’s time as a star might have been short-lived and he is no longer a must-roster in shallow leagues
• Dylan Carlson does not have an everyday role, but continues to see fairly regular playing time
  • Carlson is batting sixth or seventh and is slashing .294/.442/.588 since returning from the IL
  • The biggest thing fueling his power breakout is an increased pull percentage. If he continues to swing a hot bat, he could take more playing time away from either Tommy Edman or Nolan Gorman if Edman moves back to the infield
• Lars Nootbaar is batting third since returning from the IL
  • The biggest thing for Nootbaar is going to be whether he can keep the ball off the ground and improve his launch angle
  • His value is the highest in OBP leagues where his walks are more meaningful

Milwaukee Brewers

• Owen Miller’s consistent playing time has come to an end
  • Miller is still in the lineup fairly often but is in more of a utility role
  • Miller is batting just .188 since the start of June and is not worth rostering anymore
  • Raimel Tapia is batting seventh and playing right field against right-handed pitchers
  • There is not much offensive upside to Tapia’s game, but Sal Frelick could be a candidate to take playing time away from Tapia soon
• Jesse Winker is back off the IL and batting fifth or second with consistent playing time
  • Winker has just two hits since coming off the IL while striking out more than 50% of the time
  • He is a DFA candidate if these struggles continue and there is no reason to hold onto him in fantasy leagues
• Willy Adames might be breaking out
  • A two-homer night on Friday placed emphasis on a strong stretch of play recently
  • His BABIP sits down at .250 on the year which is likely to blame for much of his struggles
  • He is an interesting buy-low candidate

Cincinnati Reds

• Joey Votto is back and Wil Myers was DFA’d
  • Votto is batting sixth and playing every day against both lefties and righties early on
  • He is not going to add any steals, but he is crushing the ball since returning and has a strong track record of being an elite fantasy option
  • He is worth adding if you need help at 1B
• Jake Fraley is also back from the IL and batting fifth
  • He sits against lefties in favor of Nick Senzel but is now up to ten home runs and 12 steals in just 60 games
  • He is schedule dependent, but should absolutely be rostered as he gets to bat in the middle of the Reds’ lineup
• Elly De La Cruz hit for the cycle on Friday
  • De La Cruz is one of the most fascinating players in baseball to watch although fantasy owners should be wary
  • The skills are elite, but a .487 BABIP, 42.9 HR/FB%, and a 30.9% swinging strike rate point to impending regression
  • Not saying to sell high on EDLC, just be prepared for some rough stretches

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Henry Davis is up and playing every day
  • Davis is primarily playing right field and batting between fifth and seventh in the lineup
  • He has already hit a home run and added a stolen base and is a must-add
  • The strikeouts might stay high, but he is an elite talent that gets to play every day with catcher eligibility
• Nick Gonzales is also up from Triple-A
  • He struck out in two of three at-bats in his Major League debut which is possibly a sign of things to come
  • Gonzales has enticing raw tools, but has never been able to keep the strikeout rate in check at Triple-A
  • He is only worth a flier in deep leagues although he should get a chance to play every day
  • Ji Hwan Bae and Rodolfo Castro are the most likely players to lose playing time with Gonzales up in the Major Leagues

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers

• Michael Busch is up with Max Muncy landing on the IL
  • Busch is playing every day and batting ninth in the lineup
  • He has a -12.4-degree average launch angle since returning and is not worth rostering if he cannot get the ball in the air
  • Muncy is not expected to be out for long and Busch will likely be sent back down once he returns
• James Outman is seeing better results and has started four straight
  • His batting average has come back up, but that is fueled by a .500 BABIP and the strikeout rate remains above 40%
  • I am not picking Outman back up even with more playing time
• Miguel Vargas is batting just .158/.258/.316 since the start of June
  • His barrel rate and LD% have dropped, but most of the issue is a .163 BABIP
  • He should continue to be rostered in OBP leagues, but is a fine player to drop in standard category leagues

San Diego Padres

• Matt Carpenter has lost his role as the primary DH
  • Nelson Cruz and Rougned Odor are now splitting time
  • Cruz holds more upside if he starts playing more, but neither is worth rostering in the current playing time split
• Ha-Seong Kim is batting leadoff against lefties
  • Kim has hit safely in his last nine starts adding two home runs and two stolen bases in the process
  • Kim has excellent plate discipline skills and is a low variance player that is useful for 12-14 team fantasy leagues. He should be rostered as he continues to have consistent playing time
• Manny Machado has returned to Manny Machado form
  • He is batting .329/.351/.557 since June 5^th with four home runs
  • His season-long BABIP and HR/FB% have both been well below his career averages making this hot stretch believable
  • He should continue to be an elite fantasy option for the remainder of 2023

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Geraldo Perdomo is now batting leadoff in Arizona’s lineup
  • Perdomo is batting .313 since the start of June and .294 on the season
  • He has not hit a home run since May 28 but is an excellent source of average and OBP in fantasy leagues
  • Batting leadoff is a boost to his fantasy value
• Alek Thomas is back from Triple-A and playing every day
  • Thomas is batting seventh in the lineup most nights and was a favorite buy-low candidate of mine early in the season
  • He has hit safely in four of five games since returning and is worth picking up if you need OF help
  • Josh Rojas was optioned to Triple-A in a corresponding move
• Gabriel Moreno is getting more playing time recently
  • He is still splitting time with Carson Kelly, but Moreno seems to have a slight edge
  • Moreno is slashing just .170/.235/.213 since the start of June and is not worth picking up even with more playing time

San Francisco Giants

• Mike Yastrzemski was placed on the IL
  • The normal outfield now looks like Blake Sabol, Michael Conforto, and Luis Matos
  • Matos is batting toward the bottom of the lineup most nights and his biggest issue has been a high ground ball rate
  • Sabol should be rostered in more leagues as a player with catcher eligibility and regular playing time
• Casey Schmitt is on the short side of a platoon
  • Schmitt is still getting regular playing time in a utility role, but Brandon Crawford is drawing most of the starts batting eighth in the lineup
  • Schmitt is not worth rostering with inconsistent playing time

Colorado Rockies

• Coco Montes is starting to play more than Harold Castro although it still appears to be a platoon
  • Montes is striking out over 35% of the time since being promoted which will continue to limit his production
  • Neither player is worth rostering
• Jorge Alfaro is receiving the majority of starts at DH
  • Alfaro is batting fifth or sixth in the lineup most games
  • He continues to struggle with making consistent contact and does not figure to hold onto the DH job for long. I am not picking him up anywhere
  • Elehuris Montero is the most likely candidate to see additional playing time over Alfaro
• Ezequiel Tovar spent time on the paternity list this week but has since returned
  • Tovar continues to bat second in the lineup and has hit safely in 12/13 games
  • The BABIP likely remains unsustainable, but Tovar has a bright future ahead of him and should be rostered in all keeper leagues